Here’s a little insight from our friends at Covers.com looking at week one matchups. Super Bowl Champions opening on the road for the first time in a while has caused the line to be a little skewed. Even with a concert in Baltimore the game is in Denver and the Broncos with revenge on their mind, a mile in the air, have something to prove. That’s a lot of points for an opener.
The NFL Week 1 odds are about as fresh as your gym bag, having been on the board since the middle of summer.
While these spreads and totals have taken action over the past few months, the majority of money is still to come. We talk to oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com about some of the more intriguing opening NFL odds, line adjustments and where these numbers could close come kickoff.
The Thursday night opener has been up and down over the summer, with the latest wave of action coming in on the Ravens following Broncos LB Von Miller’s suspension and injuries to the Denver offensive line.
“On Sunday, we moved the line in Baltimore’s favor again to +7.5 as 70 percent of current action on the spread is backing the Super Bowl champs,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com tells Covers. “I think this line stays at -7.5 until kickoff on Thursday. Seven is too important a number and we don’t want to get middled by people who could buy off this number.”
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers – Open: +3, Move: +2.5, Move: +4
The Seahawks were the sexy offseason pick after a brilliant 2012 effort. Carolina, however, turned heads down the home stretch of the season, going 5-1 SU and ATS in the final six games.
Early action saw sharp money take Seattle but some books dropped this spread with money on the Panthers at home. Perry says this could end up being the biggest decision for the books in Week 1, with 86 percent of money siding with the Seahawks.
“We moved the line to -4 Sunday, as we are exposed so much on Seattle,” he says. “This line should stay at -4, until Sunday morning, where I could see us going to -4.5 to try and get some money on the Panthers.”
As you can see by the explanation above, it’s not about who should win the game, but how can they get money bet divided equally between the teams.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers – Open: -5, Move: -4.5, Move: -4
Up until last season, when New England trounced Tennessee in Week 1, the Super Bowl loser had failed to cover the spread in their opener in 12 straight seasons. Action has sided with San Francisco for this playoff rematch with the Packers, including early sharp money. According to Perry, nearly 70 percent of handle is on the 49ers.
This Sunday Night Football grudge match has hovered around a field goal most of the summer. According to Perry, about 60 percent of the action is on the Cowboys at home. Dallas won the season opener in New York last season but went a dismal 1-7 ATS as a host in 2012.
The Giants and Cowboys usually play a pretty high scoring close affair when they meet. New York, of course, is undefeated at JerryWorld, and that will sway the thinking of some folks. With Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff out for Dallas, the Giants might get a few more bucks bet in their favor. If Andre Brown didn’t go down, this line could have been pick’em.