Fantasy Football 2014: Five Regression Candidates

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Knowshon Moreno, RB, Miami Dolphins

There is more to Moreno’s new fantasy value than one might think. Obviously he has a sketchy injury history and can’t really be trusted to hold up for another full season, but most notably – the guy left the Broncos for the Dolphins.

Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are middling talents to be sure, but the blocking and play-calling in Miami has been atrocious. The Fins have focused on beefing up their offensive line going into 2014, but Moreno is in for a rude awakening. He’s not a “make something out of nothing” style runner.

Eric Decker, WR, New York Jets

Right up there with Moreno is Decker, but for mostly different reasons. Obviously he’s not a lock to catch 80+ balls and 10+ touchdowns when he leaves the good graces of Peyton Manning, but that’s especially not the case when he goes to New York to play with either Geno Smith or Michael Vick.

The Jets aren’t a good passing team. Heck, they aren’t very good on offense in general. Decker suddenly has tons of cash floating his way, has very little supporting talent around him, is in a new system and has a major downgrade at quarterback. And we want to use him as our WR2?

Decker is a very talented receiver who can excel as a WR2. If the Jets ask him to be their top guy and their quarterbacks struggle (and they will), he won’t return anything better than WR3 production. That’s fine if he falls in the draft and that’s all you expect from him, but that scenario us unlikely to play out on draft day.

Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland Browns

A trend is popping up here. Schematic and role changes can crush a player’s value. Their potential drops even more when there are major questions at the game’s most important position (quarterback). Like Dalton and Moreno, Cameron enjoyed a career year in 2013, but will now be rolling with a new quarterback in Manziel, a new offense and potentially a new role.

Cameron had done pretty much nothing in his career until Norv Turner’s vertical and tight end-friendly offense introduced him to stardom. Not knowing what Cameron will do in the new system is going to challenge fantasy owners all summer when it comes to nailing down his value.

He absolutely still has TE1 upside thanks to his own immense talent, but banking on him as your stud tight end won’t be a safe approach, as his numbers from a year ago can’t possibly be repeated in 2014.

This post comes from Justin Becker of FantasyFootballOverdose.com. You can follow him on Twitter @NFLRankings or the Fantasy Football Overdose Google+ Page. For more Premier Fantasy Football Projections visit Fantasy Football Overdose, a fantasy football blog.