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Back in the mid 1970’s, Stevie Wonder had a hit song called “Superstitious.” In my previous post I said that I was afflicted with this trait, and that if I picked the Bills to win I’d happily eat crow again. I also said that the final score would be 27-24. Damn, I’m good.

In our previous post, we hit on a number of factors. The Bills were opportunistic on defense with a +11 turnover rate. We noted that the G-Men would have to play error free football and force pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick in order to limit Buffalo’s big play offense and come out ahead. We also noted that the Giants would have to establish a running game while limiting Fred Jackson’s yardage from scrimmage. And now, the relevant portion of our show.

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T Demetrius Bell, CB Aaron Williams, LB Chris Kelsay, WR Donald Jones, LB Shawn Merriman

Out for the Giants:

DE Justin Tuck, OG Chris Snee, RB Brandon Jacobs, FB Henry Hynoski

Here is what they had to tell me about the Bills:

Has the defense for the Bills been lucky or has the scheme evolved to a point of ball hawking consistency?

A little of both. The Bills have had some lucky bounces go their way, no doubt. However, this defense has some legitimate ball hawks. In
particular, the Bills have a trio of real playmakers at safety – George Wilson, Jairus Byrd, and Bryan Scott. Those three seem to make gamechanging plays with regularity. Wilson has been on an absolute tear lately, with an interception in each of the last three games to go along with a ton of tackles. In general, this is not an especially talented defense but it is a smart one that will make you pay for mistakes.

Fred Jackson, how do you stop him?

Excellent question. I really don’t know. This isn’t even me saying this as a Bills fan, but Jackson has been amazing in 2011. Poor blocking by the offensive line hasn’t stopped him. Getting hit in the backfield 75% of the time hasn’t stopped him. Jackson’s just been a man possessed so far, seemingly breaking a few tackles every play. He’ll never win it unless Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady both slip into comas, but Jackson could be an MVP candidate this year. He’s been that good.

The offense looks dangerously hard to stop, can the Giants get to Fitz if he’s running 3 step drops and getting the ball out quickly? What are the Giants supposed to do to stop the Bills?

It’s gonna be tough to sack Fitz – he’s only been sacked three times all year. But it’s not necessarily always a good thing, as Fitz tends to throw it quick whether someone’s open or not. If you want to stop the Bills offense, you have two options: play physical bump-and-run coverage and get Fitz and the receivers out of sync. You could also try to confuse Fitz with some sort of zone blitz scheme. In his hurry to get the ball out, he’ll sometimes just throw it right to a linebacker.

This question may be a bit overdue but…. are the Bills for real? What’s their final record looking to you?

I don’t think the Bills are elite yet, but they’re a solid team. The defense is still a big question mark, and if the unit doesn’t improve or stops forcing turnovers it’s going to eventually catch up to them. However, there’s certainly enough talent here to contend for the playoffs. I’ll say they finish somewhere between 8-8 and 11-5. The rest of the schedule is tough, but the fact Buffalo still has two games left against the Dolphins helps.

X-factor for the Bills?

The Bills’ wide receivers. The Buffalo receiving corps has been absolutely decimated by trades and injuries. Lee Evans was dealt before season to Baltimore, Marcus Easley and Roscoe Parrish are out for the season, and now Donald Jones is out for at least a month. So now what was once probably the deepest position on the roster is a big concern. Two guys who were cut in earlier in the season – Naaman Roosevelt and Ruvell Martin – are now the #3 and #4 receivers on the team. David Nelson, a big but slow slot receiver, is now being forced outside to the #2 role. Brad Smith (a quarterback) and C.J. Spiller (a running back) will also have to play some receiver. If no one steps up and helps out star WR Stevie Johnson, the high-flying Bills passing attack is going to grind to a halt pretty quickly.

X-factor for the Giants?

Eli Manning. This is mostly true with any NFL team, but it’s especially true against the Bills: If you don’t turn it over, you probably win. If Manning avoids giving the Bills’ ballhawking safeties a chance to make plays, the Giants should be able to score quite a few points in this one.

Final prediction?

I actually might have liked the Bills a lot more here had the Giants not lost last week. This is a Giants team with a sense of urgency, while the Bills are banged up and probably looking forward to their bye week next week. I’ll say the Giants right the ship a bit with a 34-24 win. I certainly wouldn’t mind being wrong, of course.

Wow — that is some alliteration right there…. Anyway here is what they wanted to know about the Giants:

1) What the heck happened last week against the Seahawks? Was it just a bad game, or do the Giants have some glaring issues Seattle exposed?

I think the giants are in a transition year and had some glaring things like lack of blocking and run game bite them a bit. That said, they nearly won it inside 2 minutes. Happened to go the other way. This week I look for more consistency and better defense to keep the Giants ahead of the Bills an not play catch up.

2) A lot of Giants won’t be active for this weeks game: RB Brandon Jacobs, DL Justin Tuck and G Chris Snee among others. Which absence will create the biggest problem for the Giants?

In the trenches on both sides of the ball. Jacobs is the least of our concerns. Tuck and Snee are All-Pro type players and extremely vital to e identity of be Giants. Will be interesting to see the offensive line that much worse off, and I hope Kiwanuka plays some DE on place of Tuck this week to help stop be run and get more pressure on the passer.

3) WR Victor Cruz has been a monster in the past three games (17 catches, 369 yards, 21.7 avg, 3 TD). Are we seeing a superstar develop?

Yes, he’s been outstanding as a wideout and makes big plays every game. With Nicks opposite and Manningham in the mix too, the Giants have a potent WR trio. Even mores than when Smith was here.

4) Besides Cruz, are there any other young Giants playing well that are still maybe flying under the radar?

LB Jacquain Williams has been good. JPP has been great. And DT Dwayne Hendricks will join Linval Joseph on the line this week for this first time. Could be a very interesting game with the reliance on young players on defense.

5) The Giants have certainly been able to move the ball through the air, but the running game has struggled. Has the problem been with the offensive line, the running backs, play calling, or some combination of those factors?

Line changes more than anything. AB44 still knows how to run, play calling occasionally has been a little stagnant but at times it’s been stellar too. Right now the GMEN need to execute better at every level to succeed on the ground. Starts with blocking.

6) Any other storylines or players to watch out for during the game?

I think TE Jake Ballard could have another huge game, Eli has hit him for several big gashes and clutch TD’s. I want to see more from him.

7) How about a prediction for the game?

I think the Giants win by a score and figure some things out. 31-24 Giants.

On Offense the Bills rank third in points scored with almost 33.  They are 4th in rushing yards and 13th in passing.  They are led by Ivy League (HARVARD) QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who seems to have found a system he can work within.  Head coach Chan Gailey has turned this part of the team around.  Fitzpatrick  now completes 66% of his passes.  He has 10 TD’s with 4 INT’s.  He has not fumbled the ball so far this year.  He is a possession Qb with the ability to throw the ball deep.  Again the stats say he averages 7 yards a throw, but he has only been sacked three times, and has thrown for a total of over 1200 yards.  Stevie Johnson and Fred Jackson are the stars of this offense.  The Bills know how to spread the ball around through the air, and can pound you on the ground.  This is a true west coast offense, one that can give the Giants fits if they are not careful.

Finally we face a team without a Special teams nightmare waiting to happen.  The Bills average 7 yards a return on punts with a long of 10, and 24 yards on kickoffs with a long of 25.  Hopefully the Giants can win a field position battle this week.

Giants need to avoid the turnovers this week, and turn both of the sack stats of Buffalo around.   The Giants should be able to keep Eli upright against a team with a total of 4 sacks, and hopefully can have Ryan Fitzpatrick visit the Meadowlands turf more times this game than he has all year…it would go as a big plus towards winning this game.

With Baas back, and possibly no Jacobs again on Sunday, you can expect Ahmad Bradshaw to put up some big numbers in both rushing and possibly even receiving.

Baas under Center

Feel confident starting Bradshaw this week for all you fantasy football owners.

For more news, updates, and analysis follow me on Twitter:

http://twitter.com/erobertsny

The Bills moved up to the #1 ranked team according to Football Outsiders this week. The Giants fell from #6 last week to #12 this week. Ouch…

Clipped from: www.footballoutsiders.com (share this clip)

Buffalo still rules the roost after a victory over Philadelphia. Below the Bills, however, we have teams shooting way up (San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Minnesota) and dropping way down (Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Houston)

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Eight different teams are listed with a greater than 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. Meanwhile, the four teams with the strongest chance to make the playoffs are now in the NFC: San Francisco, Green Bay, Detroit, and New Orleans.

The Giants are going to have their hands full this week, and if they don’t watch out the rest of the season could be in jeopardy if they don’t iron some kinks out of the run game, the offensive line, and the turnover troll whose head popped back up last game after a nice hiatus.

via Buffalo Sports Daily:

According to a reliable source close to the situation, Buffalo Bills linebacker Shawne Merriman was busted for carrying steroids near the United States border late Thursday night, July 28 on the eve of Bills’ training camp.

According to the source, while trying to cross Canada back into the United States, Merriman was detained  by United States Customs shortly after 2:00am.  There, the source tells me steroids were found in his possession. He was not arrested and booked because from what I’m told, simply being in the possession of the substance is not technically illegal.

I’m certainly no legal analyst or NFL league rules expert, and I don’t know what, if any ramifications simply being caught in possession of a steroid substance will carry. I can’t and won’t speculate if Merriman has actually taken steroids anytime recently, but my source says he was caught with them in his possession.

So no confirmation that Merriman has taken Roids, in fact more distance than anything on that particular stance.  But the rumor is an interesting one nonetheless.