It has been 21 weeks since the 2012 NFL Season began and there are just two teams remaining, the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers. This is also the beginning of an era for one team and the end of an era for another. The 49ers have a brand new superstar in QB Colin Kaepernick. He looks to be the final ingredient needed for the already high-powered 49ers to once again become a perennial powerhouse and a regular visitor to the playoffs. On the other side of the field, The Ravens are losing their superstar, team leader, and source of inspiration, Linebacker Ray Lewis to retirement. Ray Lewis has been selected to the Pro Bowl 13 times, won NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 2000 and 2003, won one Super Bowl and was named Super Bowl MVP. Clearly, he is irreplaceable. The Ravens may also be losing Safety Ed Reed to retirement. He has had been selected to eight Pro Bowls, he was the 2004 NFL Defensive Player of the Year,  he has won one Super Bowl, he has the NFL record for the two longest interception returns (106 yards in 2004 and 108 yards in 2008), and he holds the all-time NFL record for interception return yards, currently at 1,506. Ed Reed is also irreplaceable. The loss of Ray Lewis and the possible loss of Ed Reed does not guarantee the demise of the Ravens, however, there will surely be some loss of productivity in their defense and a short time of adjustment.

No matter what happens next season, it looks like we’re going to have a great game this Sunday. Both teams are very physical and I expect a hard-hitting game with lots of great plays. I also expect this to be a pretty close game, as does Las Vegas. The odds in Las Vegas opened at 49ers giving 5.0 and 49.0 O/U. The current odds are 49ers giving 3.5 and 47 O/U.

Here’s my analyis:

Ravens vs. 49ers  Super Bowl XLVII – Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
The 49ers will win this game in a hard-fought battle. If there is one defense that can stop the 49ers then it is the Ravens’ defense. In the playoffs they have achieved 82.3 tackles per game, 2 sacks per game, 1.67 interceptions per game, and 1.3 forced fumbles per game. The problem is, in two playoff games, the 49ers have 36.5 points per game, 476 total yards per game, and 236 rushing yards per game. These numbers would be huge in back to back regular season games but to achieve these numbers back to back against playoff teams is amazing. I suspect the San Francisco sports fans, who were just treated to a World Series Championship, will soon be celebrating a Super Bowl Championship as well.

Find me on Twitter @JeffEllisRocks

My playoff record is an abysmal 3-5.  This week is my last chance to turn it around.

Niners @ Falcons Niners will win. I despise the Niners and I really want them to lose this game. They are very dynamic and I don’t think the Falcons can keep up with the Niners offense. Atlanta has a great offense but the Niners have a great defense and they will slow down Atlanta’s offense just enough to outscore them.

Ravens @ Patriots I like the Patriots here. The Ravens defense is very strong right now and I have no doubts that they will rip some heads off today. I’m concerned about the Ravens strength. They haven’t had a week off  in eleven weeks and they played a double-overtime game on five days’ rest last week. The Patriots have the best offense in the league, they are playing at home, they are playoff veterans,  and they had an extra week of rest during the Wildcard games. I expect the Patriots to run away with the game starting just after the middle of the third quarter.

I was 2-2 last week. I’m looking for  a 4-0 weekend. I originally picked the Colts to win but when Bruce Arians was placed in the hospital I changed my pick to Ravens. I was not able to update this on GmenHQ. The non-believers can confirm the change at http://www.beattheinsiders.com. You can find me there as jefe777.

I don’t think the picks this week are as easy as many people seem to think they are. Let’s take a look.

Ravens @ Broncos I’m going with Denver. In the regular season, the Broncos outscored the Ravens 30.1 points per game to 24.9 points per game and Denver is arriving to the playoffs with an extra week of rest and an 11-game winning streak. If you read my posts regularly you’ll know that I’m a big fan of teams with momentum. The Broncos have the momentum of a tidal wave right now. The Ravens defense is probably the healthiest it has been all season so they can resist that tidal wave but they won’t be able to stop it. The Ravens defense gave up 21.5 points per game this season with some key players missing so they do have a decent defense. However, the Broncos defense is still a better defense giving up just 18.1 points per game. Their are two other factors that make me pick the Broncos. First, the Ravens are entering this game with just a five day rest after a hard fought game last week. Second, the Ravens live at sea level and will be playing in the thin air of Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium.

Packers @ Niners I’m picking the Packers. One obvious reason to pick the Packers is they know how to win in the playoffs, and that’s a fact. What I really like about the Packers is they are very healthy right now. Rogers has all of his receivers available now and all of them have seen action this season. In addition, the Green Bay defense has not been healthier all season than it is now. I believe this defense can keep Niners QB Colin Kaepernick contained in the backfield and force him to make bad throws. The Packers D had a very respectable 18 interceptions in the regular season and they’ll be prowling for more this week.

Seahawks @ Falcons I like Seahawks. They have the best defense in the league and they’ve now won six games in a row and three of those were on the road. Of those three road wins, one game was against the Bears and the other was in the playoffs against the Redskins last week.

Texans @ Patriots I have to take the Patriots. Again, the Patriots have proven time and time again that they know how to win in the playoffs. They also have the most powerful offense in the league and a solid defense that is tied with Houston as the ninth ranked in points allowed, 20.7 per game. The Texans are good team but I don’t believe that can rise to this challenge.

I finished the regular season at 172-84 (67%) and that put me in third place against the fourteen ESPN experts. I expect to do just as well in the playoffs. Here are my thoughts for this week.

Bengals @ Texans I like the Bengals. The ESPN Power Rankings state, “The Bengals have allowed an average of 12.8 points over the past eight games, and their defense has scored a touchdown the past three weeks. (Hensley)”, and that is huge. Teams that arrive to the playoffs with a lot of momentum tend to be victorious. The Bengals have also won three in a row and seven of their last eight. The Texans were 11-1 in week 13 and then lost three of their last four games. When you look more closely at their season you’ll see they struggled in all of their last seven games including the four wins. This is not the type of performance I like to see in a team heading into the playoffs.

Vikings @ Green Bay I like the Packers. These teams split there regular season games, both teams winning at home. This home field advantage when playing each other gives the Packers the edge this time around. The Packers have two other advantages. First they have a lot of playoff experience so I fully expect them to play at a very high level. Second, the receiving core is now as healthy as it has been all season which means that Aaron Rogers will probable put on a passing clinic today. Yes, Adrian Peterson is a big concern and he will not be shut down by the Packers. I do, however, believe that the Packers can contain him enough to let Aaron Rodgers’ passing clinic outscore the Vikings.

Colts @ Ravens I like the Colts. They have won two in a row and five of their last six games. That is the kind of momentum I like to see in playoff teams. The Ravens have lost four of their last six games. To be fair, three of the Ravens last four losses were against teams that are now in the playoffs. Only one of the Colts last five wins was against a team now in the playoffs. This says to me that the Ravens are currently unable to beat playoff-quality teams and the Colts currently have a winning mindset. The return of the Ravens’ 13-time Pro Bowler LB Ray Lewis will certainly help the team but I don’t see him as the complete solution to the Ravens’ recent failures.

Seahawks @ Redskins I like the Redskins. This is the most exciting game of the weekend. We’re going to watch two outstanding rookie QBs try to lead their teams to a playoff win. The probability of  seeing a rookie QB get to the playoffs is extremely small and now we’re guaranteed to see a rookie QB win his first playoff game. I believe RGIII will be that QB. Both teams enter the playoffs with a ton of momentum. The Redskins have won seven in a row and the Seahawks have won five in a row. The Seahawks are an excellent team and their road game performance is their weakness. They were just 3-5 on the road in the regular season and lost their last two road games. Compare this to the Redskins who are 5-3 at home and have won all of their last five home games. I believe we have to pick the Redskins to win. I predict the Redskins will win 24-20.

13-3 last week!! That puts me at 159-81 (.663) for the season and I’m still in third versus the ESPN Experts and I’m expecting to have another big week. Picking winners for week 17 is very tricky because it is hard to determine which teams are motivated to win and which have a lack of motivation. Some teams that have clinched a playoff birth are more concerned about resting key players and limiting injuries. Some teams that have clinched a playoff birth are playing for home field advantage. Some teams cannot make the playoffs but are still relevant because they have an opportunity to be a spoiler. Some teams are fighting to finish at .500. Some teams are above .500, didn’t make the playoffs, and have given up on the season. Let’s try to make some sense of week 17.

Buccaneers @ Falcons I like the Falcons. The Falcons have won the NFC South division title and they’ve secured home field advantage for the playoffs. This means they could slack of this game with no consequences. I believe they’ll still show up to play for the home fans and defeat the Buccaneers who have currently lost five games in a row.

Jets @ Bills I like the Bills. Both teams have struggled this season but the Jets are a three-ring circus and in the center ring this week is QB Mark Sanchez. He was benched for the third-string QB last week and now finds himself starting for a team that will most likely trade him in the off season. I think the Bills will work hard to end the season on a high note at home.

Bengals @ Ravens I like the Bengals because they’re really hot right now. They’ve won two in row and six of the last seven games. The Ravens had a real nice win over the Giants last week but they lost the previous three games in a row.

Bears @ Lions I like the Bears. The Bears are 9-6 and to get to the playoffs they need a win today and a Minnesota Vikings loss. The Lions are 4-11 and just 2-5 at home.

Jaguars @ Titans I like the Titans at home. The Jaguars are tied for the worst record in the league at 2-13 and I’m certain that the Titans would like to finish the season with a win after going 5-10 thus far.

Texans @ Colts The Colts win at home. The Texans have struggled a bit over the last three games winning just one game. The win was at home against the Colts but I feel like the Texans are coasting into the playoffs unlike the highly-motivated Colts who have won four of the last five games.

Panthers @ Saints The Saints will win. They are 4-3 at home and are looking for a win to get them to .500. The Panthers are 3-4 on the road.

Eagles @ Giants I like the Giants to win. The Eagles narrowly defeated the Giants 19-17 in week four and they won’t pull that off again this season. The Eagles have been a disaster all season and they are 2-5 on the road. The Giants have fallen apart at the end of the season and have won just 2 of the last seven games. The upside for the Giants is they are 5-2 at home and if they win today they can make the playoffs if the Redskins, Bears, and Vikings lose. Good luck with that, Giants.

Browns @ Steelers Steelers will win. The Steelers are 4-3 at home. The Browns are 1-6 on the road.

Chiefs @ Broncos Broncos win. The Broncos have won ten in a row and the Chiefs are 1-6 on the road.

Packers @ Vikings I like the Packers. This a tough pick because the Vikings clinch a playoff spot with a win and the Packers have already clinched a playoff spot but will secure a bye next week if they win today. I like the Packers because they held the Vikings to 14 points and three scoreless quarters just four weeks ago.

Dolphins @ Patriots I like the Patriots. They are 11-4, they have won the AFC East, they are 5-2 at home, and they always play strong until the last whistle of their regular season is blown. Dolphins are 2-5 on the road.

Raiders @ San Diego Both teams have really struggled this year. The Raiders have chosen to give QB Terrelle Pryor his first NFL start since the Sugar Bowl in 2011. This is a good move for the Raiders but I still like the Chargers to put together a win at home.

Cardinals @ Niners The Niners will win. If the Niners win and Seattle loses then they will be the NFC West Champs. Cardinals are 1-6 on the road and 5-10 overall.

Rams @ Seahawks The Seahawks are 7-0 at home and will win the NFC West today with a win and a Niners’ loss.

Cowboys @ Redskins The Redskins will win. The winner of this game will be the NFC Champion. The Redskins have won six in a row and defeated the Cowboys 38-31 in week 11. The Cowboys are notorious for losing in big games.

PART ONE

8-8 last week, and nothing to brag about there. Like the Giants, I will return to my winning ways this week.

Falcons @ Lions Falcons win. The 12-2 Falcons should crush the 4-10 Lions. The Falcons have clinched their division but they need another win to help secure home field advantage.

Saints @ Cowboys I like the underdog Saints. They want to win two in a row to finish the season at 8-8. Also, this is the Saints’ last opportunity to be significant this season. If they beat the Cowboys then the Cowboys will almost certainly miss the playoffs. I also don’t think the Cowboys can squeak out another win. They’ve had very close games recently and I don’t think that team can continue winning like that. I also like the Saints’ +1 turnover ratio compared the Cowboys’ -9 turnover ratio.

Titans @ Packers Packers win. The Packers are 10-4, 6-1 at home, and have won eight of their last nine games.  Tennessee is 5-9 and 2-5 on the road.

Colts @ Chiefs The Colts will win. The Colts are 9-5 and can clinch a playoff spot this week. The Chiefs are 2-12.

PART TWO

Bills @ Dolphins I like the Dolphins. They are 4-3 at home and the Bills are 2-5 on the road. The Bills have lost two games in a row and have lost RB Fred Jackson for the remainder of the season.

Chargers @ Jets Take the Chargers. The Jets have benched their number one and number two QBs and number three QB, a rookie, Greg McElroy will start. The Jets are missing too many key players to be able to support a rookie QB.

Redskins @ Eagles Redskins will win. They 8-6, 4-3 on the road, they are fighting for a playoff spot, and they’ve won five games in a row. The Eagles are 4-10 and 2-5 at home.

Bengals @ Steelers I like the Steelers. If  the Steelers beat the Bengals today then they are still in the running for a playoff spot. I expect the veterans on the Steelers to rise to the occasion.

Rams @ Buccaneers I like the Rams. They’ve won three of their last four, including a win against the Niners, and the Buccaneers have lost four in a row. The Buccaneers’ are 3-4 at home so there’s no home field advantage for them.

Raiders@ Panthers I like the Panthers. Carolina is coming on strong at the end of the season. They’ve now won three of the last four games. Raiders have won one of the last seven games.

Patriots @ Jaguars Take the Patriots. The Patriots are looking to secure a bye in the playoffs and home field advantage. They also are the number one offense scoring 36.1 points per game versus the Jaguars’ 15.6 points per game (31st in NFL).

Vikings @ Texans Texans win. The Vikings are a good team at 8-6 but they are 2-5 on the road. The Vikings are a one-man show. RB Adrian Peterson has helped them achieve 160.2 rushing yards per game which is fourth in the NFL. They are only gaining 168.1 passing yards per game which is 32nd in the NFL. Since running is the only thing they can do I don’t see them winning because they’ll be running straight into the Texans’ fifth ranked rushing defense which is giving up a stingy 93.2 yards per game.

Browns @ Broncos I like the Broncos. Broncos are 11-3 and 5-1 at home. Browns are 5-9 and 1-5 on the road.

Bears @ Cardinals The Bears are having a lot of problems right now but I see them pulling it together this week as they make a final push for a playoff spot.

Giants @ Ravens I like the Giants. This is an interesting game. Both teams are having late season problems. The Ravens have lost three in a row and the Giants have lost four of the last six games. The Ravens have clinched a playoff spot and the Giants must win this game and the next to get to the playoffs. The Giants will win for two reasons. First, the Giants have a history of playing very well when their backs are against the wall. Second, the Ravens already have a playoff spot and I don’t think they have much motivation to win this game.

Niners @ Seahawks I like the Seahawks. The Seahawks have won five of their last six games, they are 6-0 at home, and they are fighting for a playoff spot. The Niners have already clinched a playoff spot. Statistically these teams are very well matched but I’m giving the edge to the home team.

9-7 last week. An embarrassing performance. When making my picks last week many of the games looked like no-brainers to me. Clearly, I should have been much more careful in my analysis. I’m now 138-70 for the season and still in third place against the ESPN “Experts”. My picks for week 15 are listed below.

Bengals @ Eagles I like the Bengals. The Bengals are hot and have won 4 of their last 5 games. They lost to the Cowboys by just one point in the last seconds of the game last week. Philly has not faired as well. They have lost 8 of their last 9 games. There is no home field advantage for the Eagles as they are 2-4 at home and the Bengals are 4-2 on the road. The Bengals lead the Eagles in points fielded and have fewer points allowed. The Bengals have a 0 turnover ratio versus the Eagles’ -19 turnover ratio.

Giants @ Falcons I like the Giants. Atlanta’s loss to Carolina last week shows they are much more vulnerable than many people have expected. Carolina entered the game 3-9 and Atlanta was 10-2. This should have been a lop-sided win with Atlanta crushing Carolina. Instead the Falcons lost 30-20. The story was different for the Giants. They entered their game 7-5 facing the 4-8 Saints who have a very high-powered offense. The Giants soundly defeated the Saints 52-27. The Falcons have split their two games with the Saints. Against the Falcons, the Giants have the edge, statistically. The Giants are scoring 29 points per game and the Falcons are scoring 26 points per game. The Giants are giving up 20 points per game and the Falcons are giving up 19 points per game. The Giants have +16 turnovers and the Falcons have +6 turnovers. There is more to the story though. I like the Giants to win for three reasons. First, this is a big game and the Giants know how to prepare for and execute in big games. They beat the Niners 26-3 in San Francisco in week 6 and beat the Packers 38-10 in week 12. Second, The Giants’ last 15 offensive TDs have been scored by seven different players. This means the Giants have many offensive weapons available to them and I don’t think the Falcons can cover everyone. Third, five Giants players scored TDs against the Saints last week and I think that everyone was very happy to see Wilson have a break out game in which he returned a kick for a TD, scored a rushing TD, and ran for 100 yds. The win last week against the Saints created a lot of excitement for the Giants and this will carry them past the Falcons and into the playoffs.

Packers @ Bears I like the Packers. The Packers have won two games in a row and seven of their last eight. Chicago is struggling and has lost four of their last five games. Chicago is real tough at home with a 5-2 record at Soldier Field but the Bears are dealing with too many defensive injuries to stop the surging Packers offense.

Redskins @ Browns Redskins will win. The Redskins have won four in a row and the last two wins were against the Giants and Ravens, both are very good teams. The Redskins offense appears to be hitting its stride and the defense is confusing the heck out of QBs. The Browns have won three in a row but only the win against the Steelers showed any significant skill from the Browns.

Vikings @ Rams I like the Rams. The Rams have won three in a row and are 4-3 at home. The Vikings have won just two of their last six games and are 1-5 on the road. The Rams will need to contain Vikings RB Adrian Peterson to win this game.

Jaguars @ Dolphins I like the Dolphins. Jaguars QB Chad Henne will be looking for big win against his former team, the Dolphins, but Miami is a better team than the Dolphins, and not by much. Both teams have lost two in a row and I expect the Dolphins to break their losing streak in front of their home crowd. Jaguars starting RB Maurice Jones-Drew may return this week for his first game since week six. This would make a win more difficult for the Dolphins but their defense
is giving up a very respectable 102 rushing yards per game (9^th in NFL) so I believe they can contain MJD.

Buccaneers @ Saints I like the Buccaneers. Both teams have lost three games in a row. Both teams are scoring 27 points per game. Unfortunately for the Saints, they are giving up 29 points per game versus the Buccaneers 24 points per game. The Buccaneers also have +12 turnovers and the Saints have -4 turnovers.

Broncos @ Ravens I like the Broncos to win. The Broncos have won eight in a row, have clinched their division title, and their looking for a few more wins to lockup home field advantage. The Ravens are a good team but they’ve lost two in a row and this week they replaced their offensive coordinator with their QB coach who is now in his first offensive coordinator role.

Colts @ Texans I like the Texans to win. The Texans are 5-1, have clinched their division title, they have the best record in the conference (11-2), and like the Broncos, they’re looking for a few more wins to gain home field advantage in the playoffs.

Seahawks @ Bills I like the Seahawks. The Seahawks are just 2-5 on the road but the Bills are just 3-3 at home. The Seahawks proved that they can now win on the road with a nice 23-17 OT win against the Bear two weeks ago. Seattle is making a great run at the playoffs winning four of their last five and I think they’ll beat the Bills in Buffalo.

Lions @ Cardinals I like the Lions to win. The Cardinals beat the Seahawks and the Patriots in weeks one and two and went on to a 4-0 record. Since then they’ve lost nine games in a row. The Lions have lost five in a row and are just 4-9, but I like the Lions to win because they’ve had some very close games against some excellent opponents in those five losses in a row.

Panthers @ Chargers I like the Chargers. Both teams are struggling and both teams came away with nice wins last week. I like the Chargers because they’re a little bit more consistent and they’re playing at home.

Steelers @ Cowboys I like the Steelers. They are chasing a wild card spot and this team has the experience to win at the end of the season when every game counts. One might argue that the Cowboys have won four of their last five but let’s take a look at those games. They beat the Eagles twice, like everyone should, and then won in overtime to the Browns and beat the Bengals in the last few seconds. It is true that a win is a win but I’m not impressed with the Cowboys performance in these wins. The Steelers have beaten the Giants, the Ravens, the Bengals, and the Redskins this season so I think they can beat the Cowboys.

Chiefs @ Raiders Both teams stink and I like the Raiders to win. Statistically they are a little better and they are playing at home.

Niners @ Patriots I could go into great detail about this game but I’m going to make it simple. The Patriots will win because they are very experienced at playing big games and they proved this last week when they beat the Texans 42-14.

Jets @ Titans I like the Jets. They’ve won two in a row and have an outside chance of making the playoffs. The Titans have lost three in a row and have nothing to play for.

10-4 last week and 129-63 overall. Let’s get right into week 14.

Broncos @ Raiders Broncos win. Broncos are 9-3, and the Raiders are 3-9.

Rams @ Bills I like the Rams. When I look at the numbers I find this game to be a tough decision. The deciding factor for me is the Bills injury list. They took heavy losses in their win against Jacksonville last week.

Cowboys @ Bengals The Bengals will win. The Bengals offense has been good all season and now they have a defense to go along with it. The Bengals defense has given up just one TD in the last three games. However, I expect a close game because the Cowboys have won 3 of their last four and have scored 32.5 points per game over that four game period.

Chiefs @ Browns Both teams have a long list of issues and I like the Browns to win. They’ve won two in a row and are 3-3 at home. The Chiefs have won just two games all season, they are 1-4 on the road, and they have the second lowest points scored in the NFL, 15.5 per game. The Browns also have the advantage in turnovers. The Browns are +7 turnovers and the Chiefs are -16.

Titans @ Colts The Colts will win. The Colts are 8-4 and 5-1 at home. Titans are 4-8 and 2-4 on the road.

Bears @ Vikings I like the Bears. This will be a real good game to watch. It is a divisional game and the Vikings need to win this home game to stay in the playoff race. They are currently two games behind the 8-4 Packers and Bears. With a 5-1 record at home the Vikings are really tough against visiting teams. I still like the Bears to win because they beat the Vikings 28-10 in week 12, Vikings #1 receiver, Percy Harvin, is on IR, and the Bears have +16 turnovers versus the Vikings’ -6 turnovers.

Chargers @ Steelers Steelers win. Steelers are are 7-5 and 4-1 at home. Chargers are 4-8 and 2-4 on the road.

Eagles @ Buccaneers Buccaneers win. The Eagles are 3-9 and 1-5 on the road. The Eagles have -18 turnovers and the Buccaneers have +11 turnovers.

Ravens @ Redskins I like the Ravens. The Redskins beat the Giants last week but they were not impressive. The Redskins scored just one offensive TD as a result of a designed play. The other offensive TD was a result of a fumble recovery. In addition, the Giants made plenty of mental errors. I expect the 9-3 Ravens to have learned from what the Giants showed us and improve on that formula.

Falcons @ Panthers Falcons are 11-1, Panthers are 3-9

Jets @ Jaguars I like the Jaguars. Jaguars, QB Chad Henne is facing an old foe, the Jets defense. Both teams have many issues on offense and defense but I like Chad Henne (1-0 at home) to rally the troops at home in the hopes of finishing strong and reigniting his career.

Niners @ Dolphins Niners win. The Niners are 8-3 and on another playoff run. The have a 4-2 record on the road and there defense is giving up just 14.3 points per game, best in the NFL. On the other side of the field the Dolphins are just 3-3 at home and are scoring just 18.9 points per game, 27^th in the league.

Saints @ Giants The Giants will win. The Giants are 7-5, 4-2 at home, and have +14 turnovers. The Saints are 5-7, 2-4 on the road, and -2 turnovers. In addition, the Saints are just 1-3 against top ten defenses this season (measured by points per game).

Cardinals @ Seahawks Seahawks will win. The Seahawks are 7-5 and 5-0 at home. The Cardinals are 4-8 and 1-5 at home.

Lions @ Packers Packers win. Packers are 8-4 and 5-1 at home. Lions are 4-8 and 2-4 on the road.

Texans @ Patriots Now this is a Monday Night Football Game! The Patriots are scoring 35.8 points per game, first in the NFL, and the Texans are scoring 29.3 points per game, second in the NFL. The Patriots are giving up 21.7 points per game, tied for 14^th in the NFL and the Texans are giving up 18.4 points per game, 4^th in the league. Patriots have given up just 19.3 points per game over the last five games. Patriots have +24 turnovers and the Texans have +14 turnovers. Patriots are 4-1 at home and the Texans are 6-0 on the road. How the heck do you pick this game?? I am going with experience and home field advantage. The Patriots just love playing at home and they have plenty of experience in big games like this. Patriots will win.

I was 12-4 last week and only one ESPN Expert, Tom Jackson, equaled my record. I’m 119-57 for the season which puts me in a solid third place. I have a real good feeling about this week and I’m hoping to catch up to Chris Mortensen who is in second at 124-52. Here are the picks:

Saints @ Falcons I like the Falcons. Both offenses are strong with the Falcons scoring 27 points per game and the Saints scoring 28 points per game. The defenses are another story. The Falcons are giving up just 20 points per game, 6^th in the NFL, while the Saints are giving up 28 points per game, 28^th in the NFL. Now, I realize that the Falcons have not been dominating their opponents but when I see that they are 5-0 at home and the Saints are 2-3 on the road, I come to the conclusion that Atlanta will win this game.

Jaguars @ Bills I like the Jaguars to win if Chad Henne starts. In the last two weeks, with Chad Henne as a starter, the Jaguars have averaged 31 points per game. The Bills have averaged just 16 points per game over the last two weeks. These teams have equally poor defenses so I’m making my selection based upon which team has the hot offense, and that is, with no uncertainty, the Jaguars.

Seahawks @ Bears Bears will definitely win. The Bears are 5-1 at home and the Seahawks are 1-5 on the road. Also, the Bears looked great last weekend. At the half they were ahead of the Vikings 25-3 and finished 28-10.

Colts @ Lions I am going with the Colts here. The Colts have won five of their last six games. The Lions have lost three games in a row and five of their last six games. Statistically, the defenses are fairly equal. The offenses are fairly equal as well. Over the last six games the Lions have scored 24 points per game and the Colts scored 22 points per game. The Lions will be playing at home but that doesn’t seem to help them because they are 2-3 at home. I like the Colts to win because they are playing better at this point in time.

Vikings @ Packers I like the Packers. The Packers are 4-1 at home and the Vikings are 1-4 on the road. Statistically, these teams are fairly equal with the Packers looking slightly better on both offense and defense. However, the Packers lead in turnovers with +5 and the Vikings at -5. The Packers were crushed by the Giants on Sunday Night Football and I expect them to rebound with intensity. They were embarassed and they will be looking to show the world what they are really made of. Also, this is a division game and Green Bay QB Aaron Rogers is the kind of player who will be at his best for a big game like this one.

Texans @ Titans Texans will win. Texans are 10-1 and Titans are 4-7

Panthers @ Chiefs I pick the Panthers. The Panthers are 3-8 and the Chiefs are 1-10. Neither team is very good but the Panthers are coming off a win on Monday Night Football and I expect that to give them the moment needed to get a win in Kansas City.

Niners @ Rams The Niners should crush the Rams. The Niners have the best defense in the league allowing just 14 points per game. The Rams offense is ranked 28^th and earning just 19 points per game.

Patriots @ Dolphins The Patriots will win. The Patriots defense is ranked in the lowest 25% of the league but their offense is clearly the best in the game and averaging 37 points per game. In addition, the Patriots have an incredible +24 turnovers and the Dolphins have a dismal -14 turnovers.

Cardinals @ Jets I pick the Jets. This game is really hard to pick because both teams are horrible. The Cardinals are 1-4 on the road and can only score 16 points per game so I predict they will lose despite the return of RB Beanie Wells last week.

Buccaneers @ Broncos The Broncos will win. They are 4-1 at home, 8-3 on the season, and have won six in a row. In addition, the Broncos offense is scoring 288 passing yards per game, sixth in the league, and the Buccaneers defense is giving up 316 yards per game, 32^nd in the league. The Broncos, however, will need to control their turnovers to win. They have -3 turnovers and the Buccaneers have +11.

Bengals @ Chargers I like the Bengals. The Chargers are just 2-3 at home and the Bengals are 3-2 on the road. The Chargers lost three in a row and the Bengals have won three in a row. These defenses are evenly matched but the Bengals have a slight edge in offense because they are scoring 26 points per game versus the Chargers’ 22 points per game.

Steelers @ Ravens The Ravens will win. The Ravens are 5-0 at home and the Steelers are 2-4 on the road. The Ravens also have +12 turnovers versus the Steelers’ -10 turnovers. The Ravens are scoring 26 points per game and the Steelers are scoring 21 points per game. The Ravens and Steelers defenses are pretty equal giving up 20 and 19 points per game, respectively.

Eagles @ Cowboys Dallas will win despite how much they suck. They will win because the Eagles suck more. I want to state that Dallas will win because they are at home, but I can’t. This is because they suck so much that they are 2-3 at home. Meanwhile, the Eagles are a sucky 1-4 on the road. When I have a hard time choosing a winner I like to make my final decision on turnovers. I can’t do that in this game because Dallas has -11 turnovers, second suckiest in the NFC, and Philadelphia has -17, suckiest in the NFC. I give this game to the Cowboys because they are scoring a sucky 22 points per game versus the Eagles’ 17 sucky points per game. The Eagles should not play Michael Vick this week. He is still recovering and they cannot salvage this season so why risk serious concussion damage. At this point, Andy Reid will be fired at the end of the season regardless of how many games they win so playing Vick in hopes of a job-saving victory is a moot point. Did I mention that these teams suck?

Redskins @ Giants The Giants will win. They have now played against the RG3-era Redskins once, and won, and they will now defeat them again. The Redskins have the unfortunate luck of having to play the Giants twice and each time the games come one week after the Giants have played games in which they looked like the best team in the league. In week 6, the Giants dominated the Niners 26-3 and then beat the Redskins the next week 27-23. In week 12, which was last week, the Giants dominated the Packers 38-10. There is one more bigger advantage owned by the Giants.

The biggest advantage the Giants have is they are a learning organization. Here are a few examples:

1. In the 2007 season, the Giants lost to the then undefeated Patriots in week 17 with a score of 38-35. Four weeks later the Giants beat the then undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl, 17-14. In addition, four years later, the Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl, again.
2. In the 2011 season, the Giants lost to the Niners in week 10 with a score of 27-20. Ten weeks later the Giants beat the Niners, in San Francisco, in the playoffs 20-17 in overtime. In addition, in the Giants’ next match up with the Niners in week 6 of this 2012 season, the Giants crushed the Niners, in San Francisco, with a score or 26-3.
3. Again, In the 2011 season, the Giants lost to the then undefeated Packers in week 13 with a score of 38-35. Six weeks later, the Giants beat the Packers, in Green Bay, in the NFC Championship 37-20. In addition, in the Giants’ next match up with Packers in week 13 of this 2012 season, the Giants crushed the Packers with a score or 38-10.
4. The Giants lost to the Cowboys in week 1 of this 2012 season 24-17 at home. Eight weeks later the Giants defeated the Cowboys 29-24 in Texas Stadium.

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Are you seeing the pattern here? Once the Giants get a look at you, they can adapt to everything you do and crush your hopes and dreams. This is also why they have so many fourth quarter comebacks. They don’t always need four quarters to learn how to beat you. Three quarters is plenty.

The Giants already know how to beat the Redskins and I am convinced that because the Giants are very good at learning about their opponents, this week, they will show us how to crush the Redskins.

Part One:

12-2 last week and still in third place against the ESPN experts. This week there are some very challenging picks.

Texans @ Lions I’ll take the Texans. The Texans are an all-around solid team and are 9-1 this season. The Lions could be a really good team if they could be more consistent.

Redskins @ Cowboys I like the Redskins. The Cowboys defense will not be able to contain the Redskins offense and I don’t think the Cowboys offense can keep up with the Redskins.

Patriots @ Jets Patriots will win. The Patriots offense should crush the underachieving Jets.

Part Two:

Vikings @ Bears Bears win. The Bears are 4-1 at home and the Vikings are 1-3 on the road.  The Bears are +12 turnovers and the Vikings are -4 turnovers. In addition, Chicago is giving up just 17 points per game.

Raiders @ Bengals I like the Bengals. They are not a great team but they are 5-5 and have won two in a row.  Things are starting to click on both the offense and defense for the Bengals. In these last two wins, the Bengals beat the Giants by 18 points and the Chiefs by 22 points. The Raiders are 3-7, lost 3 in a row, and are 1-4 on the road.

Steelers @ Browns The Steelers should win this game. Their defense is giving up just 259 total yards per game and 19 points per game. QB Ben Roethlisberger is listed as doubtful to play which leaves them in the capable hands of 15-year-veteran Charlie Batch. The Browns offense is scoring just 19 points per game so I can’t see them moving the ball very well against the Steelers.

Bills @ Colts I like the Colts to win at home where they are 4-1. The Bills are 2-4 on the road. The Colts have a balanced offense that generates 393 total yards per game, fifth in the NFL. The Bills have a good rushing offense that generates 141 yards per game but the Bills defense is giving up 30 points per game. This  is a really bad matchup for the Bills defense. In the end, like many games, this game could be determined by turnovers. The Bills are -7 turnovers and the Colts are -13. This shows the turnovers are real big problem for both teams and the team that can execute well without any turnovers should win this game.

Broncos @ Chiefs Broncos win. Broncos are 7-3 and Chiefs are 1-9.

Seahawks @ Dolphins I like the Seahawks. Neither team has an impressive offense. The problem for the Dolphins is that Seattle’s defense is giving up just 297 total yards per game, third in the NFL, and 16 points per game, first in the NFL. Another advantage for the Seahawks is they are +1 turnovers and Dolphins are -9.

Falcons @ Buccaneers I like the Falcons. The Buccaneers are real hot right now and have won five of their last six and scored 34 points per game over that period. But that won’t be enough to win because Atlanta has given up just 20 points per game over the last 6 games. The Buccaneers will lose because they are giving up 313 passing yards per game, worst in NFL, and Atlanta is generating 293 passing yards per game, fourth in NFL.

Titans @ Jaguars I like the Jaguars. Chad Henne is now the starting QB for Jacksonville which means they are now cleared to begin scoring points. Last week they scored 37 points against the Houston defense which is ranked fifth with an average of 19.2 points allowed per game. The Titans’ are inconsistent

Ravens @ Chargers I like the Ravens. They are better on offense and defense than the Chargers. They are also +12 turnovers and the Chargers are -3 turnovers.

Niners @ Saints I’m going with the Saints. The Saints have won five of their last six games and are 3-0 at home over that same time period. During those last six games the Saints scored 30 points per game and gave up 24 points per game. The Niners are starting their rookie QB Colin Kaepernick. He is a very mobile QB but that may not help the Niners because the Saints kept the ultra-mobile QB Michael Vick and the Eagles to just 13 points in week 9. The Niners defense is allowing just 13.4 points per game but the powerful Saints offense can still put up enough points to win. The key for the Saints will be disrupting Kaepernick and slowing down the Niners run game which is gaining 165.3 yards per game.

Cardinals @ Rams Cardinals will win because they are giving up just 20 points per game compared to the Rams 24 points per game and the Cardinals will have RB Beanie Wells back. In 2011, Wells rushed for 1,047 yds and 10 TDs in 14 games.

Packers @ Giants I like the Giants. Statistically, these teams are very evenly matched with the Giants offense a touch better than the Green Bay offense and the Green Bay defense a touch better than the Giants Defense.  The Giants have a small advantage in turnovers with +11 versus the Packers’ +7. I think the Giants have the edge in the game because:

1. they are returning from a bye week
2. they are playing at home
3. last week, the Packers scored only 24 points against the Lions defense which is one of the worst ten defenses in the NFL
4. the Packers are 7-3 but 3-2 against good defenses
5. the Packers’ star LB Clay Matthews is out
6. the Giants will be without WR Domenik Hixon but will most likely see the return of LB Keith Rivers and S Kenny Phillips

Panthers @ Eagles Panthers will win. The Eagles 3-7 have lost 6 in a row and seem to have given up. Starting QB Michael Vick is out and will be replaced by rookie Nick Foles. Foles is not ready for the NFL. At 2-8, the Panthers don’t look like a team with much spark either. Panthers are -3 turnovers and the Eagles are -14 and the turnovers will probably be the difference in this game.

Part One

12-2 last week and still in third place against the ESPN experts. This week there are some very challenging picks.

Texans @ Lions I’ll take the Texans. The Texans are an all-around solid team and are 9-1 this season. The Lions could be a really good team if they could be more consistent.

Redskins @ Cowboys I like the Redskins. The Cowboys defense will not be able to contain the Redskins offense and I don’t think the Cowboys offense can keep up with the Redskins.

Patriots @ Jets Patriots will win. The Patriots offense should crush the underachieving Jets.

Part One:
I was 9-5 last week and it was a strange week for sure. I’m 96-50 for the season. Let’s get right into our first five picks of the week.

Dolphins @ Bills I like the Dolphins. The Dolphins D is fourth best against the run (94 yards/game) and the Bills have the sixth best running game (143 yards/game). The Dolphins are giving up just 21 points/game to the Bills’ 32 points per game.  Miami -6 turnovers and Buffalo is -10. Individually these stats don’t mean much but together I believe the add up to a win for Miami.

Cardinals @ Falcons Falcons will win. Atlanta is 8-1 overall and 4-0 at home. Cardinals are 4-5 overall and 1-3 on the road.

Browns @ Cowboys The Cowboys will win. Neither team is very exciting. Dallas has a better offense, a better defense, better special teams, and they are playing at home.

Packers @ Lions From what I can see the Packers lead the Lions in every statistic available. Packers will win and stay on track to make the playoffs.

Bengals @ Chiefs The Bengals will win. The Bengals are a very mediocre team but they show up ready to play every week. The Chiefs are 1-8 and 0-4 at home. Here is the biggest advantage for the Bengals: the Chiefs have -20 turnovers, worst in the league, and Cincinnati is -2 turnovers, NFC average league ranking.

Part Two:

Jets @ Rams Take the Rams. Both teams have a lot to work on. The Jets lost their last three games in a row and the Rams last game was a tie preceded by three losses. In their last three losses, the Rams looked much better than the Jets in their respective last three losses. The Rams last game was at tie against the Niners which tells me they are improving. I believe the Niners are overrated yet they are still a good team. The Jets have lost 10 of their last 13 road games.

Eagles @ Redskins I like the Redskins. Neither defense is very good. The real difference is the Redskins offense was better than the Eagles offense when Eagles starting QB Michael Vick was healthy. Vick suffered a concussion last week and second string QB Nick Foles will start in his place.

Buccaneers @ Panthers The Buccaneers will win. The Buccaneers have won three in a row and Carolina is 1-4 at home.

Jaguars @ Texans Take the Texans. Jaguars are 1-8 overall and 0-5 at home. Texans are 8-1 and 4-0 on the road.

Saints @ Raiders The Saints will win. The Saints are slowly improving their defense and their high-powered offense is running on all cylinders. They beat the #1 ranked Falcons last week and have now won four of their last five games. Oakland gave up a total of 97 points in their last two games.

Chargers @ Broncos I like the Broncos. They beat the Chargers in San Diego 35-24 in week 6 and are currently first in the AFC West with a 6-3 record. The Chargers have lost four of their last five games and are 4-5. Denver is 3-1 at home and San Diego is 2-3 on the road. Manning’s Broncos are playoff bound.

Colts @ Patriots I like the Patriots. Both defenses are giving up 22 points per game. The big difference is the Pats offense is scoring 33 points/game (first in NFL) and the Colts are scoring just 21 points/game.

Ravens @ Pittsburgh Take the Ravens. I don’t see the Steelers winning this game without Ben Roethlisberger at the helm. He is out with a shoulder injury and a dislocated rib. He is being replaced by veteran QB Byron Leftwich. Due to key injuries, the Ravens defense is not as strong as it has been in past years. However, their offense is scoring 28 points/game and ranked fourth in the NFL.

Bears @ Niners I like the Niners, if and only if Alex Smith starts. The Bears will be without starting QB Jay Cutler and will be replaced by veteran backup Jason Campbell. Niners starting QB Alex Smith is listed as questionable due to a concussion so he may not play. However, Smith did have a limited practice on Thursday so I suspect he will play. Also, Bears QB Jason Campbell has enough experience to move the ball against the Niners and if Niners’ backup QB, Colin Kaepernick, is asked to start then I believe the Bears defense will be too much for him to handle.

Part One:
I was 9-5 last week and it was a strange week for sure. I’m 96-50 for the season. Let’s get right into our first five picks of the week.

Dolphins @ Bills I like the Dolphins. The Dolphins D is fourth best against the run (94 yards/game) and the Bills have the sixth best running game (143 yards/game). The Dolphins are giving up just 21 points/game to the Bills’ 32 points per game.  Miami -6 turnovers and Buffalo is -10. Individually these stats don’t mean much but together I believe the add up to a win for Miami.

Cardinals @ Falcons Falcons will win. Atlanta is 8-1 overall and 4-0 at home. Cardinals are 4-5 overall and 1-3 on the road.

Browns @ Cowboys The Cowboys will win. Neither team is very exciting. Dallas has a better offense, a better defense, better special teams, and they are playing at home.

Packers @ Lions From what I can see the Packers lead the Lions in every statistic available. Packers will win and stay on track to make the playoffs.

Bengals @ Chiefs The Bengals will win. The Bengals are a very mediocre team but they show up ready to play every week. The Chiefs are 1-8 and 0-4 at home. Here is the biggest advantage for the Bengals: the Chiefs have -20 turnovers, worst in the league, and Cincinnati is -2 turnovers, NFC average league ranking.

UPDATE! I have to change my Lions @ Vikings pick. Vikings WR Percy Harvin is inactive for today’s game. He is the Vikings’ #1 wide receiver and without him their chances of beating the Lions are severely diminished. I now believe the Lions will win the game.

Part One

Bang! 11-3 last week! …and that’s how we do it at GmenHQ.com. That puts me at 88-45 for the year which makes me the sole owner of third place against the ESPN “Experts”. Wickersham is first at 94-38 and Mortensen is second at 92-40. Next season we may need to start our own panel of experts.

There are lots of fun games this week, let’s discuss three games right now.

Colts @ Jaguars The Colts will win. Colts are 5-3 and getting better every week. The Jaguars are 1-7 and I see no improvement. Jacksonville may get a few wins when star RB Maurice Jones-Drew returns but for now this team has no life. This sounds crazy but I might let MJD rest and recover for the entire season at this point. Why risk another injury when there is nothing to gain. Thinking like that is why I’m not a coach. Of all the things I’ve lost I miss my mind the most.

Giants @ Bengals Giants win. The Bengals are giving up 27.3 points/game and they are 1-3 at home. Giants are scoring 28.2 points/game and are 3-1 on the road. The Giants have been struggling a bit recently but those struggles have come against teams with much more power than the Bengals. Also, Giants are +14 takeaways and Bengals are -5, so look for the Giants to capitalize on the Bengals’ sloppy play.

Titans @ Dolphins Dolphins will win. The Dolphins D is giving up just 18.6 points/game compared to 34.2 point/game for the Titans D (worst in the league). The Dolphins are 2-1 at home and the Titans are 1-3 on the road. I expect to see a big game from Miami RB Reggie Bush.

Enjoy the game tonight. More picks tomorrow…

Part Two

Lions @ Vikings I’m taking the underdog Vikings. The Vikings are 4-1 at home and Detroit is 2-3 on the road. The Lions’ Stafford-Johnson connection may be heating up but the Vikings defense is ranked third in passing yards giving up just 188.6 yds per/game. Lions WR Calvin Johnson is listed as questionable today but it looks like he will be able to play. I believe his knee injury will slow him down enough for the Vikings to keep his numbers down.

Bills @ Patriots The Patriots will dominate this game. The Patriots are +13 turnovers and the Bills are -7 turnovers. The Bills are giving up 31 points/game, second worst in the NFL, and the Patriots are scoring 32.8 points/game, first in the NFL. The Patriots beat the Bills 52-28 in week 4.

Falcons @ Saints The Falcons will win. The Saints are improving their defense but it hasn’t improved enough to stop the 8-0 Falcons.

Chargers @ Buccaneers I like the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers have a lot of fight in them, the offense is scoring 28.3 points per game, and they’ve won three of the last four games. Tampa Bay has +9 turnovers and San Diego is even at 0 turnovers. The Chargers have good talent but I don’t think Norv Turner knows what to do with it.

Broncos @ Panthers Broncos win. Peyton Manning has his team performing at a high level. Cam Newton has lost faith in his team and his coaches.

Raiders @ Ravens Ravens win. The Ravens are 6-2 for the season and 4-0 at home. Raiders are 3-5 for the season and 1-3 on the road. Need I say more?

Jets @ Seahawks The Seahawks win.The Jets are missing key players to injuries and some of the healthy players are missing even when they are the field. Seattle is 5-4 for the season and 4-0 at home.

Cowboys @ Eagles Cowboys win. Both teams have many problems. The difference is the Cowboys seem to have a much stronger sense of self-preservation. They actually believe that they can turn the season around and put some wins together. The Cowboys D kept the high-powered Falcons offense to 19 points last week which tells me the Cowboys can control the Eagles offense and eek out a win.

Rams @ Niners The Niners are 6-2 and making a run at the playoffs. They are a well rounded team and should defeat the Rams easily. Rams are 0-3 on the road and Niners are 3-1 home. This game is the last chance for the Rams to get their offense moving and make a difference in the NFC West.

Texans @ Bears I am going with the Bears. Sunday night we will find out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. Both teams have great defenses and great offenses. Both teams are 7-1. Bears are undefeated at home and Texans are undefeated on the road. I give the edge to the Bears because they are playing at home and have +16 turnovers versus the Houston’s +8 turnovers.

Chiefs at Steelers Steelers win. This could be the most lopsided Monday Night Football game ever. The Steelers are 3-0 at home, 5-3 for the season, and have a three-game winning streak. The Chiefs are 1-7.

Bang! 11-3 last week! …and that’s how we do it at GmenHQ.com. That puts me at 88-45 for the year which makes me the sole owner of third place against the ESPN “Experts”. Wickersham is first at 94-38 and Mortensen is second at 92-40. Next season we may need to start our own panel of experts.

Part One
There are lots of fun games this week, let’s discuss three games right now.

Colts @ Jaguars The Colts will win. Colts are 5-3 and getting better every week. The Jaguars are 1-7 and I see no improvement. Jacksonville may get a few wins when star RB Maurice Jones-Drew returns but for now this team has no life. This sounds crazy but I might let MJD rest and recover for the entire season at this point. Why risk another injury when there is nothing to gain. Thinking like that is why I’m not a coach. Of all the things I’ve lost I miss my mind the most.

Giants @ Bengals Giants win. The Bengals are giving up 27.3 points/game and they are 1-3 at home. Giants are scoring 28.2 points/game and are 3-1 on the road. The Giants have been struggling a bit recently but those struggles have come against teams with much more power than the Bengals. Also, Giants are +14 takeaways and Bengals are -5, so look for the Giants to capitalize on the Bengals’ sloppy play.

Titans @ Dolphins Dolphins will win. The Dolphins D is giving up just 18.6 points/game compared to 34.2 point/game for the Titans D (worst in the league). The Dolphins are 2-1 at home and the Titans are 1-3 on the road. I expect to see a big game from Miami RB Reggie Bush.

Enjoy the game tonight. More picks tomorrow…

Part Two

Lions @ Vikings I’m taking the underdog Vikings. The Vikings are 4-1 at home and Detroit is 2-3 on the road. The Lions’ Stafford-Johnson connection may be heating up but the Vikings defense is ranked third in passing yards giving up just 188.6 yds per/game. Lions WR Calvin Johnson is listed as questionable today but it looks like he will be able to play. I believe his knee injury will slow him down enough for the Vikings to keep his numbers down.

Bills @ Patriots The Patriots will dominate this game. The Patriots are +13 turnovers and the Bills are -7 turnovers. The Bills are giving up 31 points/game, second worst in the NFL, and the Patriots are scoring 32.8 points/game, first in the NFL. The Patriots beat the Bills 52-28 in week 4.

Falcons @ Saints The Falcons will win. The Saints are improving their defense but it hasn’t improved enough to stop the 8-0 Falcons.

Chargers @ Buccaneers I like the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers have a lot of fight in them, the offense is scoring 28.3 points per game, and they’ve won three of the last four games. Tampa Bay has +9 turnovers and San Diego is even at 0 turnovers. The Chargers have good talent but I don’t think Norv Turner knows what to do with it.

Broncos @ Panthers Broncos win. Peyton Manning has his team performing at a high level. Cam Newton has lost faith in his team and his coaches.

Raiders @ Ravens Ravens win. The Ravens are 6-2 for the season and 4-0 at home. Raiders are 3-5 for the season and 1-3 on the road. Need I say more?

Jets @ Seahawks The Seahawks win.The Jets are missing key players to injuries and some of the healthy players are missing even when they are the field. Seattle is 5-4 for the season and 4-0 at home.

Cowboys @ Eagles Cowboys win. Both teams have many problems. The difference is the Cowboys seem to have a much stronger sense of self-preservation. They actually believe that they can turn the season around and put some wins together. The Cowboys D kept the high-powered Falcons offense to 19 points last week which tells me the Cowboys can control the Eagles offense and eek out a win.

Rams @ Niners The Niners are 6-2 and making a run at the playoffs. They are a well rounded team and should defeat the Rams easily. Rams are 0-3 on the road and Niners are 3-1 home. This game is the last chance for the Rams to get their offense moving and make a difference in the NFC West.

Texans @ Bears I am going with the Bears. Sunday night we will find out what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. Both teams have great defenses and great offenses. Both teams are 7-1. Bears are undefeated at home and Texans are undefeated on the road. I give the edge to the Bears because they are playing at home and have +16 turnovers versus the Houston’s +8 turnovers.

Chiefs at Steelers Steelers win. This could be the most lopsided Monday Night Football game ever. The Steelers are 3-0 at home, 5-3 for the season, and have a three-game winning streak. The Chiefs are 1-7.

Bang! 11-3 last week! …and that’s how we do it at GmenHQ.com. That puts me at 88-45 for the year which makes me the sole owner of third place against the ESPN “Experts”.  Wickersham is first at 94-38 and Mortensen is second at 92-40. Next season we may need to start our own panel of experts.

Part One
There are lots of fun games this week, let’s discuss three games right now.

Colts @ Jaguars The Colts will win. Colts are 5-3 and getting better every week. The Jaguars are 1-7 and I see no improvement. Jacksonville may get a few wins when star RB Maurice Jones-Drew returns but for now this team has no life. This sounds crazy but I might let MJD rest and recover for the entire season at this point. Why risk another injury when there is nothing to gain. Thinking like that is why I’m not a coach. Of all the things I’ve lost I miss my mind the most.

Giants @ Bengals Giants win. The Bengals are giving up 27.3 points/game and they are 1-3 at home. Giants are scoring 28.2 points/game and are 3-1 on the road. The Giants have been struggling a bit recently but those struggles have come against teams with much more power than the Bengals. Also, Giants are +14 takeaways and Bengals are -5, so look for the Giants to capitalize the Bengals’ sloppy play.

Titans @ Dolphins Dolphins will win. The Dolphins D is giving up just 18.6 points/game compared to 34.2 point/game for the Titans D (worst in the league). The Dolphins are 2-1 at home and the Titans are 1-3 on the road. I expect to see a big game from Miami RB Reggie Bush.

Enjoy the game tonight. More picks tomorrow…

Part One: 9-5 last week which placed me tied for fourth for the week. I am now 76-42 (.644) overall which puts me in third place behind Wickersham, 85-35, and Mortensen, 82-36. I pretty happy with that and I still think I can get to first place. Just one bad week for Wickersham and Mortensen and the three of us could be tied or first.

There are a lot of tough picks this week and I need more information about injuries and weather before I can make good choices. So for now I will only pick tonight’s game. Tomorrow I will post the remaining picks.

Chiefs at Chargers I like the Chargers here. The Chargers are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Browns. I still don’t understand how that happened but I fully believe the Chargers will bounce back strong. I’m not sure that Norv Turner knows what to do with all that talent but the players will be ready to save some face and they will execute well. The Chiefs a have a major QB problem and it won’t be resolved by 8:20 PM ET tonight.

Part Two: I’m off to a 1-0 start. Not much to brag about, the Chargers were a pretty easy pick. However, a win is a win and I’ll take a win anyway I can get it. Here are the rest of the picks.

Broncos @ Bengals I like the Broncos. Peyton Manning has never lost to the Bengals and the Broncos are really heating up. Bengals have lost three in a row.

Ravens @ Browns  The Ravens win. The Browns defense did a nice job of shutting down the Chargers last week but I don’t think they can do it again this week. Statistically the Chargers offense and the Baltimore offense are very similar so you could believe that the Browns can stop the Ravens. The difference is Ravens Coach John Harbaugh is a more skilled coach than Chargers Coach Norv Turner. Harbaugh knows that he has a dynamic team and he’ll use that to create lots of holes in the Browns defense. You should also know that under Harbaugh’s coaching the Ravens are 4-0 after a bye week.

Cardinals @ Packers The Packers are always tough to beat at home but now the Packers have won three games in a row and seem to have found that magic from the last two years. The Cardinals have no run game and have lost four in a row after starting 4-0. The Cardinals are in a serious tailspin.

Bears @ Titans I like the Bears. Tennessee is 3-5 but they have won 2 of their last 3 and have definitely improved. I don’t think they’ve improved enough to beat a team that is holding opponents to 14.2 points per game, second in the league.

Dolphins @ Colts Miami wins. Both teams are 4-3 and I like what I see in Miami. They have a balanced offense with 327.9 yards passing per game and 115.9 yards rushing per game. Also, the defense is holding teams to 18 points per game, fifth in the league. The Colts are 3-1 at home but the Dolphins have won three in a row and seem to have found a nice rhythm.

Panthers @ Redskins Redskins will win but this could go the other way because when the Redskins win they win on offense alone. Their defense is terrible. Redskins have a big advantage in turnovers, they are +7 and the Panthers are -5. The Panthers offense is playing terrible but if they happen to get their act together and stop the turnovers, this game could be a real battle.

Lions @ Jaguars The Lions started out 0-4 but have recently beaten the Eagles and the Seahakks. I see new life in the Lions and I see no life in the Jaguars.

Bills @ Texans This will be all Texans, all day long. Texans are 6-1 and returning from a bye week. The Texans are scoring 30.9 points per game (2nd in NFL) and the Bills are giving up 32.4 points per game (32nd in the league).

Buccaneers @ Raiders I like Tampa Bay to win. Both teams are 3-4. Oakland is giving up 26.7 points per game and the Buccaneers scored 38, 28, and 36 points in their last three games.  The Raiders just won two games in a row so you would think that moment is on their side except that they defeated two terrible defenses and now they are facing an average defense that is showing improvements. Buccaneers have a slight edge in turnovers at +7 versus the Raiders’ +1.

Vikings @ Seahawks I like the Seahawks to win. They are 3-0 at home.  The Seattle defense is ranked 3rd giving up just 16.8 points per game and a very stingy 14 points per game at home. The Vikings offense is scoring a respectable 23 points per game but they won’t be able to overcome the Seahawks defense in Seattle.

Steelers @ GiantsThe Giants will win because of four reasons:

1. Giants are 3-1 at home and Steelers are 1-3 on the road.
2. Giants have +13 takeaways and Steelers are just +1
3. Giants have won four in a row but the last win was not pretty. I believe this shook up the Giants and in response they will show up this Sunday executing as they did in their wins in weeks 5,6, and 7. In those three games, they looked like defending champions.
4. The Giants are outscoring the Steelers 29.3 points per game to 23.9 points per game.

Cowboys @ Falcons Falcons will defeat the Cowboys. Not only are the Falcons undefeated at home they are undefeated this entire season. It is the Falcons’ league and everyone else is playing flag football. The perennially overrated Cowboys are 3-4. The Cowboys have -11 takeaways and the Falcons have +10 takeaways.

Eagles @ Saints The Saints will score at least 35 points against the defensive-coordinator-less Eagles defense. The Saints don’t have much of  a defense either but their offense is strong enough to completely dominate the Eagles defense. In addition, the Eagles have -9 takeaways and the Saints have 0 takeaways.

9-5 last week which placed me tied for fourth for the week. I am now 76-42 (.644) overall which puts me in third place behind Wickersham, 85-35, and Mortensen, 82-36. I pretty happy with that and I still think I can get to first place. Just one bad week for Wickersham and Mortensen and the three of us could be tied or first.

There are a lot of tough picks this week and I need more information about injuries and weather before I can make good choices. So for now I will only pick tonight’s game. Tomorrow I will post the remaining picks.

Chiefs at Chargers I like the Chargers here. The Chargers are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Browns. I still don’t understand how that happened but I fully believe the Chargers will bounce back strong. I’m not sure that Norv Turner knows what to do with all that talent but the players will be ready to save some face and they will execute well. The Chiefs a have a major QB problem and it won’t be resolved by 8:20 PM ET tonight.

11-2 in week 7!! I’m back on top of my game and I’m now 67-37 (.644)  for the season. No time to rest on my laurels this week. Let’s get right into week 8.

Buccaneers @ Vikings I like the Vikes. Vikings (5-2) are playing well and RB Adrian Peterson is running very well. QB Christian  Ponder needs to get his INTs under control ASAP, he had six last week. The Buccaneers (2-4) are inconsistent.

Panthers @ Bears The Panthers are in a lot of trouble and need some serious soul searching. The Bears are 5-1 and kicking butt. I like the Bears at home.

Chargers @ Browns The Chargers are just 3-3 but they’ve had a week off to get refocused. They have a lot of good talent so I expect to see them play well this week. Browns are 1-6.  I like the Chargers.

Seahawks @ Lions I’m taking the Seahawks. They are only 1-3 on the road but the Lions are no match for the Seahawks defense. In points per game the Seahawks defense is ranked third (15.1 points/games) behind Chicago (13 points per game) and San Francisco (14.3 points per game). The Lions scored just 7 points against Chicago last week and 19 against San Francisco in week 2. In addition, the Lions scored only 13 points in week four against the sixth ranked Minnesota defense. One more thing, the Lions will have just 5 days rest compared to Seahawks’ 8 days.

Jaguars at Packers As I said last week, the Packers are back. The Jaguars have been absent all season and now starting RB Maurice Jones-Drew is out with a foot injury. Packers win at Lambeau Field.

Colts @ Titans  Titans win at home.  First, The Titans are 2-1 at home and the Colts are 0-2 on the road. Second, Titans starting RB Chris Johnson has finally woken up and he’ll be facing a defense that is 26th against the run giving up 141.7 yards per game. Now, the Titans defense is giving up the most points per game in the league, 34, and they have several defensive injuries to overcome. I don’t think that will matter in the end because they should outscore the Colts and the defense will find a way to excel in front of the home crowd.

Patriots @ Rams Patriots win. I am calling this one by the numbers. The Rams are giving up 20 points per game which ranks 10th in the league and the Patriots are ranked 1st in scoring with 31 points per game. The Patriots are giving up 23.3 points per game which ranks 19th in the league and the Rams are ranked 26th in scoring with 18.6 points per game.

Dolphins @ Jets I like the Dolphins. The Jets are 3-1 after overtime losses but I like the Dolphins to beat the Jets at home. The Dolphins are coming off an extra week of rest and I like how their defense matches up to the Jets. The Dolphins’ passing defense is average to below average (20th) and the Jets’ passing offense is way below average (30th). The Dolphins’ rushing defense is great (4th) and the Jets rushing offense is average (10th).

Falcons @ Eagles The Eagles are 13-0 when returning from a bye week and that is pretty amazing. However, the streak ends here. The teams are evenly matched on defense but the Falcons score 28.5 points per game and the Eagles just 17.2 per game. It doesn’t matter that the entire Eagles organization has been put on notice. They do not function together well and they should  have never signed Michael Vick. I like the Falcons to go 7-0.

Redskins @ Steelers Redskins will win. They’re getting better every week and they nearly beat the Giants last week. The Redskins defense struggles but so does the Steelers offense. The Redskins 5th ranked offense will lead the way to a win over the 12th ranked Pittsburgh defense.

Raiders @ Chiefs I don’t know how to pick this game. They both stink…very badly. Chiefs can’t win at home and the Raiders can’t win on the road. Chiefs QB Matt Cassel returns from an injury this week and they’re returning from a bye week. I’ll take the Chiefs.

Gaints @ Cowboys Giants win! Giants score 29.3 points per game to the Cowboys 18.8 points per game. The defenses are fairly evenly matched on paper with the Giants giving up 19.6 per game and the Cowboys giving up 22.2 per game. The problem is that Eli manning loves playing in Dallas and always puts up big numbers there. Dallas will be without Demarco Murray and Felix Jones is questionable.

Broncos @ Saints Both teams can put up big numbers but Denver actually has a defense. Take Denver.

Niners @ Cardinals Excellent defenses on both sides of the field in this game. The Cardinals offense is in a tailspin and they’ve lost their run game. Take the Niners.

11-3 last week and 50-27 overall. For week five, Seth Wickersham had the best record or 12-2 and I tied for second with Chris Carter at 11-3. I’m real close to showing the experts who is boss and overall I’m now in sole posession of third place behind first place Chris Mortensen (55-22) and second place Seth Wickersham (53-24). Indy over Green Bay was the big surprise. I, like most people, was certain Green Bay would win. There were just four games that seemed to be difficult picks and this week there are many games that will be a challenge to pick. Let’s get take a look at week 5.

 I must take the Steelers. The Steelers offense is average and the Tennessee offense is just below average so the Steelers don’t have much of an edge there except that the Titans have allowed a league high 36.2 points per game while the Steelers defense has allowed 22.3 points per game.

Raiders @ Falcons The Raiders are 1-3 and coming off a bye week. The extra rest and preparation won’t make a difference when facing the 5-0 Atlanta Falcons. The Raiders defense has given up 31.3 points per game, third worst in the league, and will be facing the ultra-strong Falcons offense that is scoring 29.6 points per game. You should also know the Falcons are giving up just 18.6 points per game.

Bengals @ Browns The Bengals are 3-2 and the Browns are 0-5. When reviewing the statistics for these teams you’ll find the Bengals are average and the Browns are just below average. The difference in these teams is the Bengals are playing to win and Browns cannot put a win together. An interesting stat: Bengals QB Andy Dalton is 7-4 on the road and 5-5 at home. I like the Bengals.

Dolphins @ Seahawks I’m taking the Dolphins. Miami and Seattle have the first and third ranked defenses against the run in the league, respectively. Statistically, both run offenses are pretty evenly matched as well. The Dolphins have the edge in passing offenses with 237.2 points per game versus the Seahawks’ 140.0 points per game. Miami QB Tannehill looks better every game while the Seahawks’ passing game seems stuck in preseason mode.

Colts @ Jets I like the Colts. The Colts are coming off a big win against the Packers and their other win is against the Vikings who are currently 4-1. The Colts have alot of heart and it will be interesting to see if they can become consistent. The Jets are a mess. They’ve scored just one touchdown in the last two home games and without WR Santonio Holmes, who is out for the season, I don’t see the offense improving enough to make a big difference. The Jets defense relied heavily on CB Derrell Revis who is now also out for season. I don’t see an upside for the Jets anywhere in the near future.

Lions @ Eagles This is a tough pick and I’m taking the Lions. They’ve had an extra week of rest and Calvin Johnson should have a mega-game. The Eagles have given up 189 yards per game to recievers over the past three games and the Lions will take advantage of this weakness. I wrote last week about the Eagles’ inconsistency and it showed up again in their game against Pittsburgh. I don’t the think the Eagles can defeat a team that has spent an extra week fine-tuning their game and resting.

Cheifs @ Buccaneers On paper the Buccaneers are not much better than the Chiefs. The Chiefs just lost their starting QB Matt Cassell and have suffered two losses in a row. The Buccaneers have had an extra week to prepare and are playing at home. The Buccaneers have the talent to be winning team in the NFL and I think a week of fine-tuning their skills will make the difference for them. I like the Buccaneers.

Ravens @ Cowboys I’ll take the Ravens. The Ravens are scoring 26.0 points per game versus the Cowboys’ 16.3 points per game. On defense, the Ravens are giving up 17.8 points per game versus the Cowboys 22.00 points per game. The Cowboys have had an extra week to rest and prepare but the Ravens have won three in a row so they are carrying a lot of momentum into this game. I must say that I am a little concerned that the Ravens scored just nine points against the Chiefs last week.

Bills @ Cardinals I like the Cardinals. Not much to talk about here. The Cardinals are 4-1 and don’t give up. The Bills have been outscored in the fourth quarter 52-7 in the last two games.

Patriots @ Seahawks I conditionally pick the Patriots. Patriots QB Tom Brady is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. If he doesn’t play I have to re-think this. For now, I like the Patriots. TE Aaron Hernandez is expected to return giving Brady more options and shorter passes to a tight end may be just what Brady will throw best with a shoulder injury. The Patriots have discovered their running game which we haven’t see in a long time so they are more dynamic now and can work through Brady’s shoulder problems. The Patriots offense is the number one offense in the league. The Seahawks have the best defense in the leauge but their passing offense needs help. The Seahawks surprised some teams early this season but I think there is enough film available now that the Patriots will decipher how to defeat the Seahawks.

Giants @ 49ers This is a real big game. Both teams are looking to make a statement and I have some news for you. The San Francisco 49ers are the most overrated team in the NFL, this week. I say “this week” because the Cowboys are always the most overrated team of the season. The 49ers are currently 4-1 and that means nothing. Let’s look at their opponents. The 49ers have defeated the Packers (2-3), Lions (1-3), Jets (2-3), and Bills (2-3). None of those teams currently have a winning record, the Jets and Bills have pathetic defenses and the once mighty Packers just lost to a rookie quarterback. The 49ers have only faced one winning team, the Vikings (4-1), currently with a winning record and they lost that game 24-13. I’m not impressed. Now, you could argue the same point against the 3-2 Giants. They’ve won three games against teams that currently have losing records and lost two games, one to a team currently with a wining record, Eagles (3-2), and one to a 2-2 team, Cowboys. One of the teams they defeated was the Browns so there is nothing to brag about threre. The difference is that San Francisco is ranked third in the ESPN Power Rankings and currently 13 of 14 ESPN experts have picked the 49ers to win. The Giants are ranked seventh. I don’t have a problem with the Giants’ ranking because I think they still have to prove themselves. The 49ers have much to prove as well and should not be ranked third.

Let’s look at why the Giants will beat the 49ers. The Giants have 2148 total offensive yards and the 49ers have 2008 total offensive yards. There doesn’t look to be a big difference here until you consider that 1002 yards of the 2008 total offensive yards gained by the 49ers came in blowout wins against the Jets and the Bills. This means that just about half of their yards were gained from two very lopsided games and they are not nearly as good on offense as the numbers tell us. Almost the same argument can made against the San Francisco defense. They’ve given up just 68 points but the Bills and Jets only scored 3 points combined against the 49ers. I give the 49ers credit for having an above average defense but the Bills and Jets offenses are playing far below average in there last three games, especially against the 49ers. I love looking at the numbers and a phrase that is generally attributed to Mark Twain comes to mind, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

On the other side of the field, the Giants are finding strength in both the passing game and the running game. Eli Manning looks very confident again and he has WR Nicks (questionable but hints that he will play), WR Cruz, WR Hixon, and WR Randle to throw to. TE Bennett and WR Barden are listed as questionable. In the running game, RB Ahmad Bradshaw is running like he has something to prove, RB David Wilson has more experience now and I expect a mini breakout from him soon. RB Andre Brown has made the Giants running game more dynamic but he is listed as questionable this week. The defense is ready for a breakout game. They’ve been playing well but we haven’t seen a dominating pass rush yet. The possible absence of both LB Michael Boley (questionable) and LB Chase Blackburn (questionable) could mean that the Giants will have to wait for a defensive breakout, but, with the exception of Safety Kenny Phillips (questionable), they now have a healthy squad of defensive backs. I like the Giants to win a very close and exciting game.

Vikings @ Redskins I really want to pick the Redskins because I’ve witnessed the pain and suffering that Redskins fans have been enduring for many years and I like the Robert Griffin III story. However, I have to pick the Vikings. The Viking are 4-1 and QB Christian Ponder, RB Adrian Peterson, and WR Percy Harvin all participated in a complete practice on Friday. The Redksins are 2-3 and not as healthy as the Vikings. QB Robert Griffin III practiced full on Friday but is still listed as questionable due to a mild concussion last week and WR Pierre Garcon has suffered a set back to his foot injury is also listed as questionable. To beat the Vikings the Redskins would need both Griffin and Garcon at 100%.

Texans @ Packers The team at Lambaeu Field has gone cold. As my good friend says, “There is something very wrong with that team.” The Packers have the talent and leadership to do great things but they can put it all together. Are they still recovering from a tough loss in the playoffs to the Giants last season and a tough loss due to a horrible call by the refs in Seattle? Whatever the problem is I promise you it won’t help them beat the Texans this week. I like to rank teams by points per game and Houston is ranked third in offense and fourth in defense. I see the Texans winning their sixth game in a row.

Broncos @ Chargers  This is the hardest game to pick this week. I’m taking the Chargers. The two defenses are evenly matched but the Broncos offense is statistically better. The Broncos are scoring 27 points per game and 383.4 yards compared to the Chargers’ 24.8 points per game and 334.8 yards. What I like about the Chargers is how they played in their loss to the Saints last week . They looked like a team that is much more focused than what I’ve seen from the Broncos. The Chargers will also be looking to take a two-game lead in the AFC West with this win at home.  I also see the Chargers winning the turnover game as well. Chargers are +2 and the Broncos -6 in Give/Take. The Broncos may be missing starting WR Demaryius Thomas (questionable) and they will need him to win this AFC West divisional game.