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NFL Expert Picks for Week Four

Jeff Ellis — Fri, 28 Sep 2012 00:46:59 +0000

8-8 in week 3. What a crazy week of football! I lost several games in overtime and of course lost that atrocious Packers vs. Seahawks game. Thank the football gods that is over with. Welcome back, professional zebras! Oh how we’ve missed you.

Now that the NFL ship has been righted, I’m even more determined to show these so called experts a thing or two about being an expert. Which in fact, I AM doing. I’m 27-21 for the season which puts me ahead of 10 of the experts in the graphic above and tied with Mike Golic for fourth place, which is a great honor. Golic’s morning radio show is the best sports show on the air. Please note that none of the “experts” ahead of me are NFL veterans. Let’s get into week four.

Browns @ Ravens Ravens will take this one down. Ravens are 2-1 and ranked 2nd in offensive points scored with 98 points. Browns are 0-3 and ranked 26th in offensive points scored with 57. Neither defense is doing very well but the Ravens’ stronger offense and veteran players will make the difference in this game. Oh yes, and the Ravens are on a 12-game home winning streak…so they’ve got that going for them too.

Panthers @ Falcons Falcons are 3-0, tied with the Giants for third most offensive points scored with 94, and have weapons out the wazoo. Let’s not forget that the Falcons D has given up just 48 points, fourth in the league. Carolina is tied for 29th in offensive points scored with 52 and don’t have the chemistry they had last year. The good news for Carolina is they’ve had three extra days to rest and prepare. Regardless, I’ll take the Falcons all day long, and twice on a NFL Sunday.

Patriots @ Buffalo Tom Brady loves to beat up on the Bills. Brady has scored 2.3 tds per game over 20 games against the Bills. The Bills D is a little below average and Brady passed for 335 yards last week. It looks like the Patriots are finally putting an offense together, just in time to route the Bills. I predict the Patriots will dominate the Bills.

Vikings @ Lions This is a tough one to pick. I like the Vikes, they showed us some real guts last week. The Vikes D has given up just 59 points versus the Detroit D’s 94. I realize this is a division game in Detroit but I still have to go with the Vikes.

Chargers @ Chiefs Chargers win. The Chiefs’ only win was against the Saints who have no defense at all. I could put a better defense together with eleven guys from my local bar and two bottles of Jack Daniels. San Diego’s defense is pretty stingy.

Seahawks @ Rams The refs won’t be playing for Seattle anymore but I think they’ll win anyway. The Seattle defense is the stingiest in the league giving up just 39 points. The Rams offensive line is troublesome.

Niners @ Jets Both teams are 2-1. Look for the Niners to rebound. I can’t tell if the Jets are good or not but they certainly won’t be as good without Revis.

Titans @ Texans Texans are super tough on both sides of the ball. Titans are…well…in need of defensive help. They’ve given up 133 points, the most in the league.

Raiders @ Broncos I like Peyton Manning leading his team to 2-2 at home. Manning’s back is against the wall and you don’t want to do that to a Manning.

Dolphins @ Cardinals Cardinals are far too strong to lose at home to the Dolphins. In addition, Miami RB Reggie Bush will not be at 100% and may not play.

Bengals @ Jaguars The Bengals are starting to click and the Jaguars are inconsistent. Bengals win.

Saints @ Packers The Packers will be determined to never again let the outcome of a game come down to the final play. I see them taking out a lot of frustration on the Saints. Packers will crush the Saints.

Redskins @ Buccaneers Both teams have upsides and downsides. The Redskins have scored a league high 99 points, so I’m taking the Redskins.

Giants @ Eagles NFC East games are always great games and this will be one to remember. The Giants, 94 offensive points, have scored exactly twice as many points as the Eagles, 47 offensive points. The Giants have 1278 total offensive yards and the Eagles have 1249 offensive yards, nearly the same. What these numbers tell me is that the Giants have many more weapons to turn to when they need a touchdown and that will be the difference in this game. I love me some Giants.

Bears @ Cowboys The Cowboys are statistically a little bit better on both sides of the ball. This is not much of an edge but when you calculate in the 12th man at Texas Stadium this equals trouble for the Bears.

NFL Expert Picks for Week 3

Jeff Ellis — Fri, 21 Sep 2012 00:14:59 +0000

I was 9-7 last week and that is just unacceptable. Let’s not dwell on the past this week and let’s move forward into week three.

Giants @ Panthers I like the Giants and I’m not afraid to say it. The Giants have the following key players out for this week: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, C David Diel, WR Hakeem Nicks, WR Domenik Hixon, and DE Adewale Ojomo. However, I believe that the Giants can make up for these losses because RB Andre Brown looked very good last week, WR Victor Cruz is back to good form, TE Martellus Bennett has become an important part of the passing game, and I predict that WR Ramses Barden will use this opportunity to breakout. Barden has been with the Giants for four years now and they’re looking for him to step up and show us why they’ve kept him on the team. Also, CB Prince Amukamara will play his first game of the season after receiving an ankle injury in preseason practice. The Giants have given up 259 yds passing and 5 tds in two games. The Panthers have 268 yds passing and 2 tds in two games. Look for Amukamara to help keep the Panthers below or near 200 yds passing and no more than 1 passing touchdown. QB Cam Newton has 75 yds rushing and is the Panthers’ leading rusher. It is never a good sign when your QB is your leading rusher. Also, the Giants always seem to win when their backs are against the wall.

Rams @ Bears This is my underdog pick of the week. I’m going with the Rams. I like the Rams because they’re coming off a win in which it looks like things are starting to click for them. Also, the Bears are having some behavior issues with QB Cutler. There is news that the team is not giving any significance to the Cutler’s tantrum and they are behind him 100%. I am not sure that is completely true.

Buffalo @ Cleveland Bills win on the road. CJ Spiller is running very well and they’re coming off a win. The Browns defense is ranked 29th in total defensive yards giving up 831 and the Buffalo offense is ranked 7th with 769 total yards.

Buccaneers @ Cowboys The Cowboys will recover from their loss in Seattle and beat the Buccaneers in Texas Stadium. It is hard to tell which Cowboys team will show up but I’m betting they’ll come to their first home game ready to play hard. The Buccaneers had a nice second quarter last week scoring 3 tds against the Giants’ who had a depleted and confused secondary. The Giants then scored 25 pts in the fourth quarter to take the win. Romo is no Eli but the Buccaneers gave up 510 yds passing to the Giants and I’m certain Romo will be looking to duplicate Eli’s performance.

Lions @ Titans Titans can’t get their act together. The Lions will dominate.

Jaguars @ Colts The Colts will win. The Colts are need much improvement in their offense but the Jaguars have the lowest total offensive yards, 472, in the league and their defense is ranked 23rd in total defensive yards, 800, over two games.

Jets @ Dolphins The Jets were unimpressive last week. The Dolphins scored 14 points in each of their last two quarters. I like them to carry this moment into their next game and grab another win at home.

Niners @ Vikings The Niners are playing better than any other team in the NFL.

Chiefs @ Saints I didn’t think either of these teams would have as much trouble as they are both having. Both teams can put up points and both teams have trouble stopping opponents from putting up points. The Saints have given up 922 total defensive yards to the Cheifs’ 755 yds. I like the Saints to put a defense together finally and pick up a win at home.

Bengals @ Redskins Tough pick here. I like RGIII to lead his team to a win in their home opener and RGIII’s first NFL home game.

Eagles @ Arizona These are two 2-0 teams that I did not expect to be 2-0. I am not sure that the Eagles are consistent yet and they’re not winning with dominance. I like Arizona to win this game at home.

Falcons @ Chargers They are both good teams but the Falcons are much stronger. The Falcons will continue their winning ways.

Texans @ Broncos Texans are possibly the second best team in the league and they are too strong for the Broncos. The Broncos are good and will be very good by the end of the season. The won’t win this week.

Steelers @ Raiders The Raiders have too many problems to list. The Steelers win.

Ravens @ Patriots The Patriots have no spark and now TE Hernandez is out. This week they re-signed WR Deion Branch and signed TE Kellen Winslow off waivers. This smells like panic to me. The Ravens will be looking for redemption after a tough loss to the Eagles last week. I like the Ravens.

Packers @ Seattle The Pack is Back. They dominated the Bears so badly last week that Bears QB Jay Cutler threw a tantrum. Packers win and go to 2-1.

ESPN Expert Picks for Week Two Updated

Jeff Ellis — Thu, 13 Sep 2012 01:29:19 +0000

Last week I was a very respectable 10-6 and I was happy to see my underdog pick, the Cardinals, come through for me. However, The Giants’ loss and the Saints’ loss really surprised me. The Giants just didn’t have their act together and there isn’t much else to say about that. Would you ever believe that a rookie QB would beat the Saints in his first NFL game? As a Giants fan I have to tell you that I am really worried about Washington now. They swept the Giants last year and now they have a real QB threat. Gulp.

Let’s take a look at my picks for this week:

Bears @ Packers Packers are coming off two losses in a row at home. The first loss was against the Giants in the NFC Championship last season and the second was against the Niners last week. The Bears offense looked good against the Colts last week and their defense, of course, is very strong. I believe the Packer’s loss last week was a “Come to Jesus” moment for them and they will return this week like hell fire and brimstone. Packers will win at home.

Cheifs @ Bills Tough pick here. Both teams have porous defenses and offenses that are not firing on all cylinders. I think the home fans will get the Bills’ engine revved up.

Browns @ Bengals I’ll take the Bengals at home. The Brown’s rookies, Weeden and Richardson, showed last week they have much to improve upon. After playing the super tough Ravens defense last week, the Browns defense will seem very weak to the Bengals and they’ll put up respectable numbers this week.

Colts @ Vikings I like Vikes. Adrian Peterson is back and they’re at home. Andrew Luck may become an excellent NFL QB but it won’t happen this week. The Colts defense gave up 41 points last week to Chicago. I believe Chicago is a good team and I don’t believe the Colts should have gained so many points. Look for Ponder, Peterson, and Harvin to have a good week.

Raiders @ Miami The Raiders will regroup this week and come out Sunday as a much more disciplined team.

Cardinals @ Patriots It is very difficult to beat the Patriots at home and the Cardinals are not the team to do it.

Buccaneers @ Giants I like the defending Super Bowl champs to return to good form and win at home.

Ravens @ Eagles The Ravens destroyed the Bengals last week and this momentum will carry through Philadelphia. I’ve been telling people Flacco is a good QB since 2010. It looks like he’s stepping up his game this year. Also, the Ravens defense is as strong as ever and the Eagles are still not a cohesive unit on offense. The Eagles have far too many weapons to only score 17 points against the Browns last week.

Saints @ Panthers The Saints gave up 40 points against a rookie QB last week but the Panthers only scored 10 against the Buccaneers. The Saints scored 32 points last week which tells me that their offense is just fine for now without Sean Payton and is probably only going to improve from here on out. The Saints will win.

Texans @ Jaguars The Texans are very powerful. They scored 24 points in the second quarter against the Dolphins last week. They just might be able to score-at-will against the Jaguars too. Texans will win.

Redskins @ Rams Redskins scored 40 points against the Saints last week in New Orleans. The Redskins defense gave up 32 points so it wasn’t a blow out but it was very impressive. This momentum will carry them through their match-up with the Rams.

Cowboys @ Seahawks In their win against the Giants last week, the Cowboys showed that they have a lot of weapons. I am not convinced that their defense is strong enough to be a playoff contender. The Giants WR Victor Cruz dropped 3 passes that he should have caught and got mugged in the endzone. The scab refs missed the call. The game would have been very different without those events. The Cowboys committed 13 penalties and will need to be more disciplined to compete against the elite NFL teams. The Seahawks are not an elite NFL team and the Cowboys will beat them soundly with a variety of weapons.

Jets @ Steelers The Jets had a dominating win last week in Buffalo. I think the Steelers defense will have their hands full Sunday afternoon and I think they will hold back the Jets in front of the home fans in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger threw for a respectable 245 yds and 2 tds last week. There were several missed passing opportunities and I expect Big Ben to be more in sync with his receivers this week. I like the Steelers.

Titans @ Chargers The Chargers looked good against the Raiders and I expect them to get better each week. The Titans took a beating against the Patriots last week and I don’t believe they can muster the morale needed to beat the Chargers at home.

Lions @ Niners The Niners had a great game against the Packers last week. Their confidence will be sky-high going into this Sunday night game under the lights at home. The Lions will put up a real good fight but they won’t overcome the Niners.

Broncos @ Falcons This is going to be a great game and I will miss it because my girlfriend is dragging me to a stupid Bon Iver concert. The Broncos had a nice home win against the Steelers last week but the Falcons offense is much more powerful than the Steelers. This will be a shootout and the Falcons will win at home.