As the 2021 NFL Draft approaches, the NY Giants need to assess what player could have an immediate impact on their putrid offense.
The NY Giants need to cultivate a more sustainable offense if they are to be considered playoff contenders in 2021. Whether by air or by land, they need an offense that can effectively pick up first downs, as well as a one that can convert on third down.
A few statistics to emphasize this point.
First, the Giants offense had the second fewest first downs in the NFL in 2020 (297), ahead of only the NY Jets (269). Both NY football squads were the only two teams in the league that failed to reach 300 first downs.
Second, the Giants made the third fewest third down conversions in the NFL in 2020 (72), ahead of only the Chicago Bears (71) and the Jets (70). To underscore their ineptitude on third down, here’s one more stat: The Giants only had one successful third down conversion in the final two weeks of the season.
Regardless of how the dynamics of NFL offenses change over time, the ability to move the chains will remain synonymous with sustainability.
In turn, moving the chains leads more yards, which leads to points. The Giants offense, who were 31st in both categories, could do with some improvement.
It all starts by getting first downs.
Stagnant Chains
The Giants’ offense averaged just 19 first downs per game. Compare that to the Buffalo Bills, who led the league with 397 total first downs — a full 100 more than the Giants had. The Bills averaged 25 first downs per game, which is a big factor to their higher averages than the Giants in both points and yards per game.
The Giants averaged 17 points per game, while the Bills averaged 31. And while the Giants managed to average an even 300 yards per game, the Bills averaged 396.
It’s not a far stretch to say that the more first downs you have, the more points you score and yards you gain, which leads to more wins.
But the Giants rarely used their offensive possession to put themselves in a position to win the game. This is clear from their very first possession of each game. In fact, it’s clear from the whole first quarter.
The Giants offense only averaged two first downs on their first possession in 2020. Further, they had four games in which they didn’t move the chains at all on their first drive, going 1-3 in those games. Compare that to games in which they made at least three first downs, and the Giants sported a record of 3-1.
Those first drives dictated how the Giants offense played the rest of the game, regardless if they scored on their first possession. When the Giants reached three or more first downs on their first drive, they averaged 26 points and 315 yards per game. When they had two or fewer, they averaged 15 points and 295 yards per game.
Unfortunately, the Giants had two or fewer first downs on their first drives in 12 games. And the team performed much of the same in the rest of the first half; the Giants were 27th in the NFL in first half points per game, averaging 9.1.
It’s not necessarily a death sentence to have two first downs on the first drive. In fact, the Bills averaged 1.5 first downs on their first drives, but were fourth in the NFL in first half points per game with 15.5.
The Bills seemed to understand the importance of a sustained offense, and made up for it on their subsequent drives. Buffalo was also fourth in the NFL in second half points per game with 14.5, almost identical to their first half numbers.
The Giants, meanwhile, did not get much better as the game went on. They were 31st in the NFL in second half points per game with 8.4.
In a game of inches, every yard, point, and first down helps to win. Thus, each time the Giants failed to move the chains on the first drive, they set themselves up to lose.
Third and Never
The Giants were nearly as bad in third down conversions as they were in getting a fresh set of downs. A reminder: The team was 30th in the league, making 72 third downs.
Even if you look at the Giants’ overall conversion rate, instead of the number they made, they were 29th in the league with 36.4% — ahead of only the Bengals, Bears, and Jets.
Both of these numbers pale when comparing to the Bills. The Bills were tied for seventh in the league for third downs made with 93, but first in the NFL in percentage with 49.7%.
The importance of starting strong is also evident when breaking down the Giants third down conversions by game.
When the Giants fail to achieve the majority of their first downs within the first half, which happened in five games in 2020, they never had a winning percentage of third down conversions.
Further, the Giants only had three games in which they made more third downs than they missed. In two of those games, the Giants offense had three or more first downs on their first drive.
Along with scoring more points and yards, the Giants had a higher third down conversion percentage when moving the chains three or more times on their first drive, 38% vs 33% when they had two first downs or fewer.
Clearly the tone and pace of a game is dictated by an offenses’ ability to come out hot and stay hot. But the Giants fail to do either. And the team lacked the big-play ability to get them back into games once they fell in a hole.
It’s unlikely that the NFC East will send another losing team to the playoffs. If the Giants don’t find a player, a coach, or a scheme to help keep their offense on the field, they’ll come up short in the playoff chase yet again.