Entering the 2022 season, the NY Giants front office was left with one pressing question: who will be Big Blue’s quarterback in 2023 and beyond? Daniel Jones’ play in ’22 should leave no doubt, as he is their guy.
Jones’ season was revolutionary. Danny Dimes set career highs in completions, passing yards, average yards per pass completion, passer rating, QBR, rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, games played, and fourth-quarter comebacks. The Giants quarterback also set a career-high in passing attempts while posting the fewest interceptions and fumbles of his career. The new question surrounding Jones: how much should he get paid?
He will get at least $30 million a year this offseason, which will surprise people, but it shouldn’t. The narrative around Jones has not caught up to reality. Jones is an efficient quarterback whose playing style will win the Giants a lot of games in the future. Jones is a Top-10 quarterback in the NFL and has a better long-term future than all but seven QBs. In this piece, we explain why.
NFL QB Tiers
Tier 1: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert
These are the four superstar quarterbacks in the NFL. They all have cannon arms, extreme athleticism, and the ability to will their teams to victory. Any rational NFL team would trade their quarterback for one of these four.
Tier 2: Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers and Jalen Hurts
These four are in the star quarterback tier. They have all shown flashes of being superstar quarterbacks at one point and all have immense athletic and arm talents, but all have certain limitations that hold them off the superstar tier.
Tier 3: Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Tom Brady
These are the above-average quarterbacks. All seven of these quarterbacks have had seasons in which they were star-level quarterbacks while also having seasons that were below average. Six of these seven quarterbacks have won a playoff game in their careers, but all will need significant help to win future Super Bowls. For Tom Brady, he’s the GOAT, but age has caught up to him.
Tier 4: Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, Brock Purdy, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill
This tier features average to below-average quarterbacks. All nine of these quarterbacks have had some successful seasons, but outside of Russell Wilson and Jimmy G, none had much playoff success or are in the back half of their careers
Tier 5: Kenny Pickett, Mac Jones, Jameis Winston, Zach Wilson, Sam Darnold, Davis Mills, Matt Ryan, Taylor Heinicke
This tier is pretty straightforward. These quarterbacks are all low-end starting quarterbacks or high-end backup quarterbacks.
The quarterbacks on Tier 1 and Tier 2 all have significantly higher ceilings than Daniel Jones, and you would take all of them over Jones long term, except for Rodgers of course, because he will turn 40 years old, and may just retire.
That leaves only seven quarterbacks who I would take over Danny Dimes long term. I would undoubtedly take Jones over every quarterback who is on tier 3. Let’s compare them:
Daniel Jones vs. Matthew Stafford
Stafford is very limited athletically. PFF gave Jones the sixth-best running grade among NFL quarterbacks. The one thing that has kept Stafford from being one of the NFL’s truly elite quarterbacks throughout his career are injuries. This season alone Stafford suffered two separate concussions in November and was shut down for the season in early December with a spinal cord contusion. Stafford is only getting older and has a mammoth contract that keeps him under the books through at least 2025.
Daniel Jones vs. Kirk Cousins
Nobody defines the word average more than Kirk Cousins. Every year the quarterback’s team seemingly hovers around the .500 mark, with an occasional magical regular season, before fizzling out late in the season. Cousins has started NFL games in each of the last 11 seasons but has just one playoff win and three playoff appearances. Jones already has one playoff win in his four seasons. Jones outplayed Cousins twice in their two head-to-head matchups this campaign, including in the Wild Card Round.
Daniel Jones vs. Kyler Murray
Murray, who just got a massive 5-year, $230 million contract last offseason, tore his ACL in early December and will likely be out for the first quarter of next season in addition to the end of this season. Murray’s game is predicated on athleticism, so a torn ACL is more devastating for him than most NFL quarterbacks. Jones is 6-5, 220 pounds, the modern build for an NFL quarterback. With the brutal nature of football, I would feel much more comfortable with a bigger quarterback, rather than an injury-prone smaller quarterback. In the second half of NFL seasons, Jones has a 12-14-1 record while Murray’s is a horrendous 9-20, despite playing with a vastly better roster over that time frame.
Daniel Jones vs. Dak Prescott
Entering this season, the two quarterbacks didn’t belong in the same breath as each other. Now, Jones has stunningly surpassed Prescott. Prescott was tied for the most interceptions in football with 15, despite playing just 12 games. This past Sunday, Prescott threw two interceptions in the Cowboys Divisional Round loss to the 49ers. Prescott had a horrendous game, and if he gave the Cowboys even slightly below-average quarterback play, they would have easily beaten the 49ers. Prescott is continually given one of the NFL’s best rosters and has failed to win more than a single playoff game in any season of his career. Prescott also offers significantly less athleticism than Jones.
Daniel Jones vs. Tom Brady\Jared Goff
Brady is 45. If you watched the Wild Card game against Dallas, it is obvious that Brady does not have much left in the tank, and will do anything to avoid getting hit. PFF ranked Goff as the 20th-best quarterback in 2022, and he is one of the least athletic quarterbacks in the game. We’d take Jones over him any day of the week.
Jones is by far better than the rest of these guys
Jones is clearly better than the Tier 4 and Tier 5 quarterbacks. Derek Carr fell off hard this season, despite getting to throw to Davante Adams, receiving the fifth worst PFF grade among starting quarterbacks. How could you possibly want Carr over Jones long term? Tannehill is almost the exact same quarterback as Jones, just without the elite athleticism.
There is no way you would rather have Watson over Jones, because of both on-field and the well-documented off-field troubles. PFF graded Watson as the 37th-best quarterback in the NFL this season, worse than all NFL starters and a handful of backups. Russell Wilson has fallen off a cliff in Denver, and while Jimmy G wins a lot of matchups, he only averages eight games played per season, and he is by far the least athletic NFL quarterback.
Brock Purdy is a fun story, but who knows what the future has in store for him. Tua had a very good season in 2022, but his long history with concussions put his NFL future in doubt, making it hard to commit to him for the long haul.
Justin Fields could crack the Top 10 NFL QB list in 2023, but he is just 6-20 in his NFL career and received the 59th-best passing grade among quarterbacks who appeared in an NFL game in 2022, which is absurdly bad. All the other quarterbacks in the game can’t be trusted in pressure situations.
Using simple logic, there are only seven quarterbacks I’d rather have than Jones, which is stunning to think about, considering how Jones was viewed prior to the 2022 season. It’ll be on Joe Schoen to keep Jones in East Rutherford for several years, but it’s surely what fans want to see happen.
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