NFL Expert Picks Week 9: Part Two


 

Part One: 9-5 last week which placed me tied for fourth for the week. I am now 76-42 (.644) overall which puts me in third place behind Wickersham, 85-35, and Mortensen, 82-36. I pretty happy with that and I still think I can get to first place. Just one bad week for Wickersham and Mortensen and the three of us could be tied or first.

There are a lot of tough picks this week and I need more information about injuries and weather before I can make good choices. So for now I will only pick tonight’s game. Tomorrow I will post the remaining picks.

Chiefs at Chargers I like the Chargers here. The Chargers are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Browns. I still don’t understand how that happened but I fully believe the Chargers will bounce back strong. I’m not sure that Norv Turner knows what to do with all that talent but the players will be ready to save some face and they will execute well. The Chiefs a have a major QB problem and it won’t be resolved by 8:20 PM ET tonight.

Part Two: I’m off to a 1-0 start. Not much to brag about, the Chargers were a pretty easy pick. However, a win is a win and I’ll take a win anyway I can get it. Here are the rest of the picks.

Broncos @ Bengals I like the Broncos. Peyton Manning has never lost to the Bengals and the Broncos are really heating up. Bengals have lost three in a row.

Ravens @ Browns  The Ravens win. The Browns defense did a nice job of shutting down the Chargers last week but I don’t think they can do it again this week. Statistically the Chargers offense and the Baltimore offense are very similar so you could believe that the Browns can stop the Ravens. The difference is Ravens Coach John Harbaugh is a more skilled coach than Chargers Coach Norv Turner. Harbaugh knows that he has a dynamic team and he’ll use that to create lots of holes in the Browns defense. You should also know that under Harbaugh’s coaching the Ravens are 4-0 after a bye week.

Cardinals @ Packers The Packers are always tough to beat at home but now the Packers have won three games in a row and seem to have found that magic from the last two years. The Cardinals have no run game and have lost four in a row after starting 4-0. The Cardinals are in a serious tailspin.

Bears @ Titans I like the Bears. Tennessee is 3-5 but they have won 2 of their last 3 and have definitely improved. I don’t think they’ve improved enough to beat a team that is holding opponents to 14.2 points per game, second in the league.

Dolphins @ Colts Miami wins. Both teams are 4-3 and I like what I see in Miami. They have a balanced offense with 327.9 yards passing per game and 115.9 yards rushing per game. Also, the defense is holding teams to 18 points per game, fifth in the league. The Colts are 3-1 at home but the Dolphins have won three in a row and seem to have found a nice rhythm.

Panthers @ Redskins Redskins will win but this could go the other way because when the Redskins win they win on offense alone. Their defense is terrible. Redskins have a big advantage in turnovers, they are +7 and the Panthers are -5. The Panthers offense is playing terrible but if they happen to get their act together and stop the turnovers, this game could be a real battle.

Lions @ Jaguars The Lions started out 0-4 but have recently beaten the Eagles and the Seahakks. I see new life in the Lions and I see no life in the Jaguars.

Bills @ Texans This will be all Texans, all day long. Texans are 6-1 and returning from a bye week. The Texans are scoring 30.9 points per game (2nd in NFL) and the Bills are giving up 32.4 points per game (32nd in the league).

Buccaneers @ Raiders I like Tampa Bay to win. Both teams are 3-4. Oakland is giving up 26.7 points per game and the Buccaneers scored 38, 28, and 36 points in their last three games.  The Raiders just won two games in a row so you would think that moment is on their side except that they defeated two terrible defenses and now they are facing an average defense that is showing improvements. Buccaneers have a slight edge in turnovers at +7 versus the Raiders’ +1.

Vikings @ Seahawks I like the Seahawks to win. They are 3-0 at home.  The Seattle defense is ranked 3rd giving up just 16.8 points per game and a very stingy 14 points per game at home. The Vikings offense is scoring a respectable 23 points per game but they won’t be able to overcome the Seahawks defense in Seattle.

Steelers @ GiantsThe Giants will win because of four reasons:

  1. Giants are 3-1 at home and Steelers are 1-3 on the road.
  2. Giants have +13 takeaways and Steelers are just +1
  3. Giants have won four in a row but the last win was not pretty. I believe this shook up the Giants and in response they will show up this Sunday executing as they did in their wins in weeks 5,6, and 7. In those three games, they looked like defending champions.
  4. The Giants are outscoring the Steelers 29.3 points per game to 23.9 points per game.

 

Cowboys @ Falcons Falcons will defeat the Cowboys. Not only are the Falcons undefeated at home they are undefeated this entire season. It is the Falcons’ league and everyone else is playing flag football. The perennially overrated Cowboys are 3-4. The Cowboys have -11 takeaways and the Falcons have +10 takeaways.

Eagles @ Saints The Saints will score at least 35 points against the defensive-coordinator-less Eagles defense. The Saints don’t have much of  a defense either but their offense is strong enough to completely dominate the Eagles defense. In addition, the Eagles have -9 takeaways and the Saints have 0 takeaways.

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