Cincinnati -3 @ Miami – O/U 42.5
Cincinnati opened as a 1.5-point road choice last Wednesday, with overall public perception driving the line upwards to the key number of 3. The Bengals have won four straight since a 2-2 start, while the Dolphins have dropped four straight since beginning 3-0; neither the starting line or the subsequent movement should be surprising.
Miami ran through New England en route to building a 17-3 lead last Sunday, but they forgot about Lamar Miller in the second half and their margin disappeared. Starting offensive tackle Jonathan Martin has gone “awol” from the team, not ideal news with the Bengals stout front rolling into town. Ryan Tannehill will need to be crisp and quick with his reads. He was sacked six times last week.
While the Bengals offensive explosion last week was wildly impressive, look for them to re-establish the ground game in week 9 (just 79 yards vs. the Jets). Miami can be had through the air, but running the ball early and often will take pressure off mistake prone quarterback Andy Dalton and slow down Cameron Wake and the pass rush.
Prediction: 17-13 Cincinnati