Week 16 NFL Picks

Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports

Dolphins @ Bills +3 — O/U 43

Looking back on the tale of these teams, I think about the old NFL adage, “It’s not who you play, it’s when you play them”. Buffalo nearly won their opener vs. the Patriots, then beat the Panthers week two en route to a 3-1 start… before the bottom dropped out. Their fortunes have turned on injuries, as many teams do during the NFL season. Their top-pick  EJ Manuel has missed several weeks, and will miss this game as well. They also will be without their #1 WR Stevie Johnson.

The Dolphins have had their own issues this year. The whole bullying story broke, and accusations levied against Richie Incognito shined a negative light on the entire organization. That leads to the elephant in the room mentality, and what seems to have galvanized this team to a certain extent.

Both teams are coming off wins last week, but this is a must win situation for the Dolphins. Miami has shown that they can win on the road. Buffalo has played well at home. They have only failed to cover two times ATS this season: a 10-point loss prior to the Chiefs bye week and vs. the Falcons giving five points, losing in overtime. Their other loss was to the Bengals, again in OT.

The loss of Stevie Johnson will hurt the Bills. I don’t see Tannehill throwing a pick-six in this one either. That was ultimately the difference in Miami in week seven…I like the Dolphins laying the 3. I think the over 43 might also be in the realm too.