Wild-Card Weekend: Picks Against the Spread

Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Chiefs @ Colts -1 — O/U 46

Turnovers almost always determine playoff games. The Colts have been getting their share of late. They have 8 in the last two weeks, 4 of which came via the Chiefs two weeks back. The Chiefs also have 8 in the last three games, albeit 7 came against the Raiders alone.

Looking at both these teams, I have to say that the more physical unit is KC. The last time they met in KC the Chiefs had little to play for. They were two games back in the loss column and had lost two games to division rival Denver. They were pretty much locked into the #5 seed in the AFC. The Colts on the other hand still had hopes of the #2 seed. It was apparent the Chiefs played very vanilla on offense, and didn’t want to show their cards prior to what looked like would be a rematch in the playoffs.

The Colts have been good at home beating quality foes in the Seahawks and Broncos, something the Chiefs didn’t accomplish this season. Indy was 6-2 at Lucas Oil Stadium, losing to the Dolphins and being blown out by a physical Rams team. The Chiefs were equally effective on the road — 6-2 — a sure sign of a good team. This record could have been 7-1 had an officiating blunder not given the Chargers new life last week.

The edge in the coaching department goes to Andy Reid. Andy is 10-9 in the playoffs and has taken Philadelphia to the Super Bowl. Chuck Pagano’s postseason record reflects 0-1, but Bruce Arians coached that game for all intents and purposes.

I’m going to play the Chiefs +1 in this game. I actually see the Chiefs winning in rather easy fashion, too.