Championship Weekend: Picks Against the Spread

Credit: Sam Sharpe-USA TODAY Sports

49ers @ Seahawks -3.5 — O/U 39.5

What we have here is a changing of the guard. The AFC Championship Game offers two venerable QB’s in the twilight of their respective careers, whereas the NFC CG gives us a couple of the up and comers of the league. This matchup has developed rapidly, led by defenses that are a pair of the most physical in the league. Matchups will determine this game!

I give the edge to the 49ers at QB here. Collin Kaepernick has been in the NFC CG, and I believe he is also the more athletic of the two. Russell Wilson hasn’t had to be great lately. He is on the edge of tying Big Ben’s record for most games won in their first two seasons. He’s very good as well.

The running games feature two very good to great RB’s. Marshawn Lynch is a rare player in this league — “Beast Mode” describes his style to a tee.  He’s up against the 49ers, who just last week shut down a pretty good running game in Carolina. Frank Gore is no slouch either of course. I give a slight edge to the Seahawks.

The receivers: in this matchup I favor the 49ers on talent for the most part. Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, and a healthy Michael Crabtree are formidable. They lose most of the edge via the Seattle secondary. The LB’s for the Seahawks can cover Davis and Gore or Kendall Hunter out of the backfield.

Both defenses are as advertised. I have the edge here going to Seattle on the strength of their secondary. I look for the referees to be reluctant to influence the outcome of the game; then again, that should have been the case last week in New England.

A major concern for Seattle is the official unavailability of Percy Harvin. I truly believe that he would have been a key to this game if healthy. As a result, I’ll take the 49ers +3.5. This will be a hard hitting game, but I’m going with the over 39.5 as I think there could be multiple scores by the defenses.

Good Luck vs. your man, see you in two weeks before the Big Game!