The Biggest Game of the Year

Today is what this blog title says it is. But then again every game is the biggest game of the year in the 16-game season that is the National Football League. However, today it truly is the biggest game of the year and not just for the the G-Men.

When the Giants and Eagles take the field tonight on NBC there is a lot at stake for both teams.

One team is trying to wrap up the hardest division in football in only Week 9 while the other tries to keep pace in the wild card race and keep their slim hopes alive for a divisional title.

Had this game been placed in the Monday Night Football slot tomorrow night instead of the Arizona/San Francisco matchup that is sure to see the 49ers get blown out in Arizona, I think it might have drawn the largest audience in the history of Monday Night Football, surpassing the Dallas/Philly crowd from earlier this season. But it will probably do fine audience wise and ratings wise on NBC tonight.

The 7-1 Giants have dropped their magic number to seven on the season and can make that number six with a victory tonight. The 5-3 Eagles have won three straight after a disappointing 2-3 start to the ’08 campaign and they can match the Redskins 6-3 record with a win tonight (though they would still be in third place having lost the only head-to-head meeting so far with Washington).

For a breakdown of tonight’s game let’s start with the birds from Philly.

It was only a few weeks ago that many started to question everything that is the Philadelphia Eagles. From their players to their coaching staff, the 2-3 Eagles were the worst of the NFC East (not that that is a bad thing) and they dropped both of their divisional contests (one against Dallas and the other to Washington). With Brian Westbrook out, it was a series of goal-line stands in Chicago that cost the Eagles a win and started counting down the days until they were mathematically eliminated from the postseason picture. After demolishing St. Louis in Week 1, the Eagles lost to Dallas in shootout before bouncing back to beat Pittsburgh in Week 3. But in Week 4 they suffered the devastating loss to the Bears and followed that up with another heart breaker to Washington in Week 5. The Eagles were able to come from behind late against San Francisco in Week 6 and put an end to their losing streak and take a .500 record 3-3 into their bye week. And since their bye week the Eagles have returned to the team we thought they would be in pre-season with convincing wins over Atlanta and Seattle.

The key to success for the Eagles is quite simple. If Brian Westbrook plays they are a tough team to beat. If he doesn’t, well not so tough. Westbrook is the key to the Eagles offense more so than any other player on the field when the Eagles have the ball. Donovan McNabb is still overrated and while he can have big games, he is no longer the shifty QB who can break out a monster run if given the gap. If the Eagles can get the ball to Westbrook enough times there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that they can come home with a W today. But I am sure the team known as Big Blue will be aware of that.

Whether playing in East Rutherford or on the road, the Giants have made easy work of everyone this season with the exception of the Cleveland Browns who took them by surprise and used the Giants turnovers to beat them. But dating back to Week 1 of the 2007 season the Giants have lost two games on the road. Week 1 of 2007 at Dallas and Week5 of this season at Cleveland. That is a record of 14-2 in their last 16 games on the road. And aside from their wild card playoff loss at Philadelphia in 2007, the last time the Giants lost a regular season game in Philadelphia was way back in Week 1 of the 2004 season when Kurt Warner was still the starting QB for the Giants. In other words, in the Eli Manning era, the G-Men are a solid 3-1 at Philly (including the playoffs) and 5-3 overall. And while some might say that those statistics are irrelevant since the teams change every year, they are relevant to the New York Giants. When you consider the fact that the Giants are basically the same team they were last year, just better (I know that sounds crazy to say without Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora, but it’s true), and the fact that they swept the Eagles last season outscoring them 32-19, you have to like the Giants chances today.

Sure, give the Eagles credit, they are 5-3 and have won three straight games this season, but let’s take a better look at the 2008 Philadelphia Eagles.

Their five wins are against St. Louis, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Atlanta, and Seattle.

Their three losses are against Dallas, Chicago, and Washington.

The Giants have beaten the same exact teams as them (and switch Cincinnati with Atlanta).

But the Giants have also beaten two of the three teams the Eagles lost to.

It is risky to play the game of we beat them, they beat so and so, and so and so beat us, but it has some meaning in this case. Many will turn to the fact that both the Giants and the Eagles beat Pittsburgh. The only difference is that the Giants went on the road and did it. And while the boxscore shows the Giants over the Steelers 21-14, everyone knows that game could have easily been about 42-14 had the Giants called better plays in the red zone or on the goal line.

But Giants/Steelers is a story for another day. Today the story is the NFC East and the chance that a team not named the Dallas Cowboys might wrap up the league’s most competitive division in Week 9.

If the Giants win tonight here is what the NFC East will look like (division records in parentheses):

NYG 8-1 (3-0)
WSH 6-3 (2-1)
DAL 5-4 (1-2)
PHI 5-4 (0-3)

In this case the Giants would hold a full two games lead over the Redskins will still a game to play against them. And if the Giants went even just 4-3 in their last seven games, the Redskins would have to go 6-1 just to tie them, and they still have a game against each other. Basically this would put it in the books for the Giants and it would take some sort New York Mets-like collapse to keep them from winning the NFC East.

But if the Giants lose tonight, the East is even more interesting:

NYG 7-2 (2-1)
WSH 6-3 (2-1)
PHI 6-3 (1-2)
DAL 5-4 (1-2)

A loss would give the Giants only a one game lead over Washington which isn’t safe at all. A loss would also push the Cowboys farther into the basement of the division and make any second half comeback from them close to improbable.  Philly would sit pretty in third with a head-to-head loss to Washington keeping them from Philly. While the Redskins will be home tonight on their bye week cheering for the Eagles, the Giants will have the ‘Boys in Dallas on their side.

Before I can put any more statistical scenarios into this post, I will leave you with this. The New York Football Giants will be 8-1 at the end of the day and the Philadelphia Eagles will be 5-4.

New York Football Giants 17, Philadelphia 13.