Alan Matthews over at Doc’s Sports has a sobering article up today about the NY Giants’ poor probabilities of having a winning 2010 season. Here is the breakdown:
"Will New York get back to the postseason and save Coughlin’s job? The Giants’ ‘over/under’ for NFL season win totals on BetUS is 8.5 and they are +275 to win the NFC East (third in division). Let’s break down the 2010 New York Giants schedule:Week 1: Sunday, Sep. 12, Carolina, 1:00 PMWeek 2: Sunday, Sep. 19, at Indianapolis, 8:20 PMWeek 3: Sunday, Sep. 26, Tennessee, 1:00 PMWeek 4: Sunday, Oct. 3, Chicago, 8:20 PMWeek 5: Sunday, Oct. 10, at Houston, 1:00 PMWeek 6: Sunday, Oct. 17, Detroit, 1:00 PMWeek 7: Monday, Oct. 25, at Dallas, 8:30 PMWeek 8: BYEWeek 9: Sunday, Nov. 7, at Seattle, 4:05 PMWeek 10: Sunday, Nov. 14, Dallas, 4:15 PMWeek 11: Sunday, Nov. 21, at Philadelphia, 8:20 PMWeek 12: Sunday, Nov. 28, Jacksonville, 1:00 PMWeek 13: Sunday, Dec. 5, Washington, 1:00 PMWeek 14: Sunday, Dec. 12, at Minnesota, 1:00 PMWeek 15: Sunday, Dec. 19, Philadelphia, 1:00 PMWeek 16: Sunday, Dec. 26, at Green Bay, 4:15 PMWeek 17: Sunday, Jan. 2, at Washington, 1:00 PMThis is ranked as the seventh-toughest schedule in the NFL, with an opponents’ 2009 winning percentage of .527 (135-121). New York has to like the fact it only has one back-to-back road set in consecutive weeks, that coming at the end of the year. But there’s only one division game in the first nine weeks.It’s interesting that New York opens the New Meadowlands Stadium against the team that closed out the old Giants Stadium in 2009 with a 44-7 Week 16 win, the Carolina Panthers. Week 2 brings the hype of the Manning Bowl and it’s a prime-time national TV affair (naturally). Eli and Peyton have met just once as pros, a 26-21 Colts win in the 2006 season opener. With four of the first six at home but three of the final four on the road, the Giants will need to start fast.The Giants should be favored at home against Chicago but haven’t beaten the Bears in a regular season home game since a 28-24 victory in Yankee Stadium on Oct. 5, 1969.That game at Dallas in Week 7 marks the fourth year in a row the Giants’ game at Dallas will be played at night. And you would have to say the bye comes in a perfect position – right after that first division game and it means the Giants don’t have to play on a short week following the Cowboys game. That is the latest the Giants have played their first division game since the 1970 merger. Last season, the Giants swept the Cowboys for the first time since 2004.New York doesn’t see the Donovan McNabb-less Eagles until Week 11, but the Giants probably are glad to see McNabb out of Philly considering the Eagles swept New York last year (scoring 85 total points) for the first time since 2004. As for McNabb’s new team, the Giants have swept the Redskins three times in the past four years.The Giants will play seven games against 2009 playoff teams: two each against Dallas and Philadelphia and one apiece vs. Minnesota, Green Bay and Indianapolis. They will close the season with two road games for the first time since 2005. The trip to Green Bay is the first matchup since Brett Favre’s final game as a Packer in the 2007 NFC title game.This looks an awful lot like another 8-8 record – I’m not sure there’s a ‘lock’ road win on this schedule. Seattle probably won’t be very good but it’s never easy to travel across country to play, even after a bye. The Giants probably finish third in the division again and Coughlin probably is let go."
Honestly, I’m not sure where the wins or losses come from this article which is one of the things that I’m looking for from handicapping source. In the end, it just sounds like a lot of nay-saying without any real breakdown. So to that end, here are my rather conservative predictions with an actual tally of wins and losses – rest assured Coughlin, Fewell and Reese keep their jobs after the last game.
Week 1: Carolina – WIN
Week 2: at Indianapolis – LOSS
Week 3: Tennessee – WIN
Week 4: Chicago – WIN
Week 5: at Houston – WIN
Week 6: Detroit – WIN
Week 7: at Dallas – LOSS
Week 8: BYE – Giants are 5-2 at the break.
Week 9: at Seattle – WIN
Week 10: Dallas – WIN
Week 11: at Philadelphia – LOSS
Week 12: Jacksonville – WIN
Week 13: Washington – WIN
Week 14: at Minnesota – LOSS
Week 15: Philadelphia – WIN
Week 16: at Green Bay – LOSS
Week 17: at Washington – LOSS
Total: Playoff bound @ 10 wins, 6 losses
To keep things a bit simpler this far in advance, I have the Giants splitting with the other teams in the division with the losses coming on the road. I also have penciled them in as loosing to a few tough teams on the road, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Indianapolis.
Carolina at home — call me crazy but I cannot fathom they lose that game again. Mental, physical, and emotional stakes will be as high or higher than any other opener for the Giants that I can remember.
I do not believe Seattle, although improved from last year, will have a cohesive product this year. I think the Giants can intimidate that team into submission and really dominate out west on the road — there is no way they lose that game after the bye.
Tennessee will be Bulluck’s showcasing of what the Titans are missing out on… that is a defensive win in my book for the Giants who are able to shut down Chris Johnson before he can even get going.
Chicago may end up being a gutted out field goal in OT – but a win is a win.
Houston lost their star offensive coordinator to the Redskins. I see them having somewhat of a disappointing year, no attempt at insult to Rick Dennison or anything. But they just may not be firing on all cylinders that early in the season. Giants edge them out on the road.
Now, if I wanted to get a little more aggressive with this schedule, I would tell you that I think the Giants playing at a high level at the end of the season have a better chance of winning in Green Bay than in Minnesota… I also think the last game of the year at Washington could favor the Giants, especially if a tie breaker is on the line. It’s a stretch in the sense that no one else is taking it quite this far yet, but it’s at least imaginable that if the Giants defense rebounds, and the offense stays or improves slightly — the Giants could go 12-4 and recapture the NFC East title.
At absolute worst, I see the Giants at 9-7 (loss to Chicago perhaps) still with a shot at Wild Card… with no changes to the coaching staff or front office.
Book it!