Pro Football Reference has an extremely interesting article up today about the lists of all..."/> Pro Football Reference has an extremely interesting article up today about the lists of all..."/>

Breaking Down QB Hot Streaks Heading Into Super Bowl


Pro Football Reference has an extremely interesting article up today about the lists of all-time hottest QBs heading into the Superbowl.

Make of it what you will, but Eli Manning’s 2007 performance at the end of the season to catapult the Giants to the Super Bowl is among the best in history according to PFF’s era-adjusted QB performance metric.

Check out where Eli ranks over the last 4 games before the Superbowl and you’ll be amazed.  Eli haters — prepare to eat some serious crow:

Dan Marino1984MIA203.5Tom Brady2007NWE89.6
Jim Kelly1990BUF191.9Bart Starr1967GNB88.5
Ken Stabler1976OAK165.9Joe Theismann1983WAS87.8
Peyton Manning2009IND164.6Drew Brees2009NOR87.6
Roger Staubach1975DAL157.1Tom Brady2004NWE87.0
Roger Staubach1977DAL152.7Mark Rypien1991WAS87.0
Terry Bradshaw1978PIT141.0Jim McMahon1985CHI86.7
Bart Starr1966GNB138.1Ken Anderson1981CIN86.0
Joe Montana1988SFO137.6Fran Tarkenton1973MIN85.0
Joe Montana1989SFO132.9John Elway1987DEN84.6
Troy Aikman1993DAL130.7Jim Plunkett1983RAI83.7
Daryle Lamonica1967OAK126.7Brad Johnson2002TAM80.9
John Elway1989DEN120.5John Elway1998DEN79.6
Roger Staubach1971DAL120.5Fran Tarkenton1976MIN79.1
Joe Montana1981SFO119.3Brett Favre1997GNB78.4
Troy Aikman1992DAL117.9Johnny Unitas1970BAL77.4
Troy Aikman1995DAL116.1Joe Namath1968NYJ68.9
Chris Chandler1998ATL115.1Jim Plunkett1980OAK68.2
Earl Morrall1968BAL115.0Peyton Manning2006IND66.3
Matt Hasselbeck2005SEA114.9Tony Eason1985NWE65.4
Aaron Rodgers2010GNB112.9Jim Kelly1993BUF63.0
Fran Tarkenton1974MIN111.8Jeff Hostetler1990NYG62.4
Eli Manning2007NYG108.2Tom Brady2003NWE59.7
Stan Humphries1994SDG107.8Terry Bradshaw1975PIT59.4
David Woodley1982MIA106.6Len Dawson1969KAN59.2
Terry Bradshaw1974PIT106.6John Elway1986DEN56.3
Brett Favre1996GNB106.6Billy Kilmer1972WAS48.5
Terry Bradshaw1979PIT103.2Vince Ferragamo1979RAM45.8
Kurt Warner2008ARI103.1Phil Simms1986NYG45.6
Kurt Warner2001STL102.4Craig Morton1970DAL45.5
Joe Theismann1982WAS102.1Kerry Collins2000NYG44.8
Bob Griese1973MIA100.6Jim Kelly1991BUF44.6
Jake Delhomme2003CAR100.2Bob Griese1972MIA43.1
John Elway1997DEN99.7Donovan McNabb2004PHI40.4
Kurt Warner1999STL98.4Joe Kapp1969MIN39.8
Steve Young1994SFO98.0Doug Williams1987WAS37.7
Len Dawson1966KAN97.7Tom Brady2001NWE35.2
Ben Roethlisberger2010PIT96.3Neil O’Donnell1995PIT29.5
Rich Gannon2002OAK94.2Steve McNair1999TEN24.2
Ben Roethlisberger2005PIT93.2Ron Jaworski1980PHI21.0
Joe Montana1984SFO93.2Trent Dilfer2000BAL20.9
Craig Morton1977DEN92.1Boomer Esiason1988CIN2.9
Roger Staubach1978DAL91.8Jim Kelly1992BUF2.2
Ben Roethlisberger2008PIT91.2Drew Bledsoe1996NWE-10.7
Bob Griese1971MIA90.8Rex Grossman2006CHI-13.1

According to this ranking he’s considered a top 25 QB in NFL history who was playing extremely good football for his team heading into the playoffs.   Let’s look at who Eli first ranks below on this list to find out what kind of company he’s dealing with.  And keep in mind a lot of these players are up there multiple times in the first 25 slots:

Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Ken Stabler, Peyton Manning, Roger Staubach, Terry Bradshaw, Bart Starr, Joe Montana, Daryle Lamonica, Troy Aikman, Matt Hasselbeck, Chris Chandler, Earl Morrall, and Fran Tarkenton.  Obviously hard to argue with…

Oh and one more thing, see that name two spaces above Eli Manning’s name? Yes,  Aaron Rodgers — who undoubtedly is playing tremendous football right now and seems to have taken over honors as the league’s best passer next to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees… he’s having only a slightly better wild card performance than Eli Manning did in 2007. Do with that information what you will, just sayin’… the comparison has been made.

So obviously, Eli is trailing some good company here.  But now the question remains – who exactly does he rank above? Frankly there are so many, so let’s  just focus on the most interesting names in NFL history shall we:

Terry Bradshaw, Kurt Warner,  Brett Favre, Joe Montana, Len Dawson, Ben Roethlisberger, , Rich Gannon, Steve Young, John Elway, Bob Griese, Joe Theismann, Ron Jaworski, Jim Kelly, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Fran Tarkenton,  Jim McMahon, among many others who rank below Eli Manning’s accomplishments in 2007. And of course you have the most obvious comparisons —  PHIL SIMMS IN 1986, Jeff Hostetler in 1990, and TOM BRADY IN 2007 all rank below Eli Manning by a wide margin.

Of the players still currently playing in the NFL, Peyton Manning is clearly the best of the lot… although his best season statistically did not yield a Super Bowl title.  Still, he clearly is the elite QB among his contemporaries.  Matt Hasselbeck and Aaron Rodgers just barely get above Eli’s numbers for the 2007 season… and we’ll see what becomes of Rodgers’ momentum in a couple of weeks.

Ben Roethlisberger obviously has been playing well, and he is a future hall-of-famer regardless of what you think of his personal decisions.  And relative to himself, Big Ben is pretty consistent in his effectiveness.  According to this measure, Rodgers clearly has the edge heading into Super Bowl Sunday.

I just thought that it was worth noting that the Defense isn’t the ONLY reason the NY Giants won the Super Bowl in 2007, and to nudge everyone out there critical of Eli — he has shown before that he is capable of playing great football.  If he did “take a step sideways” this season, if he was just trying to “do too much” with the INTs — we’ll see next year.  Hopefully though Eli can get back to making better decisions in the future and get his name appearing on this board at the end of next season for a second time… hopefully with many more appearances to come.