Breaking Down QB Hot Streaks Heading Into Super Bowl

Pro Football Reference has an extremely interesting article up today about the lists of all-time hottest QBs heading into the Superbowl.

Make of it what you will, but Eli Manning’s 2007 performance at the end of the season to catapult the Giants to the Super Bowl is among the best in history according to PFF’s era-adjusted QB performance metric.

Check out where Eli ranks over the last 4 games before the Superbowl and you’ll be amazed. Eli haters — prepare to eat some serious crow:

Player	Year	Tm	Prev4G	Player	Year	Tm	Prev4G
Dan Marino	1984	MIA	203.5	Tom Brady	2007	NWE	89.6
Jim Kelly	1990	BUF	191.9	Bart Starr	1967	GNB	88.5
Ken Stabler	1976	OAK	165.9	Joe Theismann	1983	WAS	87.8
Peyton Manning	2009	IND	164.6	Drew Brees	2009	NOR	87.6
Roger Staubach	1975	DAL	157.1	Tom Brady	2004	NWE	87.0
Roger Staubach	1977	DAL	152.7	Mark Rypien	1991	WAS	87.0
Terry Bradshaw	1978	PIT	141.0	Jim McMahon	1985	CHI	86.7
Bart Starr	1966	GNB	138.1	Ken Anderson	1981	CIN	86.0
Joe Montana	1988	SFO	137.6	Fran Tarkenton	1973	MIN	85.0
Joe Montana	1989	SFO	132.9	John Elway	1987	DEN	84.6
Troy Aikman	1993	DAL	130.7	Jim Plunkett	1983	RAI	83.7
Daryle Lamonica	1967	OAK	126.7	Brad Johnson	2002	TAM	80.9
John Elway	1989	DEN	120.5	John Elway	1998	DEN	79.6
Roger Staubach	1971	DAL	120.5	Fran Tarkenton	1976	MIN	79.1
Joe Montana	1981	SFO	119.3	Brett Favre	1997	GNB	78.4
Troy Aikman	1992	DAL	117.9	Johnny Unitas	1970	BAL	77.4
Troy Aikman	1995	DAL	116.1	Joe Namath	1968	NYJ	68.9
Chris Chandler	1998	ATL	115.1	Jim Plunkett	1980	OAK	68.2
Earl Morrall	1968	BAL	115.0	Peyton Manning	2006	IND	66.3
Matt Hasselbeck	2005	SEA	114.9	Tony Eason	1985	NWE	65.4
Aaron Rodgers	2010	GNB	112.9	Jim Kelly	1993	BUF	63.0
Fran Tarkenton	1974	MIN	111.8	Jeff Hostetler	1990	NYG	62.4
Eli Manning	2007	NYG	108.2	Tom Brady	2003	NWE	59.7
Stan Humphries	1994	SDG	107.8	Terry Bradshaw	1975	PIT	59.4
David Woodley	1982	MIA	106.6	Len Dawson	1969	KAN	59.2
Terry Bradshaw	1974	PIT	106.6	John Elway	1986	DEN	56.3
Brett Favre	1996	GNB	106.6	Billy Kilmer	1972	WAS	48.5
Terry Bradshaw	1979	PIT	103.2	Vince Ferragamo	1979	RAM	45.8
Kurt Warner	2008	ARI	103.1	Phil Simms	1986	NYG	45.6
Kurt Warner	2001	STL	102.4	Craig Morton	1970	DAL	45.5
Joe Theismann	1982	WAS	102.1	Kerry Collins	2000	NYG	44.8
Bob Griese	1973	MIA	100.6	Jim Kelly	1991	BUF	44.6
Jake Delhomme	2003	CAR	100.2	Bob Griese	1972	MIA	43.1
John Elway	1997	DEN	99.7	Donovan McNabb	2004	PHI	40.4
Kurt Warner	1999	STL	98.4	Joe Kapp	1969	MIN	39.8
Steve Young	1994	SFO	98.0	Doug Williams	1987	WAS	37.7
Len Dawson	1966	KAN	97.7	Tom Brady	2001	NWE	35.2
Ben Roethlisberger	2010	PIT	96.3	Neil O’Donnell	1995	PIT	29.5
Rich Gannon	2002	OAK	94.2	Steve McNair	1999	TEN	24.2
Ben Roethlisberger	2005	PIT	93.2	Ron Jaworski	1980	PHI	21.0
Joe Montana	1984	SFO	93.2	Trent Dilfer	2000	BAL	20.9
Craig Morton	1977	DEN	92.1	Boomer Esiason	1988	CIN	2.9
Roger Staubach	1978	DAL	91.8	Jim Kelly	1992	BUF	2.2
Ben Roethlisberger	2008	PIT	91.2	Drew Bledsoe	1996	NWE	-10.7
Bob Griese	1971	MIA	90.8	Rex Grossman	2006	CHI	-13.1

According to this ranking he’s considered a top 25 QB in NFL history who was playing extremely good football for his team heading into the playoffs. Let’s look at who Eli first ranks below on this list to find out what kind of company he’s dealing with. And keep in mind a lot of these players are up there multiple times in the first 25 slots:

Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Ken Stabler, Peyton Manning, Roger Staubach, Terry Bradshaw, Bart Starr, Joe Montana, Daryle Lamonica, Troy Aikman, Matt Hasselbeck, Chris Chandler, Earl Morrall, and Fran Tarkenton. Obviously hard to argue with…

Oh and one more thing, see that name two spaces above Eli Manning’s name? Yes, Aaron Rodgers — who undoubtedly is playing tremendous football right now and seems to have taken over honors as the league’s best passer next to Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees… he’s having only a slightly better wild card performance than Eli Manning did in 2007. Do with that information what you will, just sayin’… the comparison has been made.

So obviously, Eli is trailing some good company here. But now the question remains – who exactly does he rank above? Frankly there are so many, so let’s just focus on the most interesting names in NFL history shall we:

Terry Bradshaw, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Joe Montana, Len Dawson, Ben Roethlisberger, , Rich Gannon, Steve Young, John Elway, Bob Griese, Joe Theismann, Ron Jaworski, Jim Kelly, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Fran Tarkenton, Jim McMahon, among many others who rank below Eli Manning’s accomplishments in 2007. And of course you have the most obvious comparisons — PHIL SIMMS IN 1986, Jeff Hostetler in 1990, and TOM BRADY IN 2007 all rank below Eli Manning by a wide margin.

Of the players still currently playing in the NFL, Peyton Manning is clearly the best of the lot… although his best season statistically did not yield a Super Bowl title. Still, he clearly is the elite QB among his contemporaries. Matt Hasselbeck and Aaron Rodgers just barely get above Eli’s numbers for the 2007 season… and we’ll see what becomes of Rodgers’ momentum in a couple of weeks.

Ben Roethlisberger obviously has been playing well, and he is a future hall-of-famer regardless of what you think of his personal decisions. And relative to himself, Big Ben is pretty consistent in his effectiveness. According to this measure, Rodgers clearly has the edge heading into Super Bowl Sunday.

I just thought that it was worth noting that the Defense isn’t the ONLY reason the NY Giants won the Super Bowl in 2007, and to nudge everyone out there critical of Eli — he has shown before that he is capable of playing great football. If he did “take a step sideways” this season, if he was just trying to “do too much” with the INTs — we’ll see next year. Hopefully though Eli can get back to making better decisions in the future and get his name appearing on this board at the end of next season for a second time… hopefully with many more appearances to come.

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