NFL Win Totals Released..Giants Getting a lot of Play
By Joe Tufaro
Cantor Gaming made another big splash Wednesday morning when it became the first Nevada bookmaker to release NFL season win totals.
The Packers and Patriots lead the way at 12 wins apiece, with slightly higher juice on Green Bay if you want to bet over. No other team received a total above 10. Of the six teams pegged at 10, the Texans (over -140) and Eagles (over -135) form the top tier.
At the NFL’s bottom end, the Jags, Colts and Browns are listed at 5.5 wins. (See below for a full list.)
This is the earliest Cantor has ever released season win totals.
“We usually release ’em toward the end of June,” Colbert said. “The reason we’re doing it now is just the demand. We have so many tourist properties, people are coming in on the weekends from out of town and asking if we have season wins up. We think the numbers are good to go, so why not put ’em up?”
Two weeks ago Cantor created a buzz by posting spreads on every NFL game through Week 16, offering lines on a whopping 240 games. Most other books are content right now to offer Week 1 lines, at most.
Colbert said the action he took on 16 weeks’ worth of games influenced some win totals, including those of the Giants and Buccaneers.
“We think the Giants are closer to a 9 than a 9.5, but the fact they got bet so heavily in the 16 weeks made us bump them up,” Colbert said. “We made them almost half a game higher than our math tells us.”
Bettors have been fading the Bucs, so Colbert adjusted the juice while keeping their total at 6.
Colbert saw the win totals that BetOnline put out last week but said those did not affect his numbers much.
“People are going to be pretty surprised at some of the big differences,” he said.
*New Orleans is set at 11 (under -125) offshore. Cantor released 10 (over -125).
“Mathematically we have the Saints at just under 10. We convert all 16 games on the moneyline and it came out to 9.9 wins,” Colbert said. “I don’t think they’ll win 12, which they’d have to do for you to win an over 11. I’d be willing to make a gigantic bet they don’t win 12. But that’s what makes this great.”
*Carolina is set at 8.5 (under -155) offshore. Cantor released 7.5.
“Look at Carolina’s schedule. If you think they’re going to win nine games, I’d have to check your [thought process],” Colbert said. “They might have a top-5 toughest schedule.”
Based on its internal numbers, Cantor would have put Carolina at 7. But there was no need to go that low when another book is offering 8.5.
*Denver is set at 10 offshore. Cantor released 9.5 (under -120).
“There’s another team with an absolutely brutal schedule,” Colbert said. “I don’t think Denver will win more than 9, and surely don’t think they’ll win 11. I really think 9 is better than 9.5, but with a 10 out there we don’t have to go that low.”
He believes plenty of bettors will still go under 9.5, despite the frenzy over Peyton Manning’s arrival.
As the release approached, Colbert gave us his thoughts on other teams’ totals.
*Bears 8.5 (over -125); Cowboys 8.5 (over -125); Jets 8.5.
He expects over bets on these three teams.
“At least in our futures bets, there’s a lot of people who are higher on the Bears than we are,” he said. “And to see an 8.5 on the Cowboys looks low to most people. Whether it’s right or not, it looks low to the average guy. The Jets may get bet over too. These are big-time, public teams that have been pretty good [in recent years].”
*Packers 12 (over -125), Patriots 12 (over -120).
These heavyweights are favored in every game.
“People probably are going to bet those top two teams over,” Colbert said. “It’s hard to win 13 games in the NFL, I can assure you of that. We’ll be happy to take those bets.”
Don’t look for Cantor’s win totals to move much, only the juice.
“Very rarely do we move even a half-game, but it does happen,” Colbert said, recalling last year’s move of the Bengals from 7 to 6.5 (under -180), a move he equated to a full game. “Putting it out first, there’s more of a chance. But it takes quite a bit of money to move a season win total off a number.
“For us to go from 9.5 to 10 on Denver, for example, now you’re telling me Denver has to win 11 — that’s a significant move,” he continued. “Usually we move it 10 cents on a limit bet. If we respect the player, maybe we move it a little more. Maybe not at all.”
MGM Mirage plans to release its win totals later this week, in time for the holiday weekend tourists.
Here’s the complete list of Cantor’s season win totals:
Green Bay Packers
Over 12 wins -125
Under 12 wins -105
New England Patriots
Over 12 wins -120
Under 12 wins -110
Houston Texans
Over 10 wins -140
Under 10 wins +110
Philadelphia Eagles
Over 10 wins -135
Under 10 wins +105
New Orleans Saints
Over 10 wins -125
Under 10 wins -105
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over 10 wins -125
Under 10 wins -105
Baltimore Ravens
Over 10 wins -110
Under 10 wins -120
San Francisco 49ers
Over 10 wins +105
Under 10 wins -135
Denver Broncos
Over 9.5 wins -110
Under 9.5 wins -120
New York Giants (We have the Giants at 10 wins)
Over 9.5 wins -110
Under 9.5 wins -120
Detroit Lions
Over 9.5 wins +105
Under 9.5 wins -135
San Diego Chargers
Over 9 wins -130
Under 9 wins Even
Atlanta Falcons
Over 9 wins +105
Under 9 wins -135
Chicago Bears
Over 8.5 wins -135
Under 8.5 wins +105
Dallas Cowboys
Over 8.5 wins -125
Under 8.5 wins -105
New York Jets
Over 8.5 wins -115
Under 8.5 wins -115
Kansas City Chiefs
Over 8 wins -120
Under 8 wins -110
Cincinnati Bengals
Over 7.5 wins -130
Under 7.5 wins Even
Carolina Panthers
Over 7.5 wins -115
Under 7.5 wins -115
Miami Dolphins
Over 7.5 wins -110
Under 7.5 wins -120
Tennessee Titans
Over 7 wins -130
Under 7 wins Even
Buffalo Bills
Over 7 wins -110
Under 7 wins -120
Seattle Seahawks
Over 7 wins -110
Under 7 wins -120
Oakland Raiders
Over 7 wins -110
Under 7 wins -120
Arizona Cardinals
Over 7 wins -110
Under 7 wins -120
Washington Redskins
Over 6.5 wins Even
Under 6.5 wins -130
St. Louis Rams
Over 6 wins -110
Under 6 wins -120
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over 6 wins -110
Under 6 wins -120
Minnesota Vikings
Over 6 wins Even
Under 6 wins -130
Cleveland Browns
Over 5.5 wins Even
Under 5.5 wins -130
Indianapolis Colts
Over 5.5 wins +105
Under 5.5 wins -135
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 5.5 wins +105
Under 5.5 wins -135