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NFL Expert Picks Week 12: Parts One & Two

By Jeff Ellis

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Part One:

12-2 last week and still in third place against the ESPN experts. This week there are some very challenging picks.

Texans @ Lions I’ll take the Texans. The Texans are an all-around solid team and are 9-1 this season. The Lions could be a really good team if they could be more consistent.

Redskins @ Cowboys I like the Redskins. The Cowboys defense will not be able to contain the Redskins offense and I don’t think the Cowboys offense can keep up with the Redskins.

Patriots @ Jets Patriots will win. The Patriots offense should crush the underachieving Jets.

Part Two:

Vikings @ Bears Bears win. The Bears are 4-1 at home and the Vikings are 1-3 on the road.  The Bears are +12 turnovers and the Vikings are -4 turnovers. In addition, Chicago is giving up just 17 points per game.

Raiders @ Bengals I like the Bengals. They are not a great team but they are 5-5 and have won two in a row.  Things are starting to click on both the offense and defense for the Bengals. In these last two wins, the Bengals beat the Giants by 18 points and the Chiefs by 22 points. The Raiders are 3-7, lost 3 in a row, and are 1-4 on the road.

Steelers @ Browns The Steelers should win this game. Their defense is giving up just 259 total yards per game and 19 points per game. QB Ben Roethlisberger is listed as doubtful to play which leaves them in the capable hands of 15-year-veteran Charlie Batch. The Browns offense is scoring just 19 points per game so I can’t see them moving the ball very well against the Steelers.

Bills @ Colts I like the Colts to win at home where they are 4-1. The Bills are 2-4 on the road. The Colts have a balanced offense that generates 393 total yards per game, fifth in the NFL. The Bills have a good rushing offense that generates 141 yards per game but the Bills defense is giving up 30 points per game. This  is a really bad matchup for the Bills defense. In the end, like many games, this game could be determined by turnovers. The Bills are -7 turnovers and the Colts are -13. This shows the turnovers are real big problem for both teams and the team that can execute well without any turnovers should win this game.

Broncos @ Chiefs Broncos win. Broncos are 7-3 and Chiefs are 1-9.

Seahawks @ Dolphins I like the Seahawks. Neither team has an impressive offense. The problem for the Dolphins is that Seattle’s defense is giving up just 297 total yards per game, third in the NFL, and 16 points per game, first in the NFL. Another advantage for the Seahawks is they are +1 turnovers and Dolphins are -9.

Falcons @ Buccaneers I like the Falcons. The Buccaneers are real hot right now and have won five of their last six and scored 34 points per game over that period. But that won’t be enough to win because Atlanta has given up just 20 points per game over the last 6 games. The Buccaneers will lose because they are giving up 313 passing yards per game, worst in NFL, and Atlanta is generating 293 passing yards per game, fourth in NFL.

Titans @ Jaguars I like the Jaguars. Chad Henne is now the starting QB for Jacksonville which means they are now cleared to begin scoring points. Last week they scored 37 points against the Houston defense which is ranked fifth with an average of 19.2 points allowed per game. The Titans’ are inconsistent

Ravens @ Chargers I like the Ravens. They are better on offense and defense than the Chargers. They are also +12 turnovers and the Chargers are -3 turnovers.

Niners @ Saints I’m going with the Saints. The Saints have won five of their last six games and are 3-0 at home over that same time period. During those last six games the Saints scored 30 points per game and gave up 24 points per game. The Niners are starting their rookie QB Colin Kaepernick. He is a very mobile QB but that may not help the Niners because the Saints kept the ultra-mobile QB Michael Vick and the Eagles to just 13 points in week 9. The Niners defense is allowing just 13.4 points per game but the powerful Saints offense can still put up enough points to win. The key for the Saints will be disrupting Kaepernick and slowing down the Niners run game which is gaining 165.3 yards per game.

Cardinals @ Rams Cardinals will win because they are giving up just 20 points per game compared to the Rams 24 points per game and the Cardinals will have RB Beanie Wells back. In 2011, Wells rushed for 1,047 yds and 10 TDs in 14 games.

Packers @ Giants I like the Giants. Statistically, these teams are very evenly matched with the Giants offense a touch better than the Green Bay offense and the Green Bay defense a touch better than the Giants Defense.  The Giants have a small advantage in turnovers with +11 versus the Packers’ +7. I think the Giants have the edge in the game because:

  1. they are returning from a bye week
  2. they are playing at home
  3. last week, the Packers scored only 24 points against the Lions defense which is one of the worst ten defenses in the NFL
  4. the Packers are 7-3 but 3-2 against good defenses
  5. the Packers’ star LB Clay Matthews is out
  6. the Giants will be without WR Domenik Hixon but will most likely see the return of LB Keith Rivers and S Kenny Phillips

Panthers @ Eagles Panthers will win. The Eagles 3-7 have lost 6 in a row and seem to have given up. Starting QB Michael Vick is out and will be replaced by rookie Nick Foles. Foles is not ready for the NFL. At 2-8, the Panthers don’t look like a team with much spark either. Panthers are -3 turnovers and the Eagles are -14 and the turnovers will probably be the difference in this game.

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