Expert Picks Week 11: Titans vs. Colts TNF

Indianapolis -3 @ Tennessee — O/U 42

Both teams are coming off embarrassing defeats as substantial favorites: the Colts lost by 30 on their home field as a 7.5-point choice, and the Titans allowed the putrid Jags into the “oh so slippery” win column as an 11.5-point home favorite. It’s safe to assume both squads will take the field with an extreme sense of urgency on a short week. Tennessee sits two games behind Indy in the AFC South race.

The Colts need to find consistency with their rushing attack. Yes, they fell behind two scores in the blink of an eye last week, but ONE combined yard between Trent Richardson and Donald Brown is not going to cut it. Richardson has been running in quick sand all year long. While the Titans are an athletic defensive group, they’re also undersized and can be pushed back by a ground and pound style. Their secondary is excellent, and the Colts are short on imposing weapons on the outside to create windows for Andrew Luck.

Indianapolis has been opportunistic defensively, but they don’t hang their hat on any particular facet or make offenses one-dimensional. If the Titans display patience, they should be able to move the ball by milking Chris Johnson and utilizing the short passing game. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a capable backup (albeit mistake prone) and he’s quickly developed a strong rapport with wide receiver Kendall Wright. An explosive playmaker after the catch, Wright is always dangerous in the WR-screen game. The Colts could not handle Tavon Austin in space.

Prediction: 23-15 Tennessee