Football Outsiders posted an article about “adjusted games lost” and the New York Giants have led the league in that category for the past three seasons. The adjusted games lost (AGL) metric was determined by how much teams were affected by injuries to starters, replacement starters, and important situational reserves and injured players who do take the field are usually playing with reduced ability (doubtful, questionable or probable). According to the post, the Giants have ranked 22nd or worse in AGL in six straight seasons now. In that span, the Giants have gone 47-49.
Every season, it seems the long list of injured players on the Giants roster always comes back to hurt the team’s chances of making the playoffs. How would the G-Men have done if they were closer to the league average in AGL?
In 2015, they most likely would have gone 9-7 and would’ve won the NFC East. The list of starters and replacements sidelined by serious injury includes Jon Beason, Will Beatty, Nat Berhe, Victor Cruz, Larry Donnell, Daniel Fells, Josh Gordy, Johnathan Hankins, Bennett Jackson, Geoff Schwartz, Owamagbe Odighizuwa, and Mykkele Thompson. The Giants had 33 players listed as “Questionable” on their injury reports, which ranked 19th fewest in the league. The Atlanta Falcons had five while the Chicago Bears had 97! Of those 33 Giants who were questionable, 19 played, which placed them 13th lowest. The Pittsburgh Steelers had smallest percentage (30.77%) and the Cleveland Browns had the highest (84.75%).
With the First Pick
In 2014, they probably would have gone 8-8 and still missed the playoffs. The Giants ranked first in the league in most players on injured reserve as Prince Amukamara, Jon Beason, Victor Cruz, Trindon Holliday, Jerrel Jernigan, Peyton Hillis, Mario Manningham, Trumaine McBride, Geoff Schwartz, Cooper Taylor, Walter Thurmond, and David Wilson missed significant playing time.
In 2013, they could’ve gone 9-7 and might have won the NFC East if one of the adjusted games lost was the Week 5 contest against the Eagles at home when they fell apart in the second half. This squad lost David Wilson, Chris Snee, Aaron Ross, Shaun Rogers, Andre Brown, Stevie Brown, Brandon Jacobs, Henry Hynoski, and Ramses Barden to the IR.
Scott Kacsmar From Football Outsiders:
"“Not only have these been league-leading totals, but they are the three-highest totals in our database going back to 2000. No other team had led in back-to-back years since 2000."
Big (Black and) Blue also had the 6th and 7th fewest players listed as “probable” over the past two seasons.
Fewest players listed as probable, 2014-15 pic.twitter.com/d7aUEOjJpH
— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) March 1, 2016
Seven of the top 12 teams in least amount of games lost due to injury made the playoffs. Two other playoff teams were above the league average. Three playoffs teams were below the league average (Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, Washington Redskins). The Redskins actually were second to the Giants in adjusted games lost. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles were 5th and 6th respectively in least adjusted games lost, however, the metric doesn’t take into consideration just how important Tony Romo was to Dallas.
Say what you will about Chip Kelly, but his teams weren’t losing games because of injury. In a weak NFC East, the Giants can’t afford to be weak. A couple more healthy bodies here and there and they could have two more divisional crowns on their resume. If the 2007 and 2011 seasons were any indication, a poor regular season record doesn’t mean a poor postseason. It’s possible the Giants could have repeated history in 2015 had they not been so hampered. Hopefully, a new infusion of young and/or healthy talent along with the hiring of new strength and conditioning coach Aaron Wellman and performance manager Joe Danos will convert AGL into Ws.