New York Giants: Gauging Beckham’s longevity

The New York Giants seem stuck in a stare down with their best player, but it may be a battle that Odell Beckham ultimately loses.

Right now, the mercurial receiver has the tiger by its tail, but that won’t always be the case. For as much talent as Beckham possesses, he cannot run away from the league’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA) and father time.

One name who stood the test of time at the wide receiver position remains the great Jerry Rice. Taking a look at the San Francisco 49ers great gives us insight into what would be a dream scenario. Rice played for 20 years spanning across two centuries. In his final season (2004), Rice actually played in 17 regular season games. In his Hall of Fame career, Rice only played in less than 16 games twice. A knee injury in 1997, ended his season after only two games. Rice played in 16 games for 18 of his 20 NFL seasons.

In four NFL seasons, Beckham has played in all 16 games one time (2016). It should be noted that his 2015 season was cut short by his one-game suspension. Not that a suspension can’t or won’t happen again.

Sports Illustrated wrote about the length of professional football careers, and here’s what they found:

"“The average NFL career has shortened in length by about two and a half years, according to the Wall Street Journal’s analysis of data from 2008 to 2014.”"

Given scientific studies on head trauma, it would appear that more players are retiring early. Maybe that’s Beckham’s end game. It’s certainly within his prerogative. Taken objectively though, New York Giants brass has to consider how many top flight years that Beckham has left. He already has suffered one major injury, and with a five-year contract, how many quality starts will the team get?

New York Giants

Everyone would hope that Beckham gets 80 quality starts over five seasons, but that’s a long shot. Odds are that he gets less than that, so the question becomes how many?

Collective Bargaining Agreement

Maybe fans get this and maybe they do not. But what’s the incentive for the New York Giants to get Beckham immediately signed to an above-market deal? Beckham has stated not only does he want to be the highest paid receiver, he wants $20 million +.

According to Pro Football Talk, receiver Jarvis Landry (former Beckham LSU teammate) got franchise tagged this offseason. The wide receiver tag, per PFT, was worth $15.982 million. Basically, the Miami Dolphins tagged Landry in order to maintain an asset. They then traded him to the Cleveland Browns.

Say the franchise tag rises $1 million in 2019, unlikely, but here’s the point. Why pay Beckham $3 million above the franchise tag?

Let’s look at the Nate Solder situation. The Beckham supporters would say that the G-Men gave a 4-year, $62 million deal with a former New England Patriots player, why not our boy?

Unfortunately, you’re forgetting a key piece. Solder signed a bridge deal (2-years, $20 million) when he could have been tagged or become an unrestricted free agent. It was almost all guaranteed money, so in essence for the player, it worked like a franchise tag. For the team, it gave the Pats, a below-market deal and more salary cap flexibility.

Solder’s deal became a win-win for the team and him, but it also requires a larger commitment to the franchise.

Walk the Line

After giving the team a financial break, and winning a Super Bowl title in year one of the deal, Solder then left for the highest bidder. But don’t count on Beckham to sign a reasonable bridge deal.

Worst case scenario for the New York Giants, they have Beckham locked in for 2018 under his rookie contract. He plays under that deal, and then the team can franchise tag him in 2019. If that works out, they can franchise tag him again. Or the parties can come together on an extension.

The problem with the franchise tag is that it eliminates salary cap flexibility for teams. These are all cash deals that 100 percent count against the cap in the same season. That’s why the Giants would like to work out a reasonable extension with Beckham.

It’s takes two to tango, and we haven’t seen any indication from Beckham that he’s willing to find a middle ground.