New York Giants: Madden 19 predicts Odell Beckham Jr. breakout vs. Panthers
It’s that time of the week again for our New York Giants Madden 19 simulation and wouldn’t you know it, EA Sports is a perfect 4-0 in predictions for the 2018 season.
Week 4 was disappointing as the New York Giants fell to the New Orleans Saints at home by a score of 33-18 to bring their record to 1-3. Things won’t get easier for the G-Men this weekend when they travel to Charlotte, NC, to take on the 2-1 Carolina Panthers for another showdown with the NFC South.
The last time these two teams faced off was in Week 15 of 2015 when Odell Beckham Jr. and former Panther Josh Norman infamously engaged in a WWE match fit for pay-per-view television.
Both players combined for six penalties including five unnecessary roughness calls in what was one of the ugliest battles between a wide receiver and cornerback in recent memory.
Though Beckham would post a solid 6-76-1 line in that game, his actions would lead to a suspension the following week and a negative storyline that has hurt his reputation to this day.
Fast forward to 2018, and OBJ is now the highest paid receiver in NFL history after signing a five-year, $90 million extension. He may be fourth in the league in receptions with 31 through four games, but he ranks 16th in yards (331) and is still held without a touchdown. He hasn’t found paydirt since moments before his season-ending ankle injury in 2017’s Week 5 game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Panthers will likely stick rookie cornerback Donte Jackson on Beckham Sunday. Jackson has played well thus far, and Carolina’s secondary held Atlanta Falcons star receiver Julio Jones to a scoreless five catches for 64 yards in Week 2. Still, this a plus matchup for OBJ to exploit.
It’s just a matter of whether head coach Pat Shurmur and Eli Manning are willing to take more shots down the field.
Passing stats
- Eli Manning – 25/45, 295 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT, 97.9 QBR
- Cam Newton – 18/42, 214 yards, 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 35.3 QBR
Manning sports the second-highest completion percentage in the NFL at 74.2 just behind Drew Brees (75.8). The major difference between the two is that Brees is averaging a full yard more per passing attempt than Manning, who sits at an even seven yards per throw.
The G-Men’s lack of a competent third wide receiver, the injury to tight end Evan Engram, a leaky right side of the offensive line, conservative play-calling by Shurmur, and Manning’s over-eagerness to check down to running back Saquon Barkley are all contributing factors to the offense’s inability to produce points.
Shurmur made it clear that the team isn’t hesitating to go vertical, but he’ll have to prove it in Week 5 as the Panthers are guaranteed to take a page out of their division rival’s book and play soft zone coverage.
Giants coach Pat Shurmur to the team’s website: “That’s a false narrative that we weren’t trying to throw the ball down the field. That’s a false narrative, and if for some reason, they legislate against it, we have to check the ball down, keep the chains moving.”
— Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano) October 5, 2018
Carolina’s pass defense ranks 12th in the NFL surrendering just 246.7 yards through the air per game, so it will be a tougher challenge for the Giants this week.
Madden predicts Cam Newton to have a meltdown Sunday, which is possible with corner Eli Apple practicing this week and looking to make his return. Linebacker Josh Mauro is done serving his suspension, and he’ll have to pick up the slack for an injured Olivier Vernon, who has no timetable for return.
With the defense nearing full strength, Manning should see positive field position all game.
Rushing stats
New York Giants:
- Saquon Barkley – 18 carries, 61 yards, 1 TD
- Elijhaa Penny – 7 carries, 18 yards
Carolina Panthers:
- Christian McCaffrey – 14 carries, 42 yards
- C.J. Anderson – 5 carries, 18 yards
Barkley hasn’t rushed for over 100 yards since Week 1’s loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he has eclipsed 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his first four games.
It’s clear that he is the real deal and is the focal point of the New York Giants offense. Offensive coordinator Mike Shula has been careful not to overwork Barkley, and the rookie has not rushed the ball more than 20 times in a game…yet.
That could change soon after Wayne Gallman was sent to the basement immediately following his costly fumble in the second quarter last week. Elijhaa Penny is a much better blocker in the run and pass game than Gallman, which should lead to a larger percentage of playing time.
Make no mistake, though, this is Barkley’s backfield. He may not be predicted to explode on the ground against Carolina’s 19th ranked rush defense, but he is still projected to find the end zone for the third consecutive week.
Receiving stats
New York Giants:
- Odell Beckham Jr. – 7 rec., 106 yards, 2 TDs
- Sterling Shepard – 6 rec., 50 yards, 1 TD
- Rhett Ellison – 5 rec., 50 yards
- Cody Latimer – 3 rec., 39 yards
- Russell Shepard – 2 rec., 20 yards
- Saquon Barkley – 1 rec., 21 yards
Carolina Panthers
- Torrey Smith– 5 rec., 48 yards
- Ian Thomas – 5 rec., 55 yards
- Devin Funchess – 4 rec., 47 yards, 1 TD
- D.J. Moore – 2 rec., 53 yards, 1 TD
- Christian McCaffrey – 2 rec., 11 yards
This is the performance we have been waiting for from Beckham.
It’s unlikely Engram will play this weekend, which puts Rhett Ellison in line to start at tight end for the second consecutive game. Perhaps the most overlooked and underrated return to the offense this week is Cody Latimer.
He sat out last week’s game with a knee injury but is poised to return in Week 5.
Latimer has only three receptions on five targets for an ineffective 56 yards, but he is a much better option than Russell Shepard, who could only muster nine yards on three receptions against the Saints.
With Latimer back in the lineup and Sterling Shepard playing great football, the Giants can spread the field for Manning. OBJ will still see plenty of double coverage and safeties shaded to his side, but with the Giants rolling out a more balanced receiving corp this week, they should find more success in the passing game.
Madden has Beckham living up to that $90 million price tag, finding the end zone twice. Breathe a sigh of relief, Giants fans.
Total team stats
New York Giants:
- Total offense: 373 yards
- Total team: 426 yards
- Rushing: 78 yards
- Passing: 295 yards
- Turnovers: 0
- Penalties: 2-20
- Time of Possession: 13:32*
Carolina Panthers:
- Total offense: 274 yards
- Total team: 287 yards
- Rushing: 60 yards
- Passing: 214 yards
- Turnovers: 4
- Penalties: 5-45
- Time of Possession: 10:28*
(*Madden 19 simulation runs six-minute quarters for the most realistic stat outputs)
It’s never a good thing when a team loses the time of possession battle, and the New York Giants found themselves in a situation with the Saints last weekend where they couldn’t keep their offense on the field.
In the first half alone, the G-Men consistently gifted New Orleans with a short field, and Drew Brees easily marched his unit into the red zone four times. Big Blue’s defense admirably forced four field goals before inevitably breaking late in the game.
The Giants have to get their playmakers involved down the field and checkdowns to Barkley all game won’t get it done. The spotlight is on Manning and Beckham to establish a connection that we as fans haven’t seen in nearly a full calendar year. The pressure is on.
More Odell Beckham to ESPN: "How come we can’t throw the ball for more than 20 yards? How come we don’t attempt or try to throw the ball for more than 20 yards? Those are questions that we have to figure out." https://t.co/DOI34wOuqj
— Ralph Vacchiano (@RalphVacchiano) October 5, 2018
Expect the Panthers to play soft zone coverage and invite the Giants to work underneath. Shurmur will have to find ways to exploit open areas in the opposition’s defense while Manning needs to stay patient and keep his eyes downfield.
Football is a game won at the line of scrimmage, and if the Giants offensive line can continue to improve and keep Manning upright, Beckham and the rest of the receiving corp should find room to roam.
Final
The second quarter of the season is officially underway and it feels as if it’s getting late early for New York.
It’s a season of trial and error with a new coaching staff and front office, but if not careful, the organization will find itself in a position akin to 2017. The media hailstorm is one bad game away from raining down at full force and frustration from players has already begun to show.
Everyone is aware of the desperation the Giants face—even EA sports. The G-men are predicted to head into Bank of America Stadium and do something they haven’t in nearly three years: light up the scoreboard.
Next. New York Giants lack of competent 3rd receiver dooms Eli Manning. dark
The team falls behind 7-0 at first but then quickly rebounds for 21 unanswered points. Manning gives fans a reason to bELIeve again, and Beckham breaks out two touchdown dances that he has had stored away for the last 364 days.
Oh, and the G-Men finally score 30 points in a game. Hallelujah.
New York Giants 31, Carolina Panthers 17