New York Giants dilemma: Compete this year or punt for the future?

Heading into week seven of the regular season, the New York Giants currently sit one game out of first place in the NFC East Division with a record of 2-4. With the trade deadline fast approaching, the Giants must decide if they are contenders or pretenders.

With over a third of the season completed, the New York Giants find themselves within one game of being atop the NFC East division. As a result, General Manager Dave Gettleman and the Big Blue brass must decide if they feel that their team is built to contend this year, or better served continuing to build for the future.

Making the case that the Giants are contenders this year:

Sure the Giants are currently two games under .500, but their record fails to tell the entire story. The first two losses came with Eli Manning at the helm, before the Giants decided that they would move to their quarterback of the future, Daniel Jones. In the two games following that decision, Jones would reward Giants management for their faith, by leading the Giants to two wins. The two wins came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Redskins. While the Redskins are basement dwellers of the NFL, the Buccaneers followed their loss to the Giants by defeating last year’s NFC Champions, the Los Angeles Rams, 55-40, showing that they have the talent to allow them to compete with the upper echelon of the NFL.

After winning the first two games that Daniel Jones started, the Giants would lose their next two matchups, falling to the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots, two teams considered legitimate contenders, with two of the best defenses in the league. Despite losing their past two games, there remains optimism surrounding the Giants, as they remained very competitive against both teams, despite lacking a plethora of players due to injury.

The Giants lacked any semblance of a running game against both the Vikings and Patriots due to a high ankle sprain to Saquon Barkley and a concussion sustained by Wayne Gallman, in the first series of the game against the Vikings. If lacking a run game wasn’t a daunting enough challenge, the Giants came into the game against the Vikings without four of their linebackers, instead having to play practice squad players heavy minutes, resulting in the defense getting gashed by the Minnesota offense. To add insult to injury (or injury to injury in this case), the Giants would also lose Sterling Shepard to a concussion and Evan Engram to a knee injury against the Vikings.

After losing a number of critical players to injury, as well as the game to Minnesota 28-10, the Giants were forced to play the undefeated New England Patriots in the Thursday night game on short rest. As a result, they were again without Barkley and Gallman.

They also were lacking Shepard and Engram, leaving Jones with limited offensive weapons against the best defense in football. Despite all of the injuries, having to play in a shortened week, on the road and against the best team in football, the Giants would hang tough against the Patriots. They would be a score at the half to New England 21-14 and would remain within one score of the Patriots until only 8:33 remained in the game. While New England would go on to win by a final of 35-14, the game was much closer than the score indicates.

The Giants are heading into week seven with a matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who are 2-3-1 and in a rebuild of their own. They are expected to get Saquon Barkley, Wayne Gallman and Evan Engram back from injury this week. There is an outside chance that even Sterling Shepard returns, as he has been practicing with the team. Why is this important?

It is important because the Giants have yet to play a single snap this year with the group of Jones, Barkley, Golden Tate III, Engram, Shepard and Darius Slayton all on the field. In fact, they have not played an entire half this year without at least two of the aforementioned players being out. Given what we have seen from Jones this year without most of his offensive weapons, the thought of this incredibly talented group on the field together is absolutely tantalizing.

In addition to getting key offensive players healthy, the defense is also getting healthier. Alec Ogletree returned last week after missing a couple of games due to injury. He would immediately have his impact felt, recording 12 tackles, a sack and two quarterback hits. In addition, fellow linebacker, Lorenzo Carter would also return from injury, compiling three tackles and a sack of his own against the Patriots.

The improving health of the defense coincides with the improvement in performance. Dexter Lawrence is developing into a force alongside line mates BJ Hill and Dalvin Tomlinson. Deandre Baker is making strides in his coverage skills at cornerback. Oshane Ximines and Lorenzo Carter are impacting the game from the linebacker position. Markus Golden has been as dominant as anyone in the pass rush, with five sacks and a fumble recovery for a touchdown through five games this year. In addition, the Giants hope to get further depth in the secondary, as last year’s supplemental pick, Sam Beal was just activated off the injured reserve after missing the start of the season with a hamstring injury. It stands to reason that the Giants defense will get stronger as the season progresses and the young core gains more experience and familiarity in James Bettcher’s defensive scheme.

In addition to the team getting healthy and seeing a progression of skills, the Giants also benefit from having some very winnable games against weaker opponents. The only two teams left on the Giants schedule who currently have winning records are the 3-2 Chicago Bears and the 5-1 Green Bay Packers. The Giants have games remaining against the Cardinals, Lions, Jets, Dolphins and Redskins, who have managed just six wins total between them, four of which came from the Lions and Cardinals (who tied earlier this year). The division rival Eagles and Cowboys both currently have 3-3 records. It is very plausible that the Giants could win eight or nine games this year and potentially sneak into the playoffs.

Making a case for the future:

Despite having what appears to be a fairly easy schedule for the remainder of the season, if Dave Gettleman is doing an honest assessment of his team, he realizes that while the Giants could potentially manage to get into the playoffs, they are likely lacking the depth of a true contender. After all, they shed a lot of their veteran players beginning before the trade deadline last season and continuing into the offseason this year.

They did so, as they made the decision to tear down the roster and rebuild. While the Giants appear to have nailed their past two drafts and have done well solidifying their team with the trades that they have made, they are likely still at least a year away from being a true contender.

It is more likely that the Cowboys and Eagles will win the division and/or a Wild Card playoff spot over the Giants. Therefore, it would likely be prudent for Dave Gettleman to shop his veteran pieces in an effort to stockpile additional draft capital to help add depth to the young core of talent they currently have, as well as to shed additional salary going into next season, so that they can add free agent pieces that would supplement their current roster.

Currently the Giants have twelv picks in the upcoming 2020 draft, after they were awarded four compensatory picks for players from their roster last year signing with other teams before this season. They could look to add to that total by shopping players such as Eli Manning, Janoris Jenkins, Rhett Ellison, Alec Ogletree, Golden Tate III, Antoine Bethea and anyone else that they feel they get a solid return of draft picks for. Given the success rate that Gettleman and company have had with the draft so far, this would likely put them in much better position heading into next season, when they are more likely true contenders.

As it currently stands, the Giants are projected to have $65 million next year for free agent signings. Adding draft capital while increasing that cap number is a win-win for a team that is still in its first year of a rebuild and that has the looks of a team that could contend perennially in the near future. It is unlikely that any of the veteran players would net more than a third round pick, but given the performance so far by 2018 and 2019 third rounders Lorenzo Carter, BJ Hill and Oshane Ximines, it seems like a no-brainer.

If the Giants decide to move a number of their veteran players, in favor of draft capital and salary cap space, there is a good chance that it could cost them a couple of wins this season. However, if the team is looking towards the future, that is actually a positive, as it gives them better draft position next year. In addition, it clears the way for younger talent to play meaningful downs and gain much needed experience, something that will benefit the Giants moving forward.

What I would do if I were Dave Gettleman and the Giants:

While I am excited for what the future holds for the Giants, I don’t think this team has enough to legitimately contend for a Super Bowl Championship this year. I feel that they aren’t deep enough to sustain the rigors of what the next ten games hold for them. I feel like this team is a year away from being a really dangerous team. Therefore, I would be shopping veteran players in an effort to continue to stockpile draft capital and free up salary cap space.

Potentially adding fifteen additional players via the draft, especially given the success that Gettleman has had so far, coupled with having perhaps upwards of $70-80 million in cap space  (with cutting a few players) to sign veteran players to shore up any major holes on the roster seems too good to pass up on. This upcoming draft is expected to be flush with talent, especially at many of the positions that the Giants are most in need of. Being patient with the process and cognizant of the future would likely prove to be the wisest choice for the Giants this year. Regardless of what route they ultimately choose, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic for what the future holds for the Giants.