NY Giants’ history says Dalvin Tomlinson will be replaced

Who stays? Who goes? History gives us some clues.

It’s never easy making difficult decisions with impending free agents. It’s even more difficult when your top two free agents are both at the same position and it’s one of your more proven position units.

This is the conundrum the New York Giants are facing.

Does New York try to retain both and pass on external free agents? Do they stick with the homegrown Tomlinson who’s been nothing but a model teammate and person all throughout his four-year career? Or, does Dave Gettleman save face on the trade he made himself for Leo Williams and extend him?

The reality is, it’s a very difficult situation for the Giants to figure out right now. Williams will undoubtedly be more expensive, but that’s the premium price you get for a better, more accomplished player who also is more pass-rush-oriented. Tomlinson is a very smart guy who once turned down Yale to play in the SEC: He knows his worth and value to teams. Tomlinson will likely hit free agency which he deserves to at least explore. He deserves the opportunity to hit the open market and boost his worth for his next deal.

The Giants should do whatever it takes to avoid letting Leonard Williams hit the free agent market. He will likely have many suitors as he was an elite interior pass rusher this season. His price tag hovering around $20 million and many teams will entice Williams with money, better teams, and a new start.

Both Tomlinson and Williams have made it clear they both want to be in New York for good. Neither wants to leave. It won’t be that simple. The two players have said that they’re not looking for money in free agency. Tomlinson implied he would consider a hometown discount to stay with the Giants while Leonard Williams swore that for him it’s about respect, not the money.

Ultimately, the Giants need to make this key decision over the next month or so. It’s highly unlikely both players stay with NY. Unless Dalvin Tomlinson gives the NY Giants a huge discount or takes a cheaper, short-term deal, it seems unlikely he will remain with the organization.

My prediction is that the team opts to go with Leonard Williams and they will offer Dalvin Tomlinson a deal he will respectfully decline. I expect Williams’ contract to be in the neighborhood of 2-3 years for around $17-$19 million per season. Young, proven defensive tackles who can sack the quarterback and is in their prime rarely hit the open market. That seems reasonable for the former 5th overall pick who looks to prove he still has more in the tank and can keep building upon his impressive 2020 season.

I expect Tomlinson to see a nice payday around $10-$12 million. He is a stout player who can lock down the interior of any defense. He is versatile and can likely slot in and play any position on a 3-4 defensive line and either gap on a 4-3 defense.

It just doesn’t seem in the cards for the team to keep both players. They have too many pressing needs at too many other positions with greater importance. When it comes down to it, the Giants should keep the better player in Leonard Williams.

The Giants have attacked the unit many times since Tomlinson’s arrival in 2017. Between drafting B.J. Hill in the 3rd round of the 2018 draft, drafting Dexter Lawrence #19th overall in 2019, and then trading midseason for Leo Williams, and that tells me that the team is more invested in Leonard Williams than they are in Dalvin Tomlinson. Williams’ production and impact on the line would be irreplaceable this season if he left. If Dalvin walks, Patrick Graham can deploy Hill, Lawrence, and another free agent or draft pick next to Williams to still have a good group of defensive linemen.

As history has shown us, the Giants have long drafted and replaced their defensive tackles. Not one drafted defensive tackle has been designed or gotten a second contract with the New York Giants. The team has a defensive tackle who flashed as a rookie in B.J. Hill. His time waiting in the wings may pay off if he can replace Tomlinson’s production. With Williams, Dexter Lawrence, and Hill, that’s still a nice trio of young tackles who all have different skills and abilities that complement each other well. They will still add another defensive tackle too through the draft or through free agency with a grizzled veteran (see Austin Johnson).

It’s a complicated issue the Giants need to navigate. They can’t afford to get it wrong and they need to make a sound decision with handling both free agents. In the end, they will likely be able to only keep one and Williams should be the player to stay in New York.