Confidence is high for the Giants heading into their Wild Card game against the Vikings. A 27-24 loss in Minnesota a few weeks ago was almost more of a good thing than a bad, as the G-Men proved they’re more than capable of hanging with the 13-4 Vikings. In fact, I’d argue they should have won that game.
So yeah, I’m betting New York to pull off the upset.
Beyond a moneyline bet, I’m also considering a fun parlay to spice things up. I’ll only put a small wager on this bet, but if it hits we win at +2500 odds. And what’s the fun of betting if there isn’t a potential big payout on the line?
Giants-Vikings Parlay Picks
- Under 48.5 points
- Darius Slayton anytime TD scorer
- Saquon Barkley anytime TD scorer
On FanDuel, this would payout over +2500 odds currently and this is likely how it would have to play out based on my belief the Giants win. Here’s why I like each leg.
Under 48.5 points
This is the highest total of Wild Card weekend and, while the Giants-Vikings game three weeks ago saw 51 points scored, historically the UNDER hits a lot in the first round of the playoffs. Since 2004, the under is 50-30 in Wild Card games for a 62.5% hit rate.
The Giants’ defense has also played better recently, giving up 4.8 yards per play over their last three games versus 5.6 over the course of the season. New York’s defense allows the fifth-lowest red-zone TD percentage in the NFL (49.2%) and their offense rushes for the fifth-most yards per attempt. This all signals to me a low-scoring game in a playoff round known for just that.
Darius Slayton anytime TD scorer
The Vikings’ pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL. They gave up 13 TD passes to wide receivers during the regular season, 7.3 yards per pass attempt, and 11.1 yards per completion overall. That plays into Slayton’s strength.
Against Minnesota three weeks ago, Slayton averaged 19.8 yards per catch, turning four catches into 79 yards. He’s only caught two TDs this season, but his ability to break a big play intrigues me against a defense that allows big plays to wide receivers.
It’s a bit of a longshot, but that’s how you get bigger odds in a parlay.
Saquon Barkley anytime TD scorer
A more standard pick, Barkley had a rushing TD against the Vikings earlier this season. But more than just recent history, Minnesota’s defense wasn’t good (you see a trend here) against the run this season, giving up 4.5 yards per rush. That’s actually been even worse over their last three, increasing to 5.4 yards per rush. Saquon averaged 6.0 yards per rush against Minnesota.
This gives me more confidence in the under and makes me feel like Saquon scoring is inevitable. Plus, if the Giants are going to win this thing, Saquon will play a major role in that happening.