Before the start of the season, the Los Angeles Rams were untouchable. The New York Giants might as well have penciled in a loss in their Week 2 matchup. L.A.'s collection of All-Pro talent on both sides of the ball resembled either the Monstars or the Avengers, depending on who you root for.
The San Francisco 49ers proved that the Rams are vulnerable. In Week 1, Kyle Shanahan's team dismantled the Super Bowl favorites in every area.
Not only did the 49ers show the Giants that they can beat the Rams, but they also showed them exactly how to do it.
Giants don't have to take deep shots to beat Rams' defense
As enticing as explosive plays are in the modern NFL, the 49ers proved that you don't need them to win. The Rams were clearly afraid of allowing deep passes in Week 1 and dropped their defensive backs deep to limit them.
Niners quarterback Brock Purdy took advantage of the space that the Rams' defense allowed, with 28 of his 34 pass attempts coming less than ten yards down the field. Coming in at 5.9%, San Francisco's deep pass rate ranked 28th in the league in Week 1.
As a result, the 49ers systematically moved the ball down the field, picking up small gains on nearly every play.
The Giants used a similar strategy in their win over the Dallas Cowboys. Dart's deep pass rate of 6.9% ranked 26th in the league. He was willing to look to his checkdown whenever it was available. It's exactly what led to Devin Singletary's touchdown.
Dart can't get greedy against the Rams. If they come out in conservative looks again, the Giants need to nickel and dime their way down the field.
Giants will win or lose against Rams on third downs
The 49ers weren't shy about targeting Mike Evans on third downs. On their first drive of the game, which ended in a field goal, they threw the ball to the veteran for three separate third-down conversions. Evans was consistently able to beat man coverage in key situations. He ended the day with five catches on six third-down targets.
Rams | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
Offensive success rate on 3rd down | 22.2% (ranked 30th) | 58.3% (ranked 6th) |
Offensive EPA/Play on 3rd down | -0.85 (ranked 29th) | 0.07 (ranked 13th) |
In New York's Week 1 victory, Isaiah Likely was the go-to player on late downs. Dart consistently looked his way when he needed a completion. If Likely can maintain his late-down dominance, he'll give Big Blue a leg up.
On the other side of the ball, Los Angeles struggled to convert on third down against San Francisco. Only the Denver Broncos and the Cleveland Browns posted worse success rates on third down. New York's defense has to find ways to get off the field in key moments in Week 2.
Puka Nacua was Stafford's favorite third-down option against the 49ers, getting four targets on third downs. Nacua plays primarily in the slot, so Giants nickel defender Dru Phillips can expect to be tested throughout the game.
Giants must win the personnel battle
As the 49ers' win over the Rams showed, the intricacies of coaching go beyond calling plays. The personnel packages that coaches use can be just as important.
The Rams leaned on nickel personnel against the 49ers, subbing out a linebacker for an extra defensive back. But San Francisco took advantage of those looks by pounding the rock. L.A. allowed a rushing success rate of 68.8% when in nickel personnel, which ranked 31st in the league.
Conversely, the Rams were unable to take advantage when the 49ers used lighter personnel packages. When San Francisco had six or fewer defenders in the box, Los Angeles ranked last in the NFL in EPA per play.
The Giants' defense lived in nickel personnel in Week 1. In fact, Tremaine Edmunds and Arvell Reese were the only off-ball linebackers who saw the field. If San Francisco's performance is any indication, New York shouldn't change their tune in Week 2.
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