To say the New York Giants didn't get their value's worth when they drafted John Michael Schmitz Jr. with the 57th pick in the 2023 Draft would be an understatement. Three years after taking the former Minnesota standout, the center position feels just as unsettled as it did before they drafted him to solve it.
The Giants have had a frustrating time with the "Lazy Susan," where they have a need, spend premium draft capital on said need, only for it to come back around without a solution, and the need is back -- welcome to the JMS experience.
While it's important to take Spotrac's market valuation with a pinch of salt, the three-year, $37.3 million ($12.4 million annually) valuation for JMS feels pretty detached from reality. As he enters the final year of his rookie contract in 2026, the G-Men find themselves staring down a major switch-up in 2027 -- either through free agency or the draft -- if he cannot reverse his current trajectory.
John Michael Schmitz Jr.‘s projected contract doesn’t add up
When you look at how Spotrac calculates market value, it often comes down to age, draft pedigree, and positional inflation. That's how you end up with a number like $12.4 million per year for a guy who's likely staring down the barrel of a one-year, prove-it deal.
But teams won't pony up when three years of poor play show a very different story.
The baseline for any pricey extension is consistency -- or, at the very least, improvement -- but Pro Football Focus metrics show a player who has improved, but not enough for $37-plus million. Here's how his first three years in the league shake out:
Season | PFF Grade | Rank |
|---|---|---|
2023 | 41.4 | 37/37 |
2024 | 61.4 | 30/43 |
2025 | 60.8 | 29/40 |
The numbers make the problem pretty obvious. While Schmitz managed to bounce back from a brutal rookie season where he finished dead last among qualified centers, his last two years show that he has plateaued right around a 61 grade. That puts him firmly in the bottom tier of starting NFL centers, which is a tough sell for an eight-figure contract.
His core issue is an inability to hold his ground against powerful defensive linemen, collapsing the pocket from the inside out. This vulnerability compromises the guards next to him and disrupts the entire protection scheme. A center who requires constant assistance just to survive severely hamstrings the offense, and smart teams don't commit top dollar to a known liability.
Giants fans know better than anyone that general manager Joe Schoen hates parting ways with his draft picks, but throwing cash for replacement-level production will put this team in a financial bind for years. Schoen needs to avoid the temptation to double down on his former second-round pick.
Schmitz must take a massive leap forward, or the smartest move for the Giants is to let his contract expire and fix the position for good in 2027.
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