It only took over half of the season, but prognosticators are finally giving the John Harbaugh-led New York Giants some respect. Better late than never, we suppose, right?
Sitting at 5-2-1, Harbaugh and the Giants are (rightfully) the odds-on favorites to win the NFC East for the first time since 2011. They weren't as far ahead of the Dallas Cowboys in betting lines as their respective records might suggest until now. The gap between Big Blue and division rivals is widening, as reflected in the latest playoff probabilities; here's how the conference standings look by that metric.
Despite New York's roster (surprisingly) looking no different in a post-trade deadline world, the spreadsheets are beginning to notice. It's a testament to Harbaugh's influence in his first campaign as the club's head coach.
Note: Projections courtesy of Next Gen Stats' Playoff Probability.
NFC standings by 2026 playoff probability odds through Week 9
Rank | Team | Playoff Probability | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
1. | San Franciso 49ers | 94 percent | 7-1 |
2. | Chicago Bears | 84 percent | 7-2 |
3. | Detroit Lions | 83 percent | 6-2 |
4. | Minnesota Vikings | 74 percent | 6-2 |
5. | New York Giants | 66 percent | 5-2-1 |
6. | Green Bay Packers | 62 percent | 6-3 |
7. | Seattle Seahawks | 49 percent | 5-4 |
8. | Los Angeles Rams | 47 percent | 5-4 |
9. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 35 percent | 3-6 |
10. | Carolina Panthers | 31 percent | 3-5 |
11. | Dallas Cowboys | 28 percent | 4-5 |
12. | New Orleans Saints | 19 percent | 3-5 |
13. | Atlanta Falcons | 18 percent | 3-6 |
14. | Washington Commanders | 11 percent | 2-5-1 |
15. | Philadelphia Eagles | 1 percent | 2-7 |
16. | Arizona Cardinals | Less than 1 percent | 3-6 |
As recently as Week 7, the Cowboys were the front-runners to win the division. Apparently, beating a zombie Philadelphia Eagles squad to improve to 3-4 was enough to make them the chalk pick. That's even with the G-Men, who own the head-to-head advantage over Dallas, climbing to 4-2-1 with a statement victory over the Houston Texans.
Now, a gulf separates New York not only from the Cowboys but also from the Eagles and Washington Commanders. You are the company you keep, and the Giants are now associated with a much more respectable crowd. Harbaugh and Co. are now mentioned in the same breath as postseason hopefuls like the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers, as the numbers show.
Ranking in the top half of the league in both offensive (14th) and defensive (11th) expected points added per play, aka EPA, the Giants are legit. They may not look or feel like an average contender, yet their one loss since Sept. 27 speaks for itself. The Packers, Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers are the only NFC teams that can say the same during that stretch.
New York has more than stayed afloat without its franchise quarterback, star pass rusher and stalwart linebacker, who all went down for the year with injuries. They've gotten contributions all across the board — some anticipated and some not. Things are trending up for them, and it's nice to see others recognize it too.
After roughly a decade of disappointment, excluding a couple of outlier seasons, the Giants are back on track. They're building a strong foundation and giving fans an organization to be proud of once again. Many have doubted whether their success is real or sustainable, while the projections seem to answer that question with an unequivocal yes.
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