Just when you thought the NFL was turning into a pass-happy track meet, the running game took it personally. Just look at the New York Giants. The team might've finally found an heir to Eli Manning in Jaxson Dart, and instead of surrounding him with an arsenal of pass-catchers, they invested in the ground game.
The Giants might still be more zig than zag in that department, but with new head coach John Harbaugh running things, building a bigger, stronger, and more physical team is just part of his team's DNA.
However, as you look around the league, it's becoming impossible not to notice that running backs are having a moment. Saquon Barkley (can we say his name yet?) proved that an offense can still win Super Bowls when it goes through an elite back.
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson recently signed a market-resetting three-year, $75 million deal ($25 million annually). Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor received a two-year, $44 million deal ($22 million annually) shortly after. The next shoe to drop is Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who could reset the market just days after Bijan did.
The point is running backs are so back.
As we look at all these extensions, let's turn our attention to Tracy Jr. and ask how these new mega deals will impact the 26-year-old's market when he becomes a free agent after the 2027 season.
The short answer is: they don't.
But why take the shortcut when you can take the scenic route?
I want to be clear that I'm not doing this because I think Tracy is going to come remotely close to the monster extensions the league's best are getting, but the former Purdue standout is officially extension eligible after finishing up his second season as a non-first-round pick, which means New York can start negotiations if they want to be proactive.
He's currently entering the third year of his four-year, $4.3 million rookie contract signed after being selected in the fifth round of the 2024 Draft.
Now that he's eligible for a new deal, let's take a look at how each of Tracy Jr., Robinson, and Taylor fared through the first two seasons of their respective careers:
Tyrone Tracy Jr. | Bijan Robinson | Jonathan Taylor | |
|---|---|---|---|
Rushing yards | 1,579 | 2,432 | 2,980 |
Rushing TDs | 7 | 18 | 29 |
Receiving yards | 572 | 918 | 659 |
Receiving TDs | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Yards per carry | 4.3 | 4.7 | 5.3 |
Awards/Honors | N/A | Pro Bowl (1) | All-Pro (1), Pro Bowl (1) |
The Giants have a clearer picture of Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s next deal
The first thing that immediately jumps out is how far off Big Blue's running back is compared to the other two. If we're operating from a $20 million price point, the lack of top-end production will knock him down $10 million alone.
If we factor in his age -- which the Giants will since he's a running back -- he's a lot older than most of the league's third-year guys. Tracy turns 27 this season. Taylor is 27, but he's entering the seventh season of his career. Robinson is still only 24, entering Year 4.
Knock Tracy down another ~$5 million for his age, seeing as though he'll be entering his age-29 season after signing his next deal.
Also working against him is cult hero and fan favorite Cam Skattebo. Skatt presents a big problem to Tracy in the moolah department. It's not that the human-sized fire hydrant's fame is going to get in the way directly, but indirectly, it could lead to fewer touches and opportunities for TTJ -- and that's what we call in the money biz: no good.
Take off another $1 million, and we're looking at around $4 million a season for Tracy's services.
But since general manager Joe Schoen loves his draft picks, Harbaugh loves to feature multiple backs, and Tracy is the first Giants back since Barkley to post back-to-back 1,000 all-purpose yard seasons to begin their career, we'll give him the inverse hometown discount and tack on a few more million per season.
All of this leads me to believe that Tracy is looking at a three-year, $18 million deal ($6 million annually). That puts him in the ballpark with players like Rico Dowdle, Tyler Allgeier, and Jaylen Warren, which feels like a safe bet.
So, while the NFL's elite continue to take the highway to historic, bank-breaking paydays, Tracy Jr. will be perfectly fine taking that scenic route straight to the bank.
He won’t be resetting the market, and he won’t be commanding the eye-popping headlines of a Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs. But in a John Harbaugh offense that thrives on being bigger, stronger, and meaner than the competition, a reliable, versatile weapon at $6 million a year is exactly how a physical team keeps its DNA intact without blowing up the rest of its roster.
It's a win for the player, a win for the cap, and proof that even if you aren't landing the mega-deal, running backs are still very much back.
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