It's Week 10 against the Chicago Bears, and the forecast calls for exactly the kind of conditions that define November football -- cold air, heavy footing, and an afternoon decided in the trenches.
For the New York Giants, who have struggled mightily against the run this season, Sunday will be all about setting a tone early and dictating physicality. However, the numbers haven’t been kind to New York thus far.
Through nine weeks, New York ranks 31st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (150.0), ahead of only Cincinnati (166.4). Over the last three contests, that number has ballooned to 192.3 yards per game allowed on the ground, and when they’ve played on the road, it’s been even worse -- a league-worst 172.2 rushing yards per game allowed away from MetLife Stadium.
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For HC Brian Daboll, it's a trend that can't continue as Chicago’s ground game has been the spark for everything they do offensively.
Whether it’s D'Andre Swift or rookie Kyle Monangai, who erupted for 176 total yards in Week 9 against the Bengals, the Bears have found balance through their rushing attack. When the run game works, it opens everything for Caleb Williams, from play-action to quick rhythm throws to deep shots off of boot-action.
The Giants’ defensive key is simple but not easy -- take away that balance.
As it always has since his arrival years ago, it starts up front with Dexter Lawrence, the anchor of one of the league’s most talented defensive fronts. Control at the point of attack, eating double-teams, all in an effort to free up a talent like Bobby Okereke to flow downhill and make tackles before Swift or Monangai reach the second level.
On the edges, it’s time for the Giants to assert themselves not just as sack artists, but as tone-setters against the run. And then there’s rookie Abdul Carter, who’s quickly proven he belongs totaling 32 pressures in his first nine games.
This front seven has the personnel to dominate, but they need discipline to match aggression.
The bottom line? If New York can force Chicago into third-and-long situations, the entire game changes.
It's when Burns and Carter can pin their ears back and hunt, and for as talented as Caleb Williams is, he’s still a young signal-caller learning to handle pressure looks and disguise coverages in real time.
Speeding up his internal clock, forcing him off his spot, and creating turnover-worthy throws is exactly how the Giants can limit the Bears' multi-faceted offensive structure and walk out of Soldier Field with their third win of the campaign.
Chicago wants to make it a street fight with a new look interior front five. The Giants need to make it a test of execution. If that front seven shows up -- if they win the early downs and dictate the line of scrimmage -- New York can flip the narrative of their run defense, and further, flip Week 10 on its head.