Predicting what kind of deal Saquon Barkley gets from the NY Giants

NFC Wild Card Playoffs - New York Giants v Minnesota Vikings
NFC Wild Card Playoffs - New York Giants v Minnesota Vikings / David Berding/GettyImages

With Dexter Lawrence getting his long-term deal done with the NY Giants, all eyes are now focused on Saquon Barkley.

Barkley was placed on the non-exclusive franchise tag back in March; the two sides have until July 17 to work on a long-term deal. There's a lot of optimism that a deal gets done between Barkley and the Giants. Barkley has stated that he wants to be "a Giant for life" and Giants general manager Joe Schoen has said that he loves Saquon and would love to have him back.

As time is continuing to tick on the Giants and Barkley getting a deal done, what would be a fair deal for both Barkley and the Giants?

The Giants hope to get something done with Saquon Barkley in the near future

Right around the NFL trade deadline last fall, Barkley turned down a deal that was reported to be in the $12.5 million range - an offer that is no longer on the table. Barkley is currently under contract for the franchise tag, which is at $10.1 million. Understandably, Saquon wants more money.

The running back market has dropped dramatically, especially in free agency. Miles Sanders got a four-year, $25 million deal with the Carolina Panthers and Jamaal Williams got a three-year, $12 million deal with the New Orleans Saints. Those contracts may have played a factor in the Giants' decision to pull the previous offer from Barkley.

Players like Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook and Austin Ekeler have been reported to being on the trade market since March, but with no takers on any of them at the moment. Although, them being on the market before the NFL Draft may have been a tactic to see if teams were willing to give up possible draft picks and none did.

With Barkley's non-exclusive franchise tag, if Barkley had negotiated a deal with another team and the Giants decided not to match it, the Giants would have been awarded two first-round draft picks; a price that no team in the league is likely going to make.

That is where the Giants have the leverage. With teams not looking to offer draft picks, Barkley's best interest is to negotiate with the Giants and try to work something out. On the flip side, Barkley's leverage is being the best skill player on their offense who proved that he could still produce at a high level in 2022 and in the postseason.

So, what can the Giants and Barkley do to meet in the middle and find common ground on a deal that works for both sides? Since the Giants pulled back the $12.5 million reported offer, and with Barkley not happy about the $10.1 million franchise tag, meeting in the middle of that could be where both sides need to do.

So to start when the two sides reconvene on contract talks, maybe an offer of a three-year deal in the $30-33 million range could work, which would give Barkley more than the franchise tag and slightly less than the previous offer. Thus, this would all the two sides to meet in the middle. Of course, the Giants may need to make a little bit more of an offer to sweeten the deal with Barkley to make him happy going forward.

So, if not the three year, $30-33 million being enough to close the deal that works for both parties, maybe a three-year, $40 million deal gets the job done. Or, a four-year, $50 million deal, which could come back around to the initial offer from last year between the two sides.

It helps that the optimism around the league is there for the Giants and Barkley getting a deal done, especially for the fanbase who supports Barkley, as well as for the players who look up to and respect Barkley as a leader and captain. One of those is Lawrence himself, who got his deal and wants to see Saquon get his as well.

With the 2023 NFL Draft now completed and one extension for a key veteran done, it seems like getting another for perhaps the current face of the franchise is all but inevitable. The Giants do have two months to work it out with Barkley, but maybe in this case, getting it done sooner rather than later makes the working relationship easier moving forward.

As far as what kind of deal Barkley gets, we'll predict a three-year deal for $36.5 million with $25 million guaranteed. This would showcase to Barkley how valuable he is for the franchise. Only time will tell if some good news arrives soon or not.

READ MORE: Could a Saquon Barkley deal get done this week?