Belichick On The Most Important Stats Other Than Winning
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Eli Manning could have told you this as well in his classic line: “It’s not about stats, it’s about winning games.”
But Patriots Coach Bill Belichick was kind enough to unpack the notion and go a bit further as to which statistics are the most important other than, you know, the final score.
Via PFT:
"A year ago, Patriots coach Bill Belichick was asked to explain the decline in statistical production from Randy Moss, and he bristled at the question.“Stats are for losers,” Belichick said then. “The final score is for winners.”Belichick no longer has to defend Moss, but he does still have some thoughts on stats. And although he’s not exactly backing down on his statement that the score is what matters, he did revise and extend his remarks about stats when asked by reporters whether the statistical numbers have any meaning.“I think they all have meaning; it’s just the priority of the stats. Wins is number one. Points is number two, because that correlates to winning.”“And then you get to the things that correlate to scoring, which [are] red area, big plays, and third down becomes a part of that because of being able to sustain drives and that type of things,” Belichick said. “But if you make big plays, then third down becomes less important. You can offset any good numbers with bad numbers. You can offset bad numbers with good numbers, but in the end, it’s about getting points on the board and keeping them off. . . . I’m not saying they’re not significant, they are, but the ones that correlate the highest to winning, you still have to consider them as the most important.”"
As the Giants gear up for what many believe will become a shootout Sunday night with Michael Vick and the Eagles — Belichick once again bestowes upon us the golden rule in football.
"“It’s about getting points on the board and keeping them off”"
The Giants, up until last game anyway, have been terrific this year in terms of putting points on the board WHILE AT THE SAME TIME keeping them off. So while the Giants are ranked the #1 defense and #2 offense overall in terms of yards… Belichick would say it doesn’t matter. Red zone efficiency, third downs, big plays, and of course points… that is what matters in the end.
So how do the Giants stack up according to Bill Belichick? And while we’re at it where do the Patriots and Eagles rank just for fun?
Points per game – 26.2 or #6 in the NFL.
GIANTS OFFENSE: Scored 236 points (26.2/g), 6th of 32 in the NFL.
GIANTS DEFENSE: Allowed 193 points (21.4/g), 14th.
Notes: The Giants offense has 29 TDs total. They have the most passing TDs in the league and the 3rd most rushing TDs. New England is ranked #1 with 28.7 points per game. Philadelphia is ranked at #2 with 28.6 points per game. Defensively however the Giants rank 14th, the Eagles 22nd, and the Patriots 24th.
Third Down conversions – #1 on Defense.
GIANTS OFFENSE: 44/117 or 37.6% conversion. Good enough for only 18th – 20th in the league depending on the stat service you use.
GIANTS DEFENSE: 33/114 – #1 in the NFL with allowing only 28.3% Third Down conversions.
Notes: The Giants convert about 4.9 3rd downs per game again ranking them tied for 18th, while the Eagles convert 6.9 per game and currently rank #3 in the NFL on this stat. The Eagle defense however is 13th in the league on 3rd down conversions allowed by the defense. The Patriots are dead last in case you were wondering allowing 6.3 per game.
Red Zone efficiency – #7 in NFL
GIANTS OFFENSE: 60% conversion is good enough for 7th best in the NFL.
GIANTS DEFENSE: Allow 52% conversion, 18th in the league.
Notes: make no mistake about it – that’s miles ahead of where they were last year on both counts. While leading the league in appearances, the Giants only converted on 48% of their trips to the red zone – ranked 22nd in the league last year. Defensively the Giants allowed 67.74% conversion in the red zone. Philadelphia and New England are tied at #9 this year with ~58% conversion on offense. On defense, Philly allows LEAGUE WORST 78% conversion in the red zone. New England is 23rd with 56% conversion allowed as well.
“Big Plays”
I don’t have a decent benchmark for this one unfortunately. But the Giants defense, particularly the secondary, has done a tremendous job all season of limiting big plays whether it be stopping big runs or deep pass plays. But last week against Dallas they allowed both. At home, the Giants defense allowed 7 “Big Plays” – even though they limited the cowboys to 3/11 on third downs. This is exactly what Belichick is talking about… the more big plays your defense allows the less your 3rd down conversions matter. With the #1 third down conversion rating on defense though, and the #3 and #4 rating in run / pass defense respectively, the Giants are allowed a little latitude here since they are so consistently good at shutting down the opposing offense. But after last weeks debacle I would say that latitude is all used up at this point. Time to shut it down.
Conclusion
It’s enlightening to see where the Giants rank according to Bill Belichick’s most meaningful benchmarks. The Giants remain competitive on offense with teams like the Eagles and Patriots, within a field goal’s reach anyways in terms of points per game. Defensively, the Eagles and Patriots trail the Giants significantly with their third down conversion rankings and red zone conversions. But overall – this is not a blowout matchup either way. I think the Giants are indeed deserved of a top 10 NFL power ranking based on these findings.
Looking toward this weeks matchup as the Giants head to Philadelphia – based on this analysis the things to watch for the Giants are going to be:
1. that third down conversion metric… can the Giants convert on offense and keep Michael Vick and the Philadelphia offense off the field by executing their game plan. And can they prevent the Eagles from converting as a #1 ranked defense in this area.
2. red zone metrics – can the Giants punch the ball in the end zone against a league worst red zone defense in the Eagles? They are going to have to score TDs when given the opportunity, Philly has shown they have a hard time stopping teams from inside the 20. Let’s see what shakes out.
3. clock control as it relates to points #1 and #2 — can the Giants score points off sustained drives by converting 3rd downs and moving the chains and eating up the game clock, while at the same time keep Philadelphia from executing on third downs, getting them off the field as quickly as possible, and NOT give up big plays to a big play offense in the process?
I think the Giants have a shot to win this game, few though are looking at it this way. Thanks to Coach Bill Belichick for the inspiration and what really matters most at the end of the day in terms of stats.