NFL Draft 2016: What If Giants Really Pick Ezekiel Elliott?

Is Ohio State Buckeyes running back Ezekiel Elliott a legitimate consideration for the New York Giants? What started as a whisper has turned into a roar. Big Blue has become one of the five teams who might land the “complete” back. Some believe the G-Men don’t want the back, they NEED him. NFLDraftScout.com Senior Analyst Dane Brugler had Elliott going to the Giants in his mock draft, as did NFL Media Analyst Daniel Jeremiah in his predictions. The chatter around Elliott has become difficult to ignore. Will the Giants be able to resist temptation?

I really didn’t think the Giants would “waste” their first round draft pick on a running back for a couple reasons: 1) The Giants have bigger fish to fry, namely pass rush, linebacker, free safety, wide receiver or tight end, and offensive line. 2) The Giants are overflowing with running backs – Shane Vereen, Rashad Jennings, and Andre Williams are all signed through 2017 and Orleans Darkwa is a restricted free agent. 3) Running backs are a dime a dozen, they often get hurt, and the league no longer needs workhorses or featured backs to succeed. Guys like Adrian Peterson put up big numbers, but when they’re stopped, their team loses. The Minnesota Vikings haven’t been able to make a deep run in the playoffs in Peterson’s career.

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But, then you have a guy like Todd Gurley. Some thought the Giants made a mistake by drafting tackle Ereck Flowers out of Miami instead of the Georgia Bulldog with their first pick in 2015. Gurley finished the season with 1,100+ rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns and a 4.8 yards per carry average. The now Los Angeles Rams had the 7th best rushing attack in the league and if they got decent play out of their quarterback, they could’ve competed for the division title. Hell, they beat the Cardinals and Seahawks soundly without a serious passing attack.

The Giants, like other teams, were probably apprehensive about selecting Gurley due to the severe injury he suffered his final season at Athens. Many have compared Elliott to Gurley in that, like Todd, Ezekiel is the top running back heading into the draft. Some have said Elliott’s even better while others think Ezekiel doesn’t stack up. However, his accolades and achievements are unavoidable:

• Graham-George Offensive Player of the Year (2015)
• Ameche-Dayne Running Back of the Year (2015)
• Unanimous First Team All-Big Ten (2015)
• Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year (2015)
• Most points and rushing yards in Big Ten (2015)
• 5th all-time in Big Ten in rushing yards per attempt
• James E. Sullivan Award (2015)
• CFP National Championship Offensive MVP (2015)
• Sugar Bowl Offensive MVP (2015)

Over the past two seasons (2014-2015), Elliott’s amassed:

• More than 1,800 rushing yards each year
• More than six yards per carry average
• 41 rushing touchdowns

With the contracts the Giants currently have at the running back position, selecting Elliott seems like a financial quagmire. Big Blue already spends enough on the position, there are other areas that could use a cash infusion. Take a look at the money invested in the backfield:

Rashad Jennings came on strong at the end of the season, making a case to keep him as the featured back. He was ranked 12th out of 54 running backs in “true value”, which means his numbers were better than what the Giants are paying for. Cutting Jennings would mean a dead cap of $562k – $1.1 million.

Shane Vereen, on the other hand, didn’t quite perform up to his contract. Among the highest contracts handed out to a running back, Vereen’s numbers didn’t warrant the spend. Shane’s got the 6th highest cap hit in 2016 and would cost the Giants $1.67 – $2.34 million in dead cap if he were released. I’d expect McAdoo to utilize Vereen more in Year 2.

Andre Williams could be trade bait or a cap casualty. The Giants would only absorb dead cap of $113k – $227k if they cut the Boston College product.

While the Giants might regret not drafting Elliott and passing on a bonafide star for a second straight draft, they’d be wiser to go defense with their top pick.