The NFL offseason is an interesting anomaly period in an otherwise rampant and football-obsessed nation.
This time in particular, after offseason workouts and before the beginning of training camp, is expectedly dry and barren in terms of serviceable headlines. Players may get a new contract, others may find themselves in trouble with “the law” and draw the ire of fans and management alike, while even fewer find themselves at the center of a new summer banger.
Eli Manning, the newly enshrined face of the incorruptible gone wrong, has never been a part of offseason headlines. Aside from his charitable work, appearances at his annual camp, and the occasional commercial, the youngest Manning steers clear of the spotlight.
While this off season has found Manning at the center of a memorabilia dispute, where self-respecting adults realize their hard earned money is spent on jerseys featuring fake Gatorade stains, another debate has come up, and deserves discussion as Manning creeps closer towards that good night.
211 & Counting
ESPN and other outlets, including GMenHQ, have weighed the topic of Eli’s inclusion in the Hall of Fame. More often than not, the conversation revolves around his post-season success versus regular season mediocrity and his relatively unimpressive stature when looking at other contemporary passers. These are legitimate reservations when considering his post career legacy. But, when looking at the context of his career, the teams he played on, and the supporting cast around him, there is little doubt that the league’s current iron man is a sure fire lock for the Hall of Fame.
Before even considering his stats, how he compares to contemporaries, and his success on the field, Eli’s current streak of 211 consecutive starts gives his candidacy a legitimacy that not many professional football players can boast. He has played through injury, been beaten to a pulp by one of this era’s greatest defenses, played behind historically terrible offensive line play and incompetent rushing attacks, and made the other Steve Smith a Pro Bowler and the Giants all-time season receptions leader. The last bit is unrelated but true and speaks to the teams and players he has shared a field with.
Other than Brett Favre, whose streak remains the most tremendous single stat in professional football, and his brother Peyton, Eli’s current streak remains and has come to define him nearly as much as his post season success. Another season without a missed start and he will tie his older brother for the second most consecutive starts by a quarterback with 227 total starts. This stat is often overlooked when considering Eli’s legacy. But it should be at the forefront partly due to the brutal nature of football, and also to the absolute faith the Giants have in him to consistently give the team the best chance to win.
Do Stats Matter?
The most obvious determinant of a player’s candidacy for the hall is his stats, and while people derail Eli’s stats and regular season ability with impunity, the numbers do not necessarily concede the same observations. Yes, his passer rating, QBR, and winning percentage are exceedingly average, with his career passer rating falling somewhere in the neighborhood of Marc Brunell and Mark Bulger. His winning percentage hovers around those of Brian Griese and Dave Krieg, both perfectly serviceable, even slightly above average quarterbacks.
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Eli’s “success numbers”, those that show his overall quarterback play, are not impressive. His stats, yards, touchdowns, completions, etc., are all top ten and will likely pass your favorite quarterback, unless his name is Brady, Brees, Favre, Marino, or the other Manning. So why does Eli’s regular season perceived mediocrity validate a place in the Hall of Fame?
Historical context aside, as Roger Staubach’s rating is slightly lower than Eli’s and Warren Moon’s winning percentage is significantly lower than Eli’s. Eli’s greatness does not reside in any tangible number or stat; it is his consistent ability to be his team’s greatest chance to win in any game, and his reliability in showing up every game.
The one outlier in this, where Eli truly looked over matched, unprepared, and indefensible was the 2008 divisional game against the Eagles. Due to circumstances, match up, and home field, this is his worst start as a professional. The Giants were a legitimate threat to repeat as Super Bowl champs, but a momentous lapse in judgment from his best receiver completely changed the Giants’ fortunes. And just as detractors regurgitate the same lines about the interception Eli nearly threw to Asante Samuel in Super Bowl XLII, or the luck and fortune that happened to go their way during the Super Bowl years, Eli was still the one to led his team to victories on the road against the eventual Super Bowl combatants during the ’08 season, the Cardinals and Steelers.
Forgotten Season
The entire 2008 season is glossed over when pundits and analysts dissect recent Giants’ history and Eli’s career. Tom Coughlin believed that team was fully capable of winning a Super Bowl, and while the team was a run dominant team, Eli helmed the reins, and like a more competent final-season Peyton, Eli would have another ring to bolster his resume.
This is all to say that there is a tremendous amount of hypocrisy when discussing Eli’s legacy. His longevity and numbers are interconnected and show that one does not correlate to success in the other. But, similarly positioned quarterbacks, like the aforementioned Staubach and Moon, as well as contemporaries such as Roethlisberger, Rivers, Rodgers, and even Luck are all put on a higher tier than Eli, for reasons that are still elusive.
Hall of Fame Worth(y)
Bill Barnwell of ESPN, who ran a NFL preview last summer, projected the chances of current NFL players making the Hall of Fame. Among quarterbacks who he gave a higher chance for induction are Rodgers, Brady, and Brees (100 percent), Russell Wilson (85 percent), Roethlisberger (90 percent), Luck (55 percent), and Cam Newton (65 percent). He places Eli’s likelihood at 40 percent, lower than his teammate Odell Beckham’s 50 percent.
New York Giants
Barnwell concedes that “This isn’t a commentary on who I think should or should not be in the Hall of Fame, but an estimate of who is likely to get in based on the historical predilections of the writers who have Hall of Fame votes.” Also of note is his likelihood for Philip Rivers, which is 35 percent and his less than concrete reasoning, “Rivers has a much better statistical track record and has made it to five Pro Bowls. He’s also 4-5 in the playoffs. Rivers is a better quarterback than Eli in a vacuum, but Manning has had the context to produce a better story.”
Obviously, these two quarterbacks will be linked forever due to the trade that occurred in the 2004 draft. Their careers have taken somewhat different paths, but according to Barnwell, Eli’s “context” of winning twice as many playoff games and two more Super Bowls than Rivers doesn’t necessarily make him a better quarterback, just makes for a better story. Which makes Barnwell disingenuous at best, and delusional at worst.
It would make sense to compare these two player’s careers, statistics and supporting cast to make a legitimate case for who the better quarterback is. And for the sake of contextual argument, Roethlisberger will be added to this comparison, who according to Barnwell is essentially guaranteed a spot, unless other “off-field issues” arise, i.e. he rapes another girl. From Pro Football Reference, here is a comparative look at each of their career statistical totals:
All three post similar numbers, but where Roethlisberger and Rivers do outperform Manning is passer rating, completion percentage, and interceptions. Again, passer rating is an arbitrary stat that really has no correlation to success and any case about carelessness with the ball or inaccuracy to be brought against Manning also has to be levied against another Hall of Famer who led the league in interceptions three times and threw more than 20 in a season six times, Brett Favre.
Eli’s numbers, as well as his two other draft mates, are all on pace to be Hall of Fame worthy if they aren’t there already. Yet Barnwell’s logic, and other’s like his, continue to deride Eli’s statistical and post season success while heaping praise on Rivers and Roethlisberger for the exact same things. Another look a statistical comparisons is there per game playoff numbers.
A quick look at these illustrates Eli’s play as not only superior, but more directly related to his team’s success than the other two quarterbacks. His touchdown rate is higher, interception rate lower, and his cumulative passer rating in the playoffs is higher than both Rivers and Roethlisberger. His stats have correlated to his team’s success in the playoffs, and his regular season stats are just as vaunted as any other Hall of Fame eligible player.
Of course, the other quarterbacks’ cases for Hall of Fame induction have shortcomings as well. But Barnwell still views their resumes as more promising than Eli’s. But if Eli continues at his current pace, or even if that pace slows down, and he averages 3,900 yards and 25 TD’s and plays for the next four seasons, which he is on record as saying he wants to do, his numbers will total more than 63,000 passing yards and 400 touchdowns.
Even in an era of inflated stats and excessive passing, those are lofty numbers that only a few in NFL history have ever even approached. At the end of his piece on Manning, after comparing him to other multiple time Super Bowl MVP’s, he mentions the accomplishments of those MVP’s in the hundreds of other games they played.
But other than Brady, multiple-time MVP’s Montana, Bradshaw and Starr all were never as prolific as Eli, and were almost never the singular most important piece on their respective championship teams. And still, Eli’s accomplishments, wins and numbers are still disregarded because of some misplaced notion of inferior play.
Brady Has Gronk, Eli Had Boss
Which brings up his actual play, the context in which he has won games in incredible circumstances, and the players he has dragged to Super Bowl victories. Brady has had Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Deion Branch, and other Hall of Fame players on both sides of the ball to complement his play. Peyton has had Edgerrin James, Marvin Harrison, Brandon Stokely, Reggie Wayne, Demaryius Thomas, and an all-time great defense to pull his geriatric arm to a Super Bowl victory. Ben Roethlisberger had some incredible defenses to rely on during his early years, not to mention a Hall of Fame running back and Pro Bowl wide receiver in Hines Ward and Jerome Bettis. Even Philip Rivers had an all-time great running back to hand off to in LaDainian Tomlinson and a future Hall of Famer in Antonio Gates to throw to for his entire career.
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Thus far, Eli’s greatest weapon has been Odell Beckham, whose emergence and energy has been a godsend for the franchise but has not resulted in meaningful victories. Beckham is a transcendent talent, but the talent that has been around Eli, and has still hoisted a Lombardi trophy or been marginally successful is quite underwhelming.
The likes of Jake Ballard, Kevin Boss, Hakeem Nicks, and Steve Smith have all played vital roles in the Giants’ offense during their Super Bowl victories. Bear Pascoe was the Giants starting tight end in Super Bowl XLVI after both Travis Beckum and Jake Ballard were injured. Mario Manningham was a great player, when he had Eli throwing to him.
Both Manningham and David Tyree are immortalized because of the catches they made with Eli throwing to them. Both never played any significant role after they left the Giants. The same can be said for Pascoe, Ballard, Boss, Nicks, and Smith. Ahmad Bradshaw experienced the most success after winning two Super Bowls with the Giants, but his is one of the few examples of an ex-Giant being able to find success with another team; although, as a running back his individual success had less to do with the play of his quarterback.
A Forgettable Season
Eli’s worst season in 2013 was less the result of his play, and more a result of a roster that fell apart and drove itself into the ground. A wide receiving corp of Victor Cruz, a one-footed Hakeem Nicks, Rueben Randle and Jerrel Jernigan was featured; Peyton Hillis headlined a backfield comprised of Andre Brown, Da’Rel Scott and David Wilson, whose career ended prematurely after an injury.
The team had one Pro Bowl player in Antrel Rolle, lost its first six games and still managed to go 7-9. This season was the catalyst for the overhaul that led to a reconfigured Giants team. Eli had an awful season, his receiving corp was depleted and the 28th ranked offensive line didn’t help. It’s hard to imagine that Peyton Hillis was leaned on to make a contribution to this team, but that was the state of the Giants. Eli’s ability had no bearing on the failures of this team, but a lot of credit has to go to him for even getting the team to 7-9.
Problems Still Persist
The offensive lines woes are still present today, as Pro Football Focus has them again ranked 28th in the league. Much has been said about where the blame goes when the team plays poorly; but the similarities between the Giant’s futilities on offense in 2016 and 2013 are noticeable. The offensive line play is shaky at best and the running game struggles to provide anything meaningful. The difference however, between the 11-5 team of last year and the awful 7-9 team from 2013, is the success of Eli and his ability to make plays and create opportunities for his receivers. Given similar ineptitude on the offensive line and in the running game, Eli, with the help of an improved defense, is the difference between a successful and disastrous season.
David Tyree was a Pro Bowl Gunner
Even in their worst years, Brady, Peyton, Montana, and Bradshaw never had a complete roster breakdown like Eli had in 2013. Montana was buoyed by the greatest receiver of all time and one of the best dual threats out of the back field in Roger Craig. His defense was relatively unimposing in the early ‘80’s. However Ronnie Lott, Charles Haley, Eric Wright, and Dwight Hicks all made multiple Pro Bowls and All-Pro teams during the ‘80’s. The Steelers’ defense of the ‘70’s needs no explanation, not to mention the Hall of Famers Bradshaw had on his offense. And Peyton and Brady were never without at least a few perennial All-Pros and Pro-Bowlers on either side of the ball.
There were three combined Pro Bowl players on the 2007 and 2011 Super Bowl winning teams, and only one player, Jason Pierre-Paul was named an All-Pro in either year. While these designations do not always denote a good player or not, the Giants roster makeup has never been overly impressive. It has constantly relied on steady, consistent play from its quarterback to be successful. There are cases where Eli can take a team on his back, like in 2011, and carry one of the league’s worst defenses and rushing attacks to a Super Bowl victory, or he can be a reliable field general like in 2007-08.
Numbers (and Rings) Don’t Lie
Skeptics and critics prefer to look at his career in totality, and pick apart its shortcomings, or perceived deficiencies when looking at specific stats. Admittedly, when he does retire, Eli’s career will be looked at in totality. But to do so is to overlook the incredible job he has done for the Giants, a team he has not missed a start for, and a team he helped reestablish in a time when the only thing people want to talk about is a Patriots’ dynasty. Critics cannot have it both ways, simultaneously stressing the importance of post season success while noting Drew Brees’ excellence, or stressing the importance of stats and preferring Philip Rivers. Eli’s career exceeds both of theirs’ in terms of respective stat choosing. He will have garnered more post season success than Brees and match if not exceed Rivers’ numbers.
His 2011 season will continue to hold up against any MVP candidate or discussion. His 4,933 yards are still the most by a Super Bowl winning quarterback. The post season run saw him eliminate new golden child Matt Ryan, MVP and reigning world champ Aaron Rodgers, the tough and upstart 49er’s in Candlestick, and cap it off by beating the now universally acclaimed GOAT, Tom Brady for the second time. Any other quarterback does that and he is automatically in the Hall of Fame, and that was Eli’s encore after defeating the 18-0 Patriots.
The Rest is Icing
He has nothing else to prove and really no more to gain. Quarterbacks are idolized and hyped for doing far less than he has; another Super Bowl isn’t even necessary to solidify his spot in the Hall. And neither is a couple more seasons racking up yards chucking it to Odell. Eli’s play has proved his worth for the Hall. If the best argument for his exclusion is his career completion percentage is under 60, then maybe a Hall of Statistically Impressive can be established for Philip Rivers.