New York Giants: Madden 19 predicts Week 4 showdown vs. Saints

The New York Giants are coming off a Week 3 victory against the Houston Texans where they were every bit the team we expected them to be when head coach Pat Shurmur and GM Dave Gettleman took over this offseason.

Eli Manning was his vintage self. He proved that he still has plenty left in the tank, throwing for 297 yards, two touchdowns with a sparkling 86.2 completion percentage for the New York Giants.

Saquon Barkley and Wayne Gallman combined for over 100 yards and a score on the ground, and Big Blue’s defense held superstars Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins in check despite missing corner Eli Apple and outside linebacker Olivier Vernon.

Perhaps the most impressive part (to me at least) is that our weekly Madden 19 simulations are a perfect 3-0 to begin the season! So, of course, we’ll turn to EA Sports for Week 4’s matchup prediction to see how the Giants fare against the high-octane New Orleans Saints offense.

Sunday’s contest will be Manning’s seventh career game against his hometown team in New Orleans and his seventh meeting against the ageless wonder Drew Brees, which includes 2005 when Brees was a member of the San Diego Chargers.

Thanks to Pro-Football-Reference.com, here are the career head-to-head totals for the two Canton-bound signal-callers:

• Total Passing Yards: Manning 1,987; Brees 2,177
• Total TD/Int ratio: Manning 16/5; Brees 20/4
• Total Passer Rating: Manning 92.7; Brees 112.1
• Wins: Manning 2; Brees 5

Brees gets the edge in every major category despite both quarterbacks posting flashy numbers. I mean, who could forget 2015’s barn-burner where both teams combined for 101 total points, 1,024 total team yards (Giants 416, Saints 608) and 13 passing touchdowns (Manning 6, Brees 7) that ultimately led to New York’s 49-52 defeat.

Statistics are great, but we can all agree that the most important numbers of all are wins and losses.

The only victories that the Manning-led G-Men could muster against Brees were at home at MetLife Stadium in 2012 and, most recently, in 2016, which was the last time the two faced off. If history tells us anything, it’s that Sunday’s matchup will rest on the arm of each QB with both defenses taking a back seat.

Who will come out on top? Get your popcorn ready, people, because Madden has the answers.

Passing stats

• Eli Manning –  26/44, 273 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 82.8 QBR
• Drew Brees – 21/34, 220 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 90.3 QBR

If you’re wondering whether we’ll get a repeat of 2015, the answer, as far as Madden is concerned, is a resounding no. In fact, the predicted numbers for both passers are relatively pedestrian compared to previous battles between the two, which is stunning considering how many weapons each offense carries.

Perhaps the biggest factor is that Manning and Brees are playing behind two dominant run games with explosive playmakers in Barkley and Alvin Kamara.

But how about Michael Thomas and Odell Beckham Jr.? Don’t worry, we’ll get to them shortly.

Manning gets a boost this week behind an offensive line that played the best it has in years thanks to Shurmur finally ripping off the Ereck Flowers Band-Aid that has been stuck to the Giants skin since 2015.

Starting right tackle Chad Wheeler was far from perfect last Sunday in Houston, but he did have to deal with three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt all afternoon, so we’ll make an exception.

But Wheeler’s mere presence seemed to lift the player’s around him, injecting a dose of chemistry throughout the o-line that we haven’t seen in quite some time.

Wheeler faces another tough test in Week 4 against Cameron Jordan, who has recorded four sacks in the last two games.

The Giants will try to keep the momentum going at the line of scrimmage.

Rushing stats

New York Giants:

• Saquon Barkley – 16 carries, 74 yards
• Wayne Gallman – 4 carries, 16 yards

New Orleans Saints:

• Alvin Kamara – 23 carries, 95 yards, 2 TDs

Offensive coordinator Mike Shula did a great job last Sunday keeping his rookie superstar Barkley away from the edge where Watt and Jadeveon Clowney excel with elite speed for their positional group.

Instead, he kept Barkley churning inside between the tackles on 17 carries for 82 yards highlighted by a 15-yard touchdown run in the first quarter on an inside-zone run out of shotgun formation.

Madden predicts a similar script for Week 4 with Barkley finding success against a Saints run defense that ranks sixth-overall in rushing yards surrendered per game with 84.3, per ESPN.

The problem for the Giants lies in the fact that New Orleans also ranks third in the NFL in points per game with 34.7 through three weeks.

The Saints offense’s ability to score big helps their run defense by forcing opponents to pass more than they would like to, which consequently eliminates run threats late in games. For a New York Giants air-attack that depends on the successfulness of establishing the power run first, Shurmur needs to make sure the Saints don’t jump too far ahead on the scoreboard at any point in the game.

Receiving stats

New York Giants:

• Odell Beckham Jr. – 6 receptions, 71 yards
• Sterling Shepard – 6 receptions, 58 yards, 2 TDs
• Saquon Barkley – 5 receptions, 58 yards
• Rhett Ellison – 4 receptions, 42 yards

New Orleans Saints:

• Benjamin Watson – 6 receptions, 53 yards
• Alvin Kamara – 6 receptions, 78 yards
• Ted Ginn Jr. – 3 receptions, 33 yards
• Cameron Meredith – 3 receptions, 35 yards
• Michael Thomas – 2 receptions, 20 yards, 1 TD

There are only three wide receivers in the NFL who rank in the top 15 in receptions entering Week 4 and are still without a touchdown: Julio Jones, Jarvis Landry, and Odell Beckham Jr.

Beckham is far too talented for that trend to continue, especially since he leads New York in receiving with the next man more than 100 yards behind. Unfortunately, Madden does not expect OBJ’s scoring drought to end this week.

He’ll be matched up and likely shadowed all afternoon by 2017 Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore. The sophomore was absolutely baptized by Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans in Week 1, who put up a dominant 7-147-1 line against him.

Beckham is not as physical a receiver as Evans, but he can create separation against the best of the best like it’s nobody’s business. I wouldn’t be surprised if he breaks one or two big plays Sunday.

Tight end Evan Engram is out and likely won’t play for a few more weeks with an MCL sprain. Don’t sleep on bulldozer Rhett Ellison, who caught a touchdown in the red zone against Houston last week. He’s more than just a blocker.

And yes, you read those stats above correctly—Michael Thomas with only two receptions for 20 yards? Janoris Jenkins, have yourself a day, man.

Total team stats

New York Giants:

• Total offense: 363 yards
• Total team: 392 yards
• Rushing: 90 yards
• Passing: 273 yards
• Turnovers: 1
• Penalties: 2-10
• Time of Possession: 11:26* 

New Orleans Saints:

• Total offense: 322 yards
• Total team: 322 yards
• Rushing: 102 yards
• Passing: 220 yards
• Turnovers: 0
• Penalties: 2-20
• Time of Possession: 12:34*

(*Madden 19 simulation runs six-minute quarters for the most realistic stat outputs)

This game is pretty balanced in terms of total yardage with the Giants building off of Week 3’s offensive outbreak and grabbing the edge in the box score. Brees has always been a better player at home, though the road version of himself is still enough to strike fear in the hearts of defenses across the league.

The G-Men again face the disadvantage of being short-handed of key contributors with the injury list beginning to build.

Those injuries didn’t burn them last Sunday, but head coach Sean Payton is a master at creating mismatches. It’s hard to think he won’t find a few this week with the obvious goal to isolate linebacker Alec Ogletree and Kamara in open space.

We don’t need intricate stats to tell you that, that is not a matchup the Giants want.

It will be up to Shurmur and defensive coordinator James Bettcher to throw the kitchen sink at Brees and Co. to keep No. 9 off the field as much as possible and off-balanced when he is on it.

Final

OK, I will leave you with one last string of numbers before wrapping up.

In the six games between the Giants and Saints where Brees and Manning were both starters, there have been an equal amount played on the road and at home for each club.

The total points scored combined between the two teams in each location since 2006 are as follows:

• New Orleans (Superdome): 75, 73, 101 for a total of 249 points (83 points per game average.)
• East Rutherford (Giants/MetLife Stadium): 37, 79, 29 for a total of 145 points (48.3 points per game average.)

Location is everything, and Madden predicts this week’s total points to fall in the range typical for when the G-Men are the home team in this specific matchup.

Unfortunately for New York Giants fans attending this weekend, Big Blue spends most of the afternoon/evening playing catch-up and falling behind as much as 24-6 at one point in the third quarter before two desperation touchdowns late in the fourth.

Brees may not be a New Orleans native like Manning, but he carries just as much of the city’s fabric that is now permanently embroidered into his DNA, constantly reminding Eli and the Giants who is ultimately superior in this matchup and who has been for quite some time.

New Orleans Saints 30, New York Giants 20