If Jaxson Dart can lead the New York Giants to a 14-3 record next season and head to the NFC Championship Game in Year 2, I will eat a football. That sort of a leap sounds wild, but quarterbacks with Dart's traits have made some pretty ridiculous jumps in their second year. The proof is sitting right there in front of us.
The 23-year-old gave fans a reason to be optimistic with his impressive rookie season. He threw for a modest 2,272 yards and 15 touchdowns, while setting a single-season franchise record with nine rushing touchdowns as a rookie. The most encouraging part of his game was his lack of turnovers, finishing the year with only five interceptions.
His seemingly average rookie year is exactly why CBS Sports' Ryan Wilson dug into the numbers. He wanted to see how Dart stacked up against other rookie starters historically, and his model spit out three very interesting names: Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, and Marcus Mariota:
"Dart's closest rookie profiles produced a variety of successful Year 2 seasons. Bo Nix's statistical output most closely resembles Dart's projected production, while Russell Wilson and Marcus Mariota represent more efficient versions of that same developmental path."
Jaxson Dart has three pretty enticing Year 2 paths with the Giants
Well, you know what time it is after seeing who his three closest comparisons are -- it's table time. To gauge what a Year 2 jump could eventually look like, here's how the three fared in their respective second seasons:
Pass yards | Touchdowns | Total QBR | Overall record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bo Nix | 3,931 | 25 | 58.3 | 14-3 |
Russell Wilson | 3,357 | 26 | 67.2 | 13-3 |
Marcus Mariota | 3,426 | 26 | 59.1 | 8-7 |
The Bo Nix path would be objectively awesome. Nix threw the ball 612 times in his second year, flirting with that illustrious 4,000-yard mark. If the G-Men want Dart to replicate those numbers, they'll have to move away from John Harbaugh's run-heavy approach and air it out.
Of course, throwing the ball that much only works if you're actually executing at a high level. That's where the other two paths look a lot more enticing.
So if New York wants to build a contender without forcing Dart to throw 40 times a game, the Russell Wilson route is a great alternative.
Wilson went 13-3 and won a Super Bowl by simply not trying to do too much himself. That was peak "Legion of Boom" days, when Seattle's elite defense and a powerful ground game under Marshawn Lynch carried the team. The Seahawks didn't ask Russ to be a hero; they just needed him to protect the ball and not lose them games.
Fortunately for Big Blue, that is almost the exact same formula they are installing right now. The defense should be formidable this season, and the offense is built to go through the ground game. All Dart has to do is be the best game manager he can be while he continues to adapt to life in the NFL.
Mariota’s spot on this list brings a much-needed dose of reality about surviving with a still-developing roster. His 2016 Titans team wasn’t exactly overflowing with weapons, putting considerably more pressure on the young quarterback to create offense himself. Aside from running back DeMarco Murray, there wasn't much else helping Mariota out.
And while New York's roster isn't as barren as Tennessee's was, there are still some unfortunate similarities, starting with a lackluster receiver group. Fortunately -- or unfortunately, depending on how you feel about him using his legs -- Dart has wheels.
He ran for 487 yards and nine scores last year, making up for the lack of pop on offense. Even if the receiver depth isn't a dream-case scenario, Mariota's Year 2 leap proved that you can still produce at a high level without a room full of superstars around you.
Everyone's chomping at the bit to see what Dart will look like in Year 2. If it's anything like Nix, Wilson, or Mariota, Big Blue Nation will be taking to the streets. Whether he goes off for 4,000 yards or finds his way to January behind a physical, ground-heavy offense, there are some pretty encouraging precedents sitting in front of him.
So if you catch me next winter staring down a football with a knife and fork, you'll know exactly why. The precedent is right there, and the sophomore surge is officially on deck.
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