Projecting Jaxson Dart’s Year 2 leap after savvy Brian Callahan hire

What do quarterbacks Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, and now Jaxson Dart all have in common? Brian Callahan. That's right, John Harbaugh has officially hired former Tennessee Titans head coach Brian Callahan as New York's next QBs coach.

The 41-year-old now joins forces with offensive coordinator Matt Nagy in hopes of getting the best out of Big Blue’s second-year quarterback, Jaxson Dart. Funny enough, Callahan actually interviewed for the OC job before Harby handed it to Nagy. Apparently, there were no hard feelings.

Callahan has a long history working with quarterbacks. He’s coached Stafford, Burrow, Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Cam Ward. Veterans, rookies, one fish, two fish, red fish, blue fish -- if they’ve lined up under center, there’s a good chance Cally’s had a hand in it.

This is a slam-dunk hire, with Dart being the biggest beneficiary of it. With Callahan and Nagy working together, I thought it would be fun to put together some predictions for what Giants fans can expect for 2025's fourth-place finisher of Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Here’s how I built the ranges.

I went back through the last decade of quarterbacks coached by Callahan and Nagy and focused on legitimate sample sizes, mostly full seasons. I wanted the whole spectrum: Stafford and Burrow on the high end, Dalton, Will Levis, Jake Browning, and Brandon Allen, etc., on the lower end.

First thing I looked at was volume. Callahan’s offenses with Stafford and Burrow regularly pushed 560 to 600 attempts. Nagy’s units with Mahomes and Alex Smith lived in that same neighborhood. Even his Chicago Bears offenses cleared 430 attempts. That gave me a realistic attempt window for Dart.

Then came efficiency. The Burrow and Mahomes years set the ceiling. The Dalton, Levis, and Bears stretches set the floor. Somewhere between those two is the range of outcomes for a second-year quarterback with a lot of good already, but still growing into his own.

For rushing, I leaned more into Dart's quads than the coaches. Nagy has always used mobility when he has it, and Dart’s rookie numbers tell us that part of his game isn’t going away anytime soon, no matter how many people tell him to play less recklessly.

So the low, middle, and high projections aren’t exactly guesses. They’re built off historical volume, efficiency bands, and Dart’s Year 1 baseline. Low is stagnation. Middle is steady growth. High is the leap. That’s the framework.

Jaxson Dart’s 2026 stat projection under Brian Callahan and Matt Nagy breakdown

So without further ado, let's break it all down, starting with the low-end outcome.

This range assumes the new offensive system installs smoothly, but Dart doesn’t make the full Year 2 leap. Callahan’s track record with non-elite quarterbacks shows moderate volume and middling efficiency when talent or protection isn’t quite there. Think Jake Browning and Brandon Allen with a splash of late-career Andy Dalton or early-stage Will Levis.

The interceptions climbing into the low double digits is realistic. Both Nagy and Callahan have historically lived in that 10–14 INT window with aggressive quarterbacks. Dart would still be a weapon with his legs, but if the passing game stalls or the supporting cast isn’t consistent (practically a guarantee at this point), the 22-year-old becomes more of a “he could still start” season than a breakout.

As for the middle outcome, this is the most realistic projection based on historical Year 2 jumps under Callahan. When he’s had quarterbacks take the next step, the passing volume increases, and touchdowns follow. Burrow’s leap in Cincinnati is the blueprint, just scaled to Dart’s skill set.

Nagy’s influence matters here, too. His offenses, especially in Kansas City, weren’t afraid to push the ball vertically while still incorporating quarterback mobility, especially in his early KC days. Dart wouldn’t suddenly become a pure pocket passer. The rushing element would remain built-in rather than improvised. Although it is nice he has that skill in his toolbox. In this range, you’re looking at a quarterback who’s more "game manager" than anything truly special.

Now let's talk ceiling.

This is where the rubber meets the road. Cally has shown he can oversee high-volume, high-efficiency seasons when the quarterback talent is there. Nagy has proven he’ll let his guy throw his arm off if the matchups allow it. If the former Ole Miss star processes faster in Year 2, the protection holds up, and injuries go away, 4,000-plus yards becomes very realistic.

The key here is touchdown growth without interception growth. Both coaches have experience managing aggressive passers who push the ball but don’t put the ball in harm's way. If Dart keeps his mobility as a short-yardage weapon and adds command at the line of scrimmage, this turns into a Pro Bowl-type season.

Not MVP territory yet, but absolutely the kind of leap that changes how the league views the Giants moving forward.

Harbaugh's put together one heck of an offensive brain trust. And with Callahan as the latest addition to an offensive group already featuring Nagy, Greg Roman, Tim Kelly, and Willie Taggart, the sky is the limit for Big Blue's offense. It finally feels like things are heading in the right direction... finally.