After the New York Giants blew out the Las Vegas Raiders this past weekend, they no longer control their own destiny to pick first in the 2026 NFL Draft. They moved down to the second pick due to a blatantly tanking Raiders team, but the door isn't closed on the Giants making the top pick just yet.
If the Giants lose to the Dallas Cowboys and the Raiders upset the Kansas City Chiefs, they will hold the strength of schedule tiebreaker over them, meaning they would have the No. 1 pick. However, CBS Sports' John Breech has both teams losing to their divisional foes on Sunday afternoon.
Breech projected that the Giants will lose 30-20 at home, while the Chris Oladokun-led Chiefs narrowly escape the Geno Smith-less Raiders in what could be Pete Carroll's final game at the helm in Las Vegas, which means that Indiana's Fernando Mendoza will most likely be headed to Sin City.
Giants have virtually no chance of picking first in the 2026 NFL Draft
A loss to the Cowboys feels pretty likely, especially since Dallas is still playing their starters this weekend. However, the Raiders shut down both Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby for the season and have completely given up on the season despite entering the the year with relatively high expectations.
Since Patrick Mahomes (and Gardner Minshew) went down, the Chiefs have been forced to start Oladokun, and it hasn't gone well. They narrowly lost to the Broncos on Christmas, but the Raider defense is significantly worse than a Denver unit that leads the NFL in nearly every defensive stat.
The only impact player they're still trotting out there is rookie Ashton Jeanty, and even he can't do anything behind a dysfunctional offensive line. Kenny Pickett is likely to draw the start in Week 18, which means that the Raiders genuinely might be better off throwing in the towel before things get bad.
Carroll is also coaching for his job, but that isn't relevant. Their roster might not even be NFL caliber, which is pathetic considering they traded for Geno and drafted Jeanty in hopes of cementing themselves as a win-now franchise in the AFC. Instead, everything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong.
The Giants at least have a franchise quarterback in Dart, and picking first (or second) would provide them with an opportunity to trade down with a quarterback-needy team like the Raiders or New York Jets, which would net the franchise a significant haul of draft compensation in return for No. 1.
However, all of this still hinges on whether Dante Moore declares for the draft.