Upon further reflection, New York Giants rookie edge rusher Arvell Reese is having us question the power of projections.
Reese, an All-American at Ohio State, spent much of the pre-draft process mocked to the Jets at No. 2. Things changed in the final weeks before the draft, though, as Texas Tech standout David Bailey overtook him as the odds-on favorite.
Indeed, the Jets took Bailey at No. 2, and Reese surprisingly fell to the Giants at No. 5. What made that pick so intriguing is that the Giants had widely been expected to address either the offensive line or the secondary.
So much for business going as expected.
The Dexter Lawrence trade allowed the Giants to select Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa at No. 10, ensuring that two All-Americans would start their careers in New York.
Yet, Reese remains surprisingly underdiscussed, and CBS Sports’ Mike Renner isn’t helping matters. While predicting the 2026 All-Rookie team, Renner snubbed both of the Giants’ first-round picks.
Renner forecasted that the Dolphins’ Kadyn Proctor and the Ravens’ Vega Ioane will earn the guard spots. Mauigoa, who played right tackle at Miami, is slated to start at right guard.
“I believe Olaivavega Ioane’s experience at guard will make his transition easier,” Renner wrote, “while Kadyn Proctor’s biggest weakness — his foot speed — gets mitigated by moving inside.”
As for edge rusher, Renner went with Bailey and the Buccaneers’ Rueben Bain Jr.
“They both go to great spots with no restrictions to a full workload as rookies,” Renner said of the duo. “Double-digit sacks aren’t out of the question for either.”
Renner projected that the Dolphins’ Jacob Rodriguez and the Commanders’ Sonny Styles will be the All-Rookie inside linebackers. Reese is expected to line up inside next to Tremaine Edmunds while also seeing snaps as an edge rusher.
The question, though, is whether Reese was seemingly omitted in part because Renner has unrealistic expectations for Bailey and Bain.
Atlanta’s James Pearce Jr. was the only rookie to record double-digit sacks last year, and the first to do so since Micah Parsons in 2021.
Bailey had 14.5 sacks in his first three college seasons before matching that total last year. Bain set a career-high with 9.5 sacks last season, significantly up from the 3.5 he had the previous season.
As for Reese, he ended last year with 6.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Understandably, no one is writing that he’ll join such an exclusive club to open his NFL career.
Even if Reese sees more of his final snaps at inside linebacker, his talent alone — and his fit in John Harbaugh’s 3-4 defense — have him positioned to play a massive role for the rebuilding Giants.
Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor is the only player in Giants history to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, accomplishing the feat in 1981.
And, as Reese already proved, projections only mean so much, especially when he’s involved.
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