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Predicting when J.J. McCarthy could make his first start for Giants

Nine.
ByMatt Sidney
Minnesota Vikings - quarterback J.J. McCarthy
Minnesota Vikings - quarterback J.J. McCarthy | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The J.J. McCarthy era in East Rutherford is coming. Probably. Eventually. Maybe.

The New York Giants didn’t send a 2027 fifth-round pick to the Minnesota Vikings just to give the 23-year-old a slightly better seat to watch Jameis Winston play quarterback. At some point, you’d have to imagine head coach John Harbaugh wants to see what he has in the former No. 10 overall pick, especially with Jaxson Dart sidelined for the remainder of the season.

Figuring out exactly when that happens is where things get tricky. Harbs has already named Winston the Week 4 starter against Arizona, and the games after that don’t exactly provide an obvious opening for McCarthy.

As long as Famous Jameis keeps winning and doesn’t actively help the Giants lose, he could hang on to the job for the rest of the season. But through seven-plus quarters of football in relief of Dart, it's reasonable to expect that won't happen over the next 14 games.

Week 9 feels like the sweet spot for J.J. McCarthy’s first Giants start

Looking at the upcoming schedule, it’s hard to find a realistic spot for a McCarthy start before New York’s Week 8 bye.

Winston should start Week 5 in Washington, where the G-Men will have a chance to improve on their 1-0 division record against a Commanders team currently without Jayden Daniels. Throwing McCarthy into his first NFC East game after less than two weeks on the team doesn't make much sense. Especially when Winston facing Marcus Mariota gives us a battle between the first two picks of the 2015 NFL Draft. You think I’m passing that up?

Week 6 against New Orleans is interesting. Winston getting a crack at one of his former teams feels like another natural spot to stick with him, and the Saints and Tyler Shough look considerably more competent than expected through three games.

Then comes a Week 7 trip to Houston. Even with the Texans sitting at 0-3, I’m not sure introducing McCarthy to DeMeco Ryans’ defense on the road is how Harbaugh wants to kick the McCarthy era off, especially with their bye waiting for them right after.

And that’s where I keep landing: Week 9. The irony of "Nine" starting in Week 9 isn't lost on me, but the internet memes will have to wait.

The bye gives McCarthy more than a month to learn Matt Nagy’s offense and gives the coaching staff nearly two weeks to get him prepared to start.

The opponent complicates things. Philadelphia isn’t exactly the friendliest welcome party for a new starting QB, even after getting gobsmacked by third-stringer Case Keenum and the Bears, 27-7, on Monday night.

If the Giants aren’t ready then Week 10 against the Commies feels like the next logical game before a tough Jaguars-Colts-49ers-Seahawks stretch. Otherwise, fans might be waiting much longer.

Of course, Winston can make all of this irrelevant by winning games and getting the offense moving. I’d also expect Harbs to sprinkle a little bit of McCarthy into some packages before throwing him out there to start, especially since his mobility gives Nagy something closer to the offense they originally designed around Dart.

For now, circle Week 9 in pencil. If Famous Jameis is still working through whatever’s got him struggling and Big Blue goes into the bye looking to shake things up, that feels like the perfect time to pivot to McCarthy and see what they have in the once-promising first-rounder.

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