The Giants Will Steal A Week 4 Win
By Eric Mollo
Giants 27 Bills 24
I know this isn’t a popular pick among football fans… The Giants are on the road, going up against a top defense, facing one of the NFL’s hottest QB’s—but… I still think they’re going to win.
It goes without saying the Giants haven’t been great in the season’s first few weeks. In the NFL though, it’s not very hard to tell when the not-so-good teams look overmatched. And I won’t go as far to say that the Giants have looked overmatched in any of their first three games. Maybe in some facets, sure. They have a lot of trouble defending those underneath passes, where backs are carving them up for big gains. But to come within a few plays of beating legitimate contenders like Atlanta and Dallas, well, that says something.
Sep 13, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Lance Dunbar (25) runs with the ball after a reception late in the fourth quarter against New York Giants safety Landon Collins (21) and linebacker Uani Unga (47) at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
If you’re of the mindset “a loss is a loss,” I agree with you from a standings standpoint. Practically speaking, it’s still a failure. But I’m very, very reluctant to say they can’t build off two well played losses and a sloppy third win (remember: Thursday night games are almost always sloppy)—a game which, in my mind, they looked much better than their opponent (Washington).
And if you disagree, take a look at Week 17 in 2007. I do believe—and I have to think many believe—the Giants gained confidence after their loss to the Patriots. While they haven’t looked as sharp this season, I think they have reason to be confident heading to Buffalo. From Eli Manning limiting his turnovers to the defense keeping three good running teams from scampering all over the field, the Giants have generally taken control of their games. And I don’t expect that to change in Buffalo.
The big questions the Giants face are 1) How will they stop Tyrod Taylor? 2) Can they limit the big plays? And 3) Will they find their identity on offense?
Taylor is such a great story. He’s made a few stellar touchdown throws, and being a dual-threat quarterback with offensive weapons surrounding him, he’s a nice fit in today’s NFL. I am pulling for him. However, I’m just not sold—not yet.
It’s been three weeks, and two of those have been against struggling defenses. Taylor’s shown he is a playmaker, a level above game-manager, but he is not a proven starter. There wasn’t exactly ever any inkling of a QB-battle while he was in Baltimore either. You could make the argument the Ravens would never turn their back on Joe Flacco, but if Tyrod Taylor looked that good, Baltimore would’ve given him at least a small look. My point: I’m just not entirely sure which Taylor will show up Sunday—the 3 interceptions vs. Patriots-Taylor, or the Taylor coming off a red-hot Week 3.
It’s a good test for the Giants. They are facing a quarterback coming off a great week and who seems to be playing with some confidence, but if they could finally generate pressure against a Bills line that’s not playing particularly great football, they could change Taylor’s tune a bit. That said, I do think the Bills are going to put up some points on Sunday primarily because he’s shown he can make plays in the pocket, and that will really challenge the Giants’ D. But if the Giants want to be a playoff team, they need to show they can slow down a hot offense. Facing a relatively unproven Taylor on the road is a good test, something I think they can take on after generally limiting Dallas and Atlanta in the first couple of weeks.
Sep 27, 2015; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor (5) throws a pass against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
As for the other two questions… well, McCoy and Watkins are questionable and may not even suit up. It takes away two playmakers, and it leaves the Bills with one less threat out of the backfield—that should ease the Giants woes underneath. But they still have to deal with Percy Harvin and Karlos Williams. Getting Dominique-Rodgers Cromartie should help, and if Steve Spagnuolo shuffles the looks his linebackers are giving the Bills, they could slow Buffalo’s passing attack. Those two, combined with some of the blitz packages Spagnuolo will throw at the Bills, I think will throw Buffalo in a bit of a loop.
I think question number three is the biggest question the Giants are looking to answer, and it’s really the one that will prove to be the difference in Sunday’s game. Not having Victor Cruz hurts because they won’t be able to expand the offensive playbook the way they wanted to this week.
But right now they look like a unit trying to gel. While they’re not turning the ball over at a high rate, they’re not really playing consistently on offense either, and that along with those big plays their defense is letting up is what’s keeping teams in games.
Oct 5, 2014; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham (13) makes a touchdown catch in front of Atlanta Falcons cornerback Robert Alford (23) during the second half at MetLife Stadium. The New York Giants defeated the Atlanta Falcons 30-20.Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports
If Odell Beckham continues to make big plays, Rueben Randle can get enough separation to draw some targets his way like he did against Washington, and their running backs get a few more big gains—all while continuing not to turn the ball over—I think the Giants will be in good shape. With the Bills’ offense hurting, I think their defense will be on the field a lot Sunday and it will put the Giants in a position to execute those three things and get the offense going.
The injuries to McCoy and Watkins will allow the Giants to get some more opportunities on offense and to—at least in the short term—find an offensive identity and put some points on the board. Just enough to give them a 27-24 victory in a game on Sunday that looks like it’ll be a good one.