New York Giants: Final evaluation of this draft’s QB class
By Henry Buggy
The last time the New York Giants held a top five draft pick they acquired Eli Manning through a trade with the San Diego Chargers.
Manning has helped double the franchise’s Lombardi Trophies, leading Big Blue to Super Bowl titles during the 2007 and 2011 seasons.
New York Giants first-year general manager Dave Gettleman and new head coach Pat Shurmur both believe No. 10 can still be a franchise quarterback. They also know a future without Manning is not far around the corner.
The four-time Pro Bowl quarterback turned 37-years-old in January.
The Giants used a third-round selection last year on “Manning’s successor,” taking Davis Webb with the 87th overall pick. But Webb was former general manager Jerry Reese’s selection, not Gettleman’s.
Big Blue’s new general manager has addressed the team’s inept offensive line since taking over, signing top free agent left tackle Nate Solder.
New York Giants
The hope is that an improved offensive line will open up the ground game for New York’s offense, while also giving Manning more time in the pocket to make throws downfield. If the Giants decided to add a player like Saquon Barkley to their roster, it would immediately increase their chances of making the playoffs in 2018.
But Gettleman and Shurmur also have to look to the future. This year’s draft class is loaded with talent at the quarterback position.
There are no sure-fire quarterback prospects in this class, but there is more than a handful of quarterbacks that have the potential to develop into something special.
There could be six quarterbacks taken in the first-round. The Giants have to decide whether any of them are worthy of the No. 2 overall pick. Gettleman addressed how important the decision is at Big Blue’s pre-draft press conference, via New York’s team website.
"“Well, when you’re picking this high, if you make a mistake, you’re done. We talk that when you miss on a quarterback, you really hurt the franchise for probably five years. It’s a five-year mistake.”"
Top-Tier QBs
There were 10 quarterbacks selected in the 2017 NFL Draft. In this year’s class, there could be 15 quarterbacks taken by the time the draft wraps up Saturday night.
Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, and Baker Mayfield should be considered the top quarterback prospects in this year’s class. All four could be off the board within the first 10 picks. In fact, most draft analysts project all four quarterbacks to be taken within the first 12 selections.
Darnold is arguably the safest prospect of the four. His biggest issue coming out of USC is turnovers. But that shouldn’t deter teams from drafting him. He checks all the boxes in terms of size, arm strength, accuracy, and leadership.
NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah and ESPN’s Todd McShay both list Darnold as the top quarterback prospect in this year’s class.
He is arguably the most complete quarterback in the 2018 class. He’s also the least riskiest selection of the top four.
While Darnold should be considered the top quarterback, Rosen, Allen, and Mayfield are not far behind.
Allen has been the biggest riser during the draft evaluation process. NFL evaluators love his big arm and prototypical quarterback frame. But his game tape and completion percentage (56.2) at Wyoming should also make general managers nervous.
Of the top four, Allen is likely the riskiest draft selection. He has the potential to develop into a Ben Roethlisberger but could also end up being the next Christian Hackenberg or JaMarcus Russell. Size and arm strength don’t always necessarily translate to the next level, but it did for Matthew Stafford.
Stafford also led Georgia to back-to-back double-digit winning seasons in the SEC before entering the league.
For those reasons, Rosen and Mayfield should be slotted just slightly ahead of Allen. But it’s not as though any of the top four prospects are flawless.
Questions surround Rosen’s durability and his leadership qualities. But of the four prospects, the UCLA quarterback may have the highest ceiling. Rosen has the ability to make jaw-dropping throws in tight windows and is arguably the best pure passer in the 2018 class.
Rosen may not be an ideal fit for Gettleman or the Giants, but his upside potential and talent should make him the second best quarterback in this year’s class.
Mayfield isn’t far behind. The only knock on the Heisman Trophy winner is size. Based on his tape and production, Pro Football Focus lists him as the No. 1 overall player in this year’s class. Darnold takes the second spot on PFF’s Big Board.
Anyone that has watched Mayfield play during his collegiate career knows he is the definition of a gamer. But that doesn’t mean he is worthy of a top five selection.
He could have the impact of a Russell Wilson at the next level. He could also be the next Case Keenum. The success of both players are undoubtedly reasons he is being considered a top 10 selection.
All four prospects have franchise-quarterback potential.
Darnold is the safest. Rosen has the highest upside potential, making him No. 2. Mayfield takes the third spot based on his college tape and the recent track record of quarterbacks with similar skill sets. Allen takes the last spot in the top-tier of quarterbacks based purely on potential.
Second-Tier QBs
Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garroppolo, Dak Prescott, and Wilson are just some notable starting quarterbacks taken after the first-round.
Lamar Jackson and Mason Rudolph lead the list of second-tier quarterback prospects. Both players could be taken in the first-round. Jackson should be considered the fifth best quarterback in this year’s class.
Much like Allen, Jackson’s biggest question mark is his accuracy. He completed just 57 percent of his passes at Louisville. It didn’t stop him from winning a Heisman Trophy though.
Jackson also improved his completion percentage with each season, which should only make him more appealing as a potential franchise quarterback. He has the talent and skill set to become the league’s next Michael Vick in terms of dual-threat ability, but he does not have the frame to take hits at the next level.
In the right system, Jackson could flourish. He is a raw talent that will need time to develop. Then again, all the quarterbacks in the second-tier will need time to develop. It’s up to general managers to decide whether they are worthy of a first- or second-round draft selections.
Rudolph is just behind Jackson in the second-tier of quarterback prospects. He has the size, arm strength, and accuracy teams look for, but some question whether his skill set will translate to the next level.
If Rudolph had led Oklahoma State to a Big 12 title, then maybe he would be at the top of this year’s class and Mayfield would be tagged a system quarterback. But that’s not what happened. Mayfield led the Sooners to three consecutive conference titles.
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Western Kentucky’s Mike White, Richmond’s Kyle Lauletta, and Washington State’s Luke Falk round out the second-tier of quarterback prospects.
Lauletta put himself on the map with an impressive performance at the Senior Bowl. All three have their flaws but could still prove to be draft steals a couple years down the road.
There are also some quarterbacks just outside the second-tier worth keeping an eye on. Texas Tech’s Nic Shimonek, Virginia’s Kurt Benkert, and Memphis’ Riley Ferguson all have shown promise at the collegiate level and have the talent to make an NFL roster.
Value of No. 2 Pick
None of the quarterbacks in the second-tier are worthy of the No. 2 overall pick. Only Gettleman can decide if any or all of the quarterbacks in the top-tier are worthy of Big Blue’s highest draft selection since 1981.
If the Cleveland Browns decide to pass on Darnold, Gettleman’s decision should be a no-brainer. But if the Browns take the Trojans quarterback, it’s anyone’s guess what Big Blue will do.
It all depends on their evaluation of this year’s quarterback class. Rosen is the only other quarterback worthy of the No. 2 overall pick, in my opinion. But that doesn’t mean he will be a great fit with the Giants, or that he doesn’t come with risks.
Arguments could also be made for Allen and Mayfield, but both players come with more uncertainty.
Next: New York Giants Top 15 First-Round Draft Picks All-Time
The Giants could seek a king’s ransom with the No. 2 overall pick if they are not in “love” with a quarterback prospect after the Browns selection. Big Blue’s selection will have a ripple effect on the franchise for year’s to come.
Barkley and Bradley Chubb remain valid non-quarterback options. But there’s also no questioning what’s the most valuable position in football.