New York Giants superstar wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. is inching closer to finally being cleared for football activity.
That’s great news for a New York Giants team that desperately needs him heading into this season. Unfortunately, the consequence of Beckham’s good health leads to a possible contract showdown with the front office.
Thus far, there have been no signs from Giants ownership that the team is willing to rush a new deal.
And quite honestly, there shouldn’t be a rush—at least not until the regular season is well underway.
Let’s face it, the team, OBJ and especially his agent know that New York needs No. 13 in order to be successful. The franchise’s embarrassing 3-13 meltdown in 2017 is evidence enough. But a look at the Giants current and future cap situations will help us hash out why waiting on Beckham’s new deal is the best route available.
New York Giants cap outlook for 2018
First things first, the team’s 2018 salary cap room is strapped.
Per Over the Cap, the Giants currently have about $8.3 million in cap space as of June 4. Second-overall pick Saquon Barkley has yet to sign his rookie contract that will be slotted for a minimum $5.671 million cap hit this season.
For Beckham, there’s not much room to fit his desired $20 million per year request. He remains set to earn a fully guaranteed, fifth-year option worth $8.459 million this season.
The Athletic’s Patricia Traina executed a perfect example of how the G-Men could theoretically issue a five-year extension in 2018 while keeping OBJ’s cap number the same. The result: $104.709 million with $65.5 million guaranteed through 2023.
Some thoughts about OBJ's next contract, including a proposed structure (and why I think they'll wait until LATER this year to get it done). https://t.co/urUjD5lECs
— Patricia Traina (@Patricia_Traina) June 1, 2018
The sacrifice would be a monster $25 million signing bonus and sky-high base salaries in years two and three of the extension that would likely be fully guaranteed because of the financial uncertainty following the expiring 2011 CBA after the 2020 season.
To give a non-quarterback player that much in guaranteed money and back-end salary protection is risky. Healthwise, Beckham must first prove that he is the same player he was before breaking his ankle last season. Through four years, OBJ has only started 47 of his possible 64 games, so the Giants need to know for certain that his ankle won’t lead to other ailments. Shades of Victor Cruz’s demise come to mind.
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But back to the cap: The G-Men’s flexibility this season is limited by their dead cap (money accounted for against the salary cap for players no longer on the team). The Giants currently have the third highest total in the league with $21.1 million in dead money, which eats up 11.8 percent of their cap.
Former Giant Jason Pierre-Paul accounts for $15 million due to substantial prorated bonuses and guarantees by former general manager Jerry Reese. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie makes up $2 million while Dwayne Harris and Brandon Marshall eat up $1.6 and $1 million, respectively.
Those totals will vanish in 2019, and Dave Gettleman will have the flexibility to offer OBJ the deal that he wants and a deal that the Giants can afford to give.
New York Giants cap outlook for 2019
This offseason, we saw quarterbacks sign contracts that kept inflating that specific position’s market for the next guy. Jimmy Garoppolo, Blake Bortles, Alex Smith, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, and now Aaron Rodgers is on deck. For the wide receiver position, there are limited premier options—with the exception of Stefon Diggs and Golden Tate—set to hit unrestricted free agency in 2019.
The market, therefore, shouldn’t see seismic financial shifts. The Giants shouldn’t have to worry, compete or react to other teams who could raise the monetary threshold with gaudy contracts, which would force New York to up the ante for Beckham’s deal.
In other great news, the Giants don’t have any notable superstars with expiring contracts in 2019, aside from Landon Collins. It’s still too early to forecast, but the Giants are predicted to start 2019’s official league year with around $40 million in cap space. That doesn’t include any adjustments and credits from 2018.
As has been the case for the past seven consecutive seasons, the NFL has seen an increase each year in unadjusted cap limit for all 32 teams. Currently, at $177.2 million for 2018 (a bump from 2017’s $167 million league-wide cap limit), it’s highly probable there will be another significant limit climb in 2019.
The Giants will have plenty of future capital to play with, which is the reason why co-owner John Mara isn’t stressing about Beckham’s future deal. Team capologist and assistant general manager Kevin Abrams has done a phenomenal job in forecasting the Giants future finances. After 16 seasons with the team, this isn’t his first rodeo when it comes to locking up superstar players.
Ultimately, it’s all up to Beckham…
Of course, there is the fear that Beckham could just hold out like he initially promised.
Everything we have heard up to this point suggests that isn’t the route the most electrifying player in the game will take. He hasn’t played a game since Week 5 of 2017. Another missed season would hurt his wallet more than it would hurt the New York Giants, who made sure to add plenty of receiver depth this offseason.
Also, the word around the Giants camp is that head coach Pat Shurmur and Beckham have established a great relationship this offseason. The 25-year-old’s attendance at OTAs is a great sign of that bond.
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My prediction is that a deal will ultimately get done this year, but the ideal timeline is not until the three-time Pro Bowler plays at least six games at full strength. Despite all the outside noise and bad rap he gets off of the field, Beckham is undoubtedly a special athlete who hasn’t even scratched the surface of his potential yet.
He’ll get compensated handsomely, but a little patience first will certainly pay off in the long run.