As a whole, the Vegas sports betting industry has upped their over/under win line for the NY Giants 2020 win total after the draft.
To be short, even though the odds have only gone up a little bit, it is a positive sign that the powers that be in knowns as the Las Vegas oddsmakers – AKA knowns as the most knowledgable resource for predicting NFL outcomes – appear to have liked what the NY Giants accomplished in the 2020 NFL Draft as the number went up post-draft in most sportsbooks.
To be fair, there were some sites like Oddsshark.com that already had the NY Giants at an over/under win total pre and post-draft. But, after doing research the industry as a whole has upped the number to 6.5 at a normal -110 vig (which is a stronger indicator than the former +100 odds on the 6.5 total).
Before the draft, most Vegas sportsbooks had the NY Giants listed at 5.5 wins, 6 wins, or 6.5 wins with plus odds (meaning it was a weaker bet). Now, just about every accredited book has the line firmly at 6.5, some even offering -110 (standard vig) on that bet.
While these may seem like only small increases, it means something as it shows the people that are on the money far more than anyone else when it comes to predicting NFL outcomes after Big Blue’s widely regarded positive 2020 NFL draft results.
It takes a lot to move Vegas lines even in small increments, so this really does mean something.
Right now, ActionNetwork.com lists the NY Giants win total at 6.5 with a normal -110 vig. That places them in a tie for the seventh-worst team in the league based on projections, which I think even the biggest Big Blue fan would say is fair.
I don’t think I’m breaking any news when I tell you that Vegas Sportsbooks have a long history of being as right as an industry can be on the success of NFL teams, pre, during, and postseasons.
So while we may have missed out on Chase Young by losing the ‘Chase Young Bowl‘, Vegas must feel the NY Giants got better by drafting Andrew Thomas, Xavier McKinney, Matt Peart, and Darnay Holmes (the team’s first four – and most important – picks).
For people that don’t have much knowledge of the gambling industry, even just changing the 6.5 win total from plus odds to the normal -110 vig is not as small of a deal as it appears to be.
Vegas is right more than any other sports bettors and predictors, so this should give NY Giants fans even more confidence that Dave Gettleman crushed the 2020 NFL Draft.
Have the NY Giants Super Bowl odds changed, though?
Weirdly enough, the NY Giants’ chances of winning the Super Bowl (which is something I think we can all agree would be an absolute miracle) have stayed the same – fourth-worst odds in the NFL.
However, more factors are at play when discussing Super Bowl odds as you have to take into account things like division strength, schedule, and the other 32 teams while the over/under win total just has to do with the NY Giants.
So while Vegas has the Big Blue in essence as the 7th-worth team based on the over/under win total, they still are in the bottom four in terms of chances of winning the Super Bowl.
Not to worry though, as again, many more factors are at play with the Super Bowl odds and the individual over/under win totals are a better indicator of how the books feel about a team.
These odds should stay pretty stagnant throughout the rest of the offseason barring any major injury or signing, and I believe the 6.5 over/under win total is a fair assessment, and that the NY Giants did in fact deserve the slight bump in odds they got after crushing the draft.
The games still have to be played on the field, but having Vegas books increase your chances of winning more games in their opinion is good news, plain and simple.